Ohio Does Its Magic: Hillary’s 3% Exit Poll Margin Morphs to 10% in the VoteTruthIsAll http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/OhioOldReliable.htm
Ohio just did for HRC what it did for Bush in 2004. Bush's Ohio vote share exceeded his "pristine" exit poll share by 5.4%.
Clinton's 2-party vote share exceeded her unadjusted (9pm) exit poll share by 3.6% (55.2 – 51.6%).
Clinton won the 2-party vote by a 10.6% margin (55.3 – 44.7%). But her unadjusted exit poll margin was just 3.4% (51.7 – 48.3%).
As is always the case, the Final Exit Poll was adjusted to match the vote count.
For comparison, the Unadjusted and Final Exit polls are provided below.
The final Zogby Ohio pre-election poll had the race dead even. The poll was confirmed by the unadjusted exit poll, just as it was in New Hampshire and in 2004 in the battleground states. John Zogby must be one awfully frustrated pollster. Since 2000, election fraud has consistently skewed his projections. But he never mentions the F-word.
It should be obvious by now to anyone who has analyzed pre- and post-election polling data since 2000 that primaries and general elections have been silently screaming election fraud. But the main stream media and the politicians keep blinders on the public while catapulting the misinformation that the pre and post-election polls are wrong and the vote count is correct. They never mention the probability of election fraud as the root cause of the polling discrepancies. Like 9/11, election fraud is a” third-rail” subject not to be openly discussed, much less investigated by the media.
Tommy Heinrich was a NY Yankee baseball player who played right field with Joe DiMaggio in center. His nickname was "Old Reliable" because he could always be counted on to deliver in the "clutch". Ohio is "Old Reliable" for the Republicans. It will deliver its phantom votes in the clutch for John McCain just like Diebold's CEO and Secretary of State Blackwell delivered them for Bush in 2004.
Stalin said it: It's not who votes. It's who counts.
Clinton Obama Margin
Vote 55.23 44.77 10.46
EPoll 51.65 48.35 3.30
Shift 3.58 -3.58 7.16
The probability that the 3.6% shift was due to chance is 1 in 4,436 (assuming a 2% exit poll margin of error).
Assuming a 3% MoE, the probability of the shift is 1 in 103.
Calculate the probability of a 3.58% 2-party shift from the unadjusted exit poll to the vote.
Assume a 2-3% margin of error (MoE) range.
Use the Excel normal distribution function:
Probability = Normdist (0.5165, 0.5523, MoE/1.96, true)
MoE Prob 1-in-
2.0% 0.02% 4,436
2.2% 0.07% 1,403
2.4% 0.17% 578
2.6% 0.35% 287
2.8% 0.61% 164
3.0% 0.97% 103
Ohio Primary
March 04, 2008
1612 Respondents
Final Exit Poll 9pm Exit poll
Mix Clinton Obama Mix Clinton Obama
Gender
Male 41% 50% 48% 41% 47% 52%
Female 59% 57% 41% 59% 54% 45%
Total 54.1% 43.9% 51.1% 47.9%
Education
No College 62% 58% 40% 63% 55% 44%
College Grad 38% 47% 51% 37% 44% 55%
Total 53.8% 44.2% 50.9% 48.1%
Education
No H.S. 5% N/A N/A 5% N/A N/A
H.S. Grad 25% 65% 33% 25% 63% 36%
College 32% 52% 47% 33% 49% 51%
College Grad 22% 50% 50% 22% 45% 55%
Post Grad 16% 42% 53% 15% 42% 56%
Total 50.6% 42.8% 48.1% 46.3%
Region
