Iowa and New Hampshire: winners since 1972 (with a morsel of history)

[Maddy McCall]

Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary: Historic Results Since '72


Iowa caucuses did not become important until 1968, when the nation was torn apart by the Viet Nam War and because
this would be the first election after Civil Rights Acts 1964/65--both of these events were divisive in the Democratic
Party so to remedy this, caucuses became more inclusive; they became more open and thus more relevant. Locations
were announced weeks in advance and were better publicized so that a greater number of Iowans could participate.

The 1972 caucus was the first "big" Iowa caucus. (Thus, I will begin looking at 1972 results.) South Dakota Senator
George McGovern's campaign manager Gary Hart exploited the caucus to garner media attention for his boss, so he
campaigned heavily in Iowa. McGovern didn't win the caucus, finishing a suprisingly close second to Edmund Muskie.
However, McGovern DID go on to win the Democratic nomination.

The New Hampshire primary, the first in the nation each election year, historically has elected the party nominee--
well, at least until Tsongas bested Clinton in 1992. Until then, for 50 years New Hampshire picked party nominees;
that's why New Hampshire primaries are so important to contenders and watchers.

So who won in Iowa, New Hampshire, and then who went on to capture the Democratic Party nomination? Let's look:

1972:
Iowa: Muskie
New Hampshire: Muskie
Democratic presidential nomination: McGovern
General: Nixon

1976:
Iowa: Carter
New Hampshire: Carter
Democratic presidential nomination: Carter
General: Carter

1980:
Iowa: Incumbent President Carter (challenged by Ted Kennedy)
New Hampshire: Carter
Democratic presidential nomination: Carter
General: Reagan

1984:
Iowa: Mondale (Where's the Beef? LOL!)
New Hampshire: Hart
Democratic Presidential nomination: Mondale
General: Reagan

1988:
Iowa: Gephardt (Simon 2nd, Dukakis 3rd; Monkey Business)
New Hampshire: Dukakis
Democratic Presidential nomination: Dukakis
General: Bush I

1992:
Iowa: Iowa Sen. Harkin (other candidates bypass Iowa caucus, focus on NH)
New Hampshire: Tsongas (First time NH winner did not get nomination; Clinton 2nd)
Democratic Presidential nomination: Clinton ("who?" they asked :-) )
General: Clinton (that's who :-) )

1996: Iowa: Incumbent President Clinton (unopposed Dem. candidate)
New Hampshire: Clinton
Democratic Presidential nomination: Clinton
General: Clinton

2000: Iowa: Gore
New Hampshire: Gore
Democratic Presidential nomination: Gore
General: Gore (but Bush selected)

2004: It's anybody's game.


It is necessary to pay attention to the circumstances of each caucus and primary if we want to look
to history as a guide. Iowa is not irrelevant; New Hampshire is VERY relevant. If we are going to say things
like, "Iowa isn't important, only two times has the winner won in the general," I think we need to look at
which winners went on to win the nomination also. Carter, Mondale, Clinton, and Gore. (No one could have bested
Harkin in 1992--no one tried). New Hampshire's record is even better at picking winners.

Feel free to contribute comments and recollections about these historic results,
as well as speculations as to whether you think 2004 will resemble previous years. :-)

Edited: atrocious grammar