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Edited on Fri Jun-27-08 10:09 AM by EarlG
Ah, it only seems like a few months since MSNBC was digging so deeply into polls that we knew exactly which way white male one-legged Ford Focus-driving beret-wearers were going to vote in the Democratic primaries. During the primaries you couldn't move for being smacked in the face with a poll - they were SO IMPORTANT. How can Obama win the general election if he can't win the white working class voters of West Virginia? How can Hillary win without the African American vote in South Carolina?
Today, MSNBC has been reporting on the multiple new polls which show Obama leading John McCain in pretty much all the battleground states, by margins ranging from a few points to double digits. How have they been reporting on these polls? Trouble for McCain? Obama opens up a lead?
Don't be silly. They've been running this hourly so far as a "Can you trust the polls?" story. Monica Novotny had Charlie Cook - a pollster - on this morning to explain how the polls are all junk and can't be trusted. Alex Witt just did the same story, noting that while some polls have Obama miles in the lead, others - such as Gallup - have the race as a dead heat. To analyze the story she interviewed someone from... Gallup. Gee, I wonder which poll he thinks is correct?
So far I have not heard anybody say "Er, could these trends be a serious problem for McCain?" Instead the entire focus has been, "Can you really trust the polls? It could be a lot closer than you think!"
Of course, whether we can trust the polls or not is really a moot point. The point is the way they're reporting on the story. When the race is tight, polls are all important. When Obama leads, suddenly the polls are suspiciously inaccurate.
I suspect the worst is yet to come though. They'll be content to ignore these good numbers for Obama - unless the polls show the race tightening again. If that happens, you can bet your ass that Obama's current high poll numbers - which they're dismissing as "unbelievable" at the moment - will suddenly become very real and verifiable. "Obama was up by double digits last month, but now he's running even with McCain! Trouble for Obama?!?"
Bah.
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