Reply #9: Calculated risks are calculated risks, but sometimes they are necessary.

[mikehiggins]

Who expected Kerry to rally so well at this late stage in the game?

Clark apparently figured he could use the period when all the others were tied up with Iowa to make strong inroads into NH. That part of the strategy seems to have succeeded. What will happen if Kerry rolls into the state after winning, or coming in second in Iowa? Anyone's guess.

One thing to keep in mind, however, is that the "winner" of that contest might not be known for several days, particularly if the race is as close as it now appears. Moreover, the value of "winning" Iowa by 1% or so casts a pall on the whole process. If the difference between the "winner" and the 4th place is within five or six points then actually nothing will have changed from the situation this week.

New Hampshire will then become the first state in which a really clear winner might be found, and the Iowa quartet will have to continue their struggle against each other, as well as trying to roll over Clark's position.

Originally it was thought that Gephardt or Dean would be slugging it out at the end, and that Dean might be the winner, gaining momentum for the New Hampshire campaign. This might still be the case, but the question of momentum is now an open issue. If you barely beat three other candidates, just how much momentum can you claim.

Clark's strategy may yet play out to his advantage, in a way that was unanticipated when the plan was first devised. As a general, I'm sure he would appreciate that.