Cuyahoga 17% 47% 52% 15% 41% 59%
Northeast 30% 61% 37% 35% 61% 39%
Central 22% 55% 42% 21% 48% 51%
Northwest 10% 54% 43% 11% 44% 55%
Southwest 21% 49% 51% 18% 49% 51%
Total 54.1% 44.2% 51.2% 48.4%
Income
Under 100k 81% 54% 44% 82% 51% 48%
100k + 19% 50% 50% 18% 46% 54%
Total 53.2% 45.1% 50.1% 49.1%
Under 50k 44% 56% 42% 44% 53% 46%
$50k + 56% 52% 47% 56% 49% 51%
Total 53.8% 44.8% 50.8% 48.8%
Income
0- 15k 8% 50% 49% 8% 47% 52%
15-30k 15% 60% 36% 15% 58% 41%
30-50k 21% 55% 43% 21% 51% 48%
50-75k 23% 55% 45% 23% 51% 49%
75-100k 15% 50% 47% 15% 49% 50%
100-150k 11% 55% 45% 11% 51% 49%
150-200k 4% N/A N/A 3% N/A N/A
200k + 4% N/A N/A 4% N/A N/A
Total 50.8% 40.7% 48% 45%
Party ID
Democrat 69% 56% 42% 69% 53% 46%
Republican 9% 49% 49% 9% 45% 55%
Independent 22% 48% 50% 22% 46% 54%
Total. 53.6% 44.4% 50.7% 48.6%
Ideology
Liberal 40% 53% 46% 41% 49% 50%
Moderate 46% 56% 42% 46% 53% 46%
Conservative 14% 48% 48% 13% 46% 53%
Total 53.7% 44.4% 50.5% 48.6%
Final Exit Poll 9pm Exit poll
Mix Clinton Obama Mix Clinton Obama
Race
White 76% 64% 34% 75% 61% 38%
African-Amer 18% 13% 87% 19% 11% 89%
Latino 4% N/A N/A 4% N/A N/A
Asian 1% N/A N/A 1% N/A N/A
Other 1% N/A N/A 1% N/A N/A
Total 51.0% 41.5% 47.8% 45.4%
Religion
Protestant 56% 55% 43% 56% 52% 48%
Catholic 23% 63% 36% 22% 59% 40%
Jewish 2% N/A N/A 2% N/A N/A
Other 7% N/A N/A 7% N/A N/A
None 13% 45% 52% 13% 43% 55%
Total 51.1% 39.1% 47.7% 42.8%
Sex and Race
White Men 32% 58% 39% 32% 55% 44%
White Women 44% 67% 31% 44% 66% 34%
Black Men 7% 15% 85% 7% 13% 87%
Black Women 11% 12% 88% 11% 9% 91%
Latino Men 1% N/A N/A 1% N/A N/A
Latino Wom 2% N/A N/A 2% N/A N/A
All Other 2% N/A N/A 2% N/A N/A
Total 50.4% 41.8% 48.5% 45.1%
Size of Community
Urban 26% 44% 55% 27% 39% 60%
Suburban 63% 56% 42% 64% 54% 46%
Rural 10% 70% 26% 10% 67% 32%
Total 53.7% 43.4% 51.8% 48.8%
When Did You Decide Your Vote?
Today 12% 54% 43% 11% 52% 46%
Last3 Days 9% 63% 37% 10% 59% 41%
Last Week 9% 54% 43% 9% 51% 48%
Last Month 23% 46% 54% 24% 42% 58%
Before 46% 57% 41% 46% 54% 45%
Total 53.8% 43.6% 51.1% 48.1%
Which Candidate Attacked Unfairly?
HRC 24% 8% 91% 26% 7% 93%
Obama 8% 92% 8% 8% 91% 9%
Both 29% 68% 29% 28% 66% 33%
None 35% 67% 32% 34% 65% 34%
Total 52.5% 42.1% 49.7% 45.7%
Final Exit Poll 9pm Exit poll
Mix Clinton Obama Mix Clinton Obama
Age
17-29 16% 35% 61% 16% 32% 67%
30-44 28% 50% 50% 28% 46% 54%
45-59 33% 57% 42% 34% 54% 45%
60+ 23% 69% 28% 23% 67% 31%
Total 54.3% 44.1% 51.8% 48.3%
Age
17-24 7% 29% 70% 7% 24% 75%
25-29 8% 41% 54% 8% 38% 60%
30-39 17% 49% 51% 17% 45% 55%
40-49 21% 52% 48% 22% 48% 52%
50-64 32% 60% 37% 32% 58% 40%
65+ 14% 72% 26% 13% 70% 29%
Total 53.8% 43.5% 50.6% 47.4%
Were Debates Important to Your Vote?
Yes 73% 52% 47% 74% 49% 51%
No 18% 55% 38% 18% 54% 43%
Total 47.9% 41.2% 46.0% 45.5%
More Qualified to be Commander in Chief?
HRC 60% 87% 11% 57% 86% 13%
Obama 37% 3% 97% 40% 3% 97%
Total 53.3% 42.5% 50.2% 46.2%
Was Gender of Candidate Important to You?
Yes 17% 60% 40% 17% 57% 43%
No 82% 53% 45% 82% 50% 49%
Total 53.7% 43.7% 50.7% 47.5%
Most Important Issue
Economy 59% 55% 43% 58% 52% 47%
Iraq 19% 49% 50% 19% 47% 53%
Health Care 19% 56% 42% 19% 52% 47%
Total 52.4% 42.9% 49.0% 46.3%
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