Reply #6: Now and later

[PATRICK]

The GOP won't be fooled twice. The situation will be gamed against the Dems. Bloomberg is not idealist, individualist or pro-democracy champion. They owned the Buchanan factor. they will run with this one as a necessary complement to a sure defeat- even with bold cheating- in 2008. the Dems can unfortunately be predicted to look upon this with the old wisdom and these reassuring poll numbers and welcome yet another Trojan horse into the city.

the threat to Clinton- that backfired- was that Perot eclipsed the Dems and was a media distraction made to order for them. unfortunately he eclipsed Bush as well and the destruction of Perot by Bush savaged away the possible advantages and made Bush look worse. Bill then arose calmly out of the ashes. As to whose constituency was robbed more there is debate on that- and that fact should scare you because doubt of an effect (already on record!) means it can be interpreted and played either way- more grounds for election trickery way beyond the support calculations that never arrive.

WHY is he really running. Bloomberg. Now. Is this a NY establishment plot to overthrow the Bushes? More likely it is primarily a big favor for the GOP and if Hillary is the nominee the attempt will be made to spotlight difficulties and unpredicted expenses in NYC into a campaign weakening factor- just for starters. if this is a prime calculation you will see Bloomberg enter the fray as soon as it becomes apparent that Hillary is inevitable and by degrees according to that process. If it is part and partnership with a Guiliani candidacy(or selling point, because how can Guiliani alone carry his own state???) maybe it is more complicated for the Bush dynasty.