Reply #16: Actually most of the polls are outside their listed margin of error

[Quixote1818]

You might want to look a little closer. Those that had Bush winning by three points were off by four points and most of them had margin of errors of +/-2.5 or 3 points. Those that had Gore winning by two were only off by one point and so they were inside their margin of error. Lets take a look:

This one missed it's margin of error by 1 point.

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Presidential Preference (Nov. 5-6)
Margin of error +/- 2%
Bush 47%
Gore 45%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 4%

This one hit inside the margin of error.

Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Daily Tracking (Final Results)
Margin of error +/- 3%

Bush 46%
Gore 48%
Buchanan 0.5%
Nader 5%
Browne 0.6%
Phillips 0%
McReynolds 0%
Hagelin 0%

This one by ABC was off by four points and it's margin of error was 2.5%.

ABC News Tracking (Nov. 3-5)
Margin of error +/- 2.5%

Bush 48%
Gore 45%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 3%

This one was off by six points and had a margin of error of 3.1% so it missed it's mark by almost two points to be correct.

Battleground 2000 Daily (Final Results)
Margin of error +/- 3.1%

Bush 50%
Gore 45%
Buchanan --
Nader 3.5%

This one missed by ten points and had a margin of error of only 1.6%. In other words all they did was poll the Bush household.


Portrait of America Tracking (Nov. 4-6)
Margin of error +/- 1.6%

Bush 49%
Gore 40%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 4%
Browne 1%
Phillips <1%
Hagelin<1%

This Newsweek poll hit inside the margin of error.


Newsweek – likely voters (Oct. 31-Nov. 2)
Margin of error +/- 4%

Bush 45%
Gore 43%

This Newsweek poll was inside the margin of error.

Newsweek – all registered voters (Oct. 31-Nov. 2)
Margin of error +/- 4%

Bush 41%
Gore 44%
Buchanan 0%
Nader 5%

This CBS poll nailed it!

CBS News (Nov. 4-6)
Margin of error +/- 3%

Bush 44%
Gore 45%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 4%

This Fox poll did very well and infact it was more acurate than the Newsweek and Zogby poll.

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics (Nov. 1-2)
Margin of error +/- 3%

Bush 43%
Gore 43%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 3%

This Washington Post poll was off by 4 points and had a margine of error of three points. It missed it's margin of error.

Washington Post Tracking (Nov. 2-5)
Margin of error +/- 3%

Bush 48%
Gore 45%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 3%