Reply #9: You are quite right that Democratic primaries are an imperfect predictor of GE performance

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

(A massive understatement!)

But the electoral grind of the Democratic primaries is, at this point, probably the best predictor of GE performance we've got. The Democratic party, and cross-over independents where applicable, offer a decent test of things like likability and race prejudice... not as good as the general election, but better than punditry.

Since the Democratic party has never nominated a woman or a black person before, there is resistance to overcome that mirrors, in some way, the national tone. Independents are probably not much more sexist or racist than Dems. (One could argue that white independents are more open to a black candidacy than white Dems. Not saying it's true, but at least one could hold up Iowa and NH as evidence. Of course, the same evidence would suggest that independents are more sexist, which may well be true also... I think more men are indys.)

After just two contests we have already learned that white people will support a black national candidate in some circumstances, and also that aggrieved women are, in the privacy of a voting booth, a more potent force than we thought.

And Dems will win the GE if Dem turnout is good enough (we are the majority party, after all), so primary turnout trends say something real about the GE.

And crafting effective strategy and implementing it with discipline is the same skill in the primaries as in the GE. It's just that the strategies are different.