Let's not give up Deanies--it is going to get interesting now

[CMT]

First, congratulations to Kerry and Edwards supporters the trends the polls indicated were real and you won a strong first and second place victory.

Dean got a bit of a spanking, though nowhere near as bad as Gep did. My feeling on this third place showing for Dean in Iowa and fourth for Gep is this: voters were turned off by the negative campaigning by Dean and Gep and took it out on them at the polls.

So its on New Hampshire. I'm as strong for Dean as always but even I acknowledge that Dean must win New Hampshire to continue as a viable candidate. This is only my opinion.

The latest ARG poll still has Dean at the 28% he has been at for four days. Kerry has now leap-frogged over Clark and has 20% and Clark is at 19%. Edwards has 8%.

I know that there will be post-Iowa bounces for both Kerry and Edwards. Kerry will probably in todays polling begin coming very close to Dean. In the next day or two he will probably overtake Dean. Edwards will probably begin creeping up on Clark.

But keep in mind, in '88 Mike Dukakis came in third behind Gep and Paul Simon in the Iowa caucuses and then came back to win NH a week later. Also, in '88 the sitting VP George HW Bush also came in third behind Bob Dole and Pat Robertson and ended up winning NH. The moral of the story is a loss in Iowa doesn't necessarly mean a loss in NH.

I think it is going to be a close fight between Dean and Kerry for first in NH. If one good thing came out of this for Dean it is this--he is no longer the front runner. Now, hopefully, the media will begin paying some attention to the other candidates and their foibles and backtracks and not only on Howard Dean.

I also think that Dr. Dean must get back in NH talking about one of his core issues--health care and his more than respectable record on it in Vermont. Women voters are the key and healthcare is their top concern in NH according to the polls.

Finally, I think the Dean campaign learned it will be more positive this week and I'm thinking the grudge match this time may be more Kerry vs. Clark especially if Clark begins to fall behind. Clark's crack about Kerry being a "Lt" and himself the "general" won't help.

Keep your head's high fellow Deanies, we still can come out of this on top--Iowa was a battle and we survived the win, place, and show and now NH is ground zero and our support there is much more solid.

P.S.
Deanies, remember this too we are actually 1-1--we did win DC!!