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I find it amazing how rapidly myths form, especially the vaunted 20% Texas Gap. [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-11-08 02:19 PM
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I find it amazing how rapidly myths form, especially the vaunted 20% Texas Gap.
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Edited on Tue Mar-11-08 02:20 PM by Zynx
For example, there is a myth that Barack Obama was 20 points down two weeks prior to Texas: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/tx/texas_democratic_primary-312.html#polls

There was ONE poll that had Hillary up by 16. The rest were between 8 and even being down. The median poll lead seems to have been around 5 points. She won the primary, I'm not talking about delegate allocation because polls can't account for that so don't even start, by 3-4%. Hardly shocking.

Now, it is true that in Ohio the gap did narrow noticably from three weeks out: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_democratic_primary-263.html#polls where Obama was behind twenty. However, he narrowed it to 6-8 points before it widened to an election loss of slightly over 10%. A decisive loss.
The trend was not his friend at the end.

Before spouting myths as fact, look into them slightly.
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