Reply #5: I agree with your point but don't get your arithmetic.

[spooky3]

if whites (excluding Repubs., who are likely to be white also, but this is a conservative estimate) are 56% of the Dem. electorate and blacks are 29% of it, then I don't think she needs that high of a percent:

88% of the black vote X 29% = 25 out of 100 votes go for Obama

To match or exceed this this, 25 < 46% of 56%.

46% is a lot less than 70%.

Also, don't forget that Latinos of any race are a greater % of the Dem. electorate nationally than are non-Latino blacks.

The reports on NPR's affiliate, as I was driving home in VA, indicated that the reporters believed that a lot of Republicans were crossing over to vote in the Dem. primary because they reasoned that the Rep. race is over. They based this on the exit polls showing that a HUGE % (over 60%) of people who voted in the Repub. primary (both of which are open) said they were "conservative", a much higher proportion than believed to exist in the Republican population. That is, the Repub. turnout was much lower than the Dems. (even though VA has voted Repub. in the recent past Pres. elections), and that combined with an unrepresentative mix in the Repub. vote suggested to the radio people that a lot of moderate Republicans decided to vote in the Dem. primary. Whether that's right, and how you interpret it (whether they are truly Obama supporters, whether they just want to interfere with the Dems.' primary process, etc.), is up to you, but it does complicate the interpretation of the VA results.

One other complication: due to icy roads and resulting bumper to bumper traffic that usually does not occur on my route, it took me 1.5 hours to drive 5 miles home tonight, which usually takes 20 mins. Anyone who left work at 5:30 to vote (and most people have a longer commute than I do) would have lost the opportunity to vote. It was not all over the news that the roads were THIS bad. VA did not extend the open hours, though MD did, for 90 mins. How would these people have voted if they hadn't missed a chance to vote, and how many are there? Don't know. My hunch is that these non-voters might have been Obama rather than Clinton voters.