Reply #79: Temper that assumption with how Howard Dean was polling

[Turn CO Blue]

for the 2004 election. Dean was winning in most polls in December 2003 by a landslide. And...you saw how that turned out. Kerry had a massive "come from behind" moment in the early primaries in January. EXCEPT Kerry didn't "come from behind". Kerry was apparently ALREADY way ahead (he had to be since he won), but none of the pollsters knew it until mid-January or in some cases, until Kerry had WON! Why not? Why didn't these "professionals" have it right?

I suspect faulty data collection and skewed selection criteria. The pollsters just are not very good anymore. I don't believe that it's due to a "conspiracy"; I believe it's because they are BAD at their trade and still get paid regardless (kind of like the weatherman).

Again, polls and people being polled are very, very SOFT at this stage and mean absolutely NOTHING -- just ask Howard Dean.

FLASHBACK TO 2003:
<http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/12/09/elec04.prez.gore.dean/>

Poll: Dean's New Hampshire lead increases
Thursday, December 4, 2003 Posted: 1:43 PM EST (1843 GMT)

SPECIAL REPORT

(CNN) -- Howard Dean has increased his already sizable lead in New Hampshire, according to a poll released Thursday.

The survey by American Research Group found that Dean had 45 percent of the potential vote among respondents, far ahead of second-place John Kerry, whose support was at 13 percent.

Dean's support was 7 percentage points higher than a poll released November 20.

Kerry has dropped 4 percentage points since that poll.

And again (notice John Kerry with only 4%):
<http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/12/17/opinion/polls/main589167.shtml>

Special Report
CBS NEWS POLLS

Poll: Dean Pulls Away In Dem Race
Ex-Vermont Gov. Leads Clark And Lieberman By 13 Points


NEW YORK, Dec. 17, 2003
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Howard Dean has the backing of 23 percent of likely primary voters, the same as he did in the days just prior to Saddam's capture. (AP)


(CBS) Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean has pulled away from the field in the Democratic Presidential nomination race: his support among Democratic primary voters nationwide has risen in the past month, and held steady after the news of Saddam Hussein's capture.

CHOICE FOR DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE
(Democratic primary voters)
Now
Howard Dean
23%
Wesley Clark
10%
Joe Lieberman
10%
Richard Gephardt
6%
Al Sharpton
5%
John Kerry
4%
John Edwards
2%
Carol Moseley-Braun
1%
Dennis Kucinich
1%
Don’t Know
28%