Which school of thought do you subscribe to?

[Guaranteed]

I have a couple of thoughts on this pretty big fight we've got going with the Bush administration here right now. Bear with me, this may be difficult for me to explain.

I'm seeing two different schools of thought when it comes to what constitutes being in the "winning" position in an election (polls aside, mind you) here on DU. Put another way, what the conditions must be for Kerry to be able to say "I am winning this election right now."

The first school of thought I'm seeing (and the people who subscribe to it tend to be the people who, it seems to me, are still worried about Kerry getting beat up by these Smearvet fucks, as if the hits he's taking are going to make him lose) pushes the idea that every hit Kerry takes is lost votes. As a meme spreads more and more, a larger percentage of people believe it, which chips away at Kerry's character and thus less people support him/vote for him. This is the classic "peeling away votes" theory.

The second school of thought, which I think I'm just really starting to learn something about, here, in seeing what Kerry is doing, is pretty different. What I'm seeing happening here is the two candidates have found a battleground, and they've both decided to duke it out. Other fights have probably been offered, but they've for the most part been declined by one side or another (again, it's like a game of Texas Hold'Em, an analogy I've used before). Both candidates know what their strengths are, and they want to fight on their "home turf," using these strengths. And when they DO fight, if they are fighting in their strongest area, they want to make the fight as large and extended as possible, so that everyone sees it and understands the stakes each candidate has been willing to place on the fight. They want to make a huge event out of it- especially when they know they're going to win.

Now, in fights of this caliber, both candidates are going to get hit. They've decided that they're finally going to duke it out, and they're not going to be holding back anything except in the tactical sense. That is, you might hold back and let the other guy swing and miss, so you can come around with your overhand right to his jaw while he's off balance. But they're both going to get bloody. That's just how real fights are when the fighters are of even similar skill-level. The difference, though, is that even through all the blood, people watching a fight typically have a nearly unanimous opinion on who won. There's not always something that you can point to as the "winning shot," but something in your gut just tells ya.

And while each candidate/fighter has their die-hard supporters who will be with him win or lose, those people in the middle who don't have an attachment to either candidate are going to go with the winner. Meanwhile, the die-hard supporters will point out the individual hits and cheer on their candidate in an attempt to give the impression that their guy is winning, trying to pull the undecideds over to their side. Further, anyone who points to one or two particular hits as the ones that "won them over" already had their mind made up before the fight even began. But all of these attempts by the partisans do not affect the outcome. The undecideds truly use their own eyes, and form their own opinions about who won the fight- and that is who they go with, no matter what the fight was over.

The Bush administration made a very, very serious mistake in trying to take on Kerry in this arena, the arena of Kerry's war record. I honestly don't even know what they were thinking. But he suckered them right in. He KNEW that there was NO WAY they could beat him on this issue, so he let them come. He played weak and they went in for the kill. Then, suddenly, they realized the trap that they had fallen for. They'd been ambushed.

The Bush administration is fucked, here. This is the third Vietnam War HERO (not just vets- HEROES) they've smeared, or attempted to smear, in four years. They've realized their mistake, but they can't back out and condemn the Smearvet ads without looking like little bitches (sorry NSMA). However, they can't keep hitting him, either- because every time they do, Kerry just comes up with another person who was THERE on the boat WITH HIM at the TIME who tells the EXACT SAME STORY that all of his other Swift Boat buddies are telling! Kerry's just getting to tell his courageous story OVER AND OVER...and OVER. And they continue to show his Rambo footage where he's walking with his M-16 (I believe) and his helmet, looking like a badass soldier. And there now seems to be an endless line of people who are willing to go on TV and praise Kerry as a war hero.

In the run-up to the RNC Convention, no less.

I mean, if this continues, how could Bush POSSIBLY win? This is exactly what Kerry wants, and he didn't even have to act like an asshole to get it.

Kerry's going to win this fight, rather easily, at this point, and it's going to readily apparent to everyone in only a matter of days, probably. I don't think this election's even going to be close anymore. Almost all of the truly undecided voters are going to go to Kerry.
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Well- that was an odd rant on my part. I hope it made sense. I know I didn't make myself very clear in a lot of parts. :)

(Just as a sidenote, I don't think that most elections have dynamics like this- I think it's the nature of an extremely polarized electorate that makes the undecideds spring for the "winner" of the fight- the "vote peeling" theory probably applies in more typical elections)