Reply #27: Really? You need it tomorrow?

[NNadir]

The oil is not going to disappear next Tuesday. It will in fact disappear over the next decade(s).

As shortages increase there will be several immediate effects, most of them good in my view:

1) Increased conservation. This is exactly what happened when Cheney and Ken Lay tried to rape California on electricity. When gas hits 5 bucks a gallon, all of a sudden they'll be a run on Priuses. I lived through the 1970's, when the Toyota Corolla went from being a much maligned "lawn-mover" to a car with high demand. (As I recall Detroit complained endlessly about "unfair competition" a complaint that will resurrect even though they thought hybrid technology was only useful for SUV's.)

2) There will be an immediate demand for research into alternative energy. The old Carter era syn-fuels lab notebooks will be dusted off. As the cost of post peak oil rises, its alternatives become more competitive. The chief impediment to using these techniques has always been cost. Synfuels can fuel make aircraft fuel and diesel fuel. It has been well known for sometime, for instance, that methyl ether runs diesel engines very well and very cleanly. Methyl ether is readily available from syn gas (hydrogen and CO mixtures). There is of course a slight infrastructure cost: Changing some engine seals, fuel tanks, and fueling stations, but I don't imagine that it will be particularly more painful than it was to switch from leaded to unleaded - about which there was a great hem and haw at the time.) It is probably unfortunate for the short run, but the immediate source for synfuels will probably be coal gassification. The alternatives will certainly become available in short order however, lead by nations like Japan.

3) I am hoping that the world shipping fleet will ultimately go nuclear in the long run. The technology is well established. Over the short run, synfuels will prevail.

4) As electricity shoots up, solar installations will increase, particularly in areas amenable to them, paid for by the consumer who simply wants to reduce high fossil fuel related costs.

5) I think the timelines for these things are actually much shorter than general panic wants to present in threads like this one. Germany went from imported oil to a syn-fuels program in a few short years during World War II. What's more, compared to them, we live in the golden age of chemistry. We have better catalysts and better plant materials and better systems of control and automation. Not much true R&D will be required.

6) Civilized nations such as France, and Japan have been exploring high tech nuclear plant designs for some time, as have the Indians. They will be building advanced power plants with cheap redundant passive safety systems, high fuel burn-up (reducing "waste") and heat exchange systems readily adaptable to multiple use: including reforming. (We in the United States will be jerking off.) The physics of nuclear power plants are understood intrinically, especially after thousands of "reactor-years" of experience. They are fairly ready to begin building, and will once the "public perception" issue - an issue of ignorance rather than technical realities - is ameliorated by the presence of the "wolf at the door."

7) I would imagine the institution of these infrastructure changes will make lots of jobs in countries that adapt them, high tech industrial jobs at that. The living standards in such places might actually rise under these circumstances.

8) There will be however, considerable local economic disruptions as these events take place. Unfortunately that disruption is likely to be most severe in the United States which has had its head up its ass, right and left, on the issue of energy ever since Jimmy Carter left office. We have yet, for instance, to convince the majority of Americans that hydrogen is NOT a form of energy. Maybe though, just maybe, we'll wake up and smell the exhaust before then.