Reply #110: A very friendly amendment

[Tom Rinaldo]

No I was not simply implying that Clark immediately backed Kerry upon withdrawal because Kerry was the inevitable winner. I believe Clark strongly believes that Kerry is the best of the possible Democratic nominees other than himself.

Interesting point whether Clark thought Kerry was inevitable at the point when Clark withdrew. I have no inside knowledge about that, other than reading the comments Clark made about the handwriting on the wall after Iowa. Your comments regarding "process of estimating risk vs. resources" are right on the money. I think Clark still had a small but real chance of winning had he been able to pull off a win in TN, and just maybe even had he come in second rather than a reasonably strong third there.

Clark had been swimming upstream against lack of free media coverage since shortly prior to Iowa. Edwards was the media favorite, after his strong Iowa showing, to become Kerry's primary primary challenger, and the media moved quickly at that point toward covering the primaries as a two man Kerry/Edwards horse race with a side human interest story regarding "the collapse of Dean". Only by refuting those perceptions through facts on the ground could Clark upset that entrenched media coverage dynamic, but without free media coverage, Clark had little chance to do that after the campaign left the retail politics states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Winning Oklahoma gave Clark a tiny window of opportunity but did little to change overall coverage of the race. Clark had to repeat in TN in order to force more serious media coverage of his campaign, or at the very least he had to defeat Edwards there. Failing to do either closed his last window.

The reason why I suggested that Clark thought Kerry was inevitable at that point has to do with the fact that Kerry kept gaining momentum AND that Kerry was a candidate credible in areas of National Security. That gave Kerry victories in Iowa and New Hampshire to begin with. Once Clark withdrew, Kerry had no other competitor with obvious strength in that area, and I think Clark perceived that the Democratic electorate was seeing the race much as he did, our candidate needed that credibility in order to successfully take on Bush this year. That meant Kerry.

Having said that, a good tactician does not relax when victory seems assured prior to it actually being secured. Strange things happen in "the fog of war" so to speak, unexpected turns of events can be expected. By backing Kerry strongly when Clark did, he helped move forward the process by which the party united behind Kerry, a good thing assuming he was going to become our standard bearer. And indeed Clark further helped ensure that Kerry became our standard bearer. I think what was more in doubt at the point that Clark withdrew was not whether Kerry would win the nomination, but how convincingly he would win it. Edwards did just fine by remaining in the race though he was unable to beat Kerry in any of the contested contests. Edwards gained invaluable exposure and recognition. But Kerry gained the aura of a winner by convincingly reeling off a string of victories, including the deep South State of Georgia, with Clark's help as you point out.

One minor point that I "differ" with you on as expressed (though I bet we actually agree) is in regards to Howard Dean. Yes Clark believed that Dean suffered from the same lack of International experience as George W. Bush did, and Clark believes that is a serious liability in the current world, absolutely. I have no doubt though, based on things I heard Clark say, that he thought Dean had far better instincts and a superior basic foreign policy orientation than the chicken-hawks in the Bush Administration. Clark's basic point was that if the President himself does not have a strong core set of experiences to draw on, he is in a poor position to cut through policy differences expressed by dueling "experts" at the Cabinet level. That role fell to Chaney in the Bush Administration, and Clark thought it inadvisable to repeat that problem.