Reply #23: DEBUNKED: Puerto Rico is NOT Winner-Take-All

[Torgo Johnson]

"Both Brooks and Barone are wrong. Puerto Ricans will vote according to much the same proportional representation rules that govern Democratic party primaries and caucuses in the 50 states. The notion of Puerto Rico being a "winner-take-all" jurisdiction stems from previous presidential primary contests, which were pretty much over by the time the Puerto Ricans got to vote. John Kerry swept Puerto Rico in 2004 just as Al Gore triumphed in 2000 because they were the only candidates left in the race, and the party bosses could manipulate the caucus process.

This time will be very different, according to several Puerto Rican Democratic leaders I contacted earlier today by phone. At present, Puerto Rico is scheduled to hold a caucus--not a primary--on June 7. If the race is still competitive, participation is likely to be very high, and there is no way that one candidate will sweep all the delegates.

"Both the candidates have supporters on the island," said Eliseo Roques, vice-chair of the Democratic National Committee's Hispanic Caucus, and a prominent Puerto Rican politician who is neutral in the race. "You will see a closely contested race."

Both Brooks and Barone backed off the "winner takes all" talk when I caught up with them today. Barone said he had based his analysis on past elections, when Puerto Ricans traditionally plumped for one candidate. Brooks said he got his information from Barone."

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/fact-checker/2008/02/will_puerto_rico_decide_everyt.html

Here is acutal delegate allocation for Puerto Rico.

The Puerto Rico Senatorial District Caucuses convene. The caucuses choose Puerto Rico's 55 Pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at either the senatorial district or islandwide level.

36 district delegates are proportionally allocated by senatorial district (Puerto Rico has no congressional districts).

* District 1 San Juan: 4
* District 2 Bayamón: 5
* District 3 Arecibo: 4
* District 4 Mayagüez: 4
* District 5 Ponce: 4
* District 6 Guayama: 4
* District 7 Humacao: 4
* District 8 Carolina: 4

In addition, 12 at-large and 7 Pledged PLEOs are proportionally allocated by the islandwide vote.

* 12 at-large National Convention delegates
* 7 Pledged PLEOs

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/PR-D.phtml#0607

Translation, in order for Clinton to take all of the delegates, Obama would not only have to fail to reach 15% islandwide, but also fail to reach 15% in each of the 8 Senatorial districts. In short, it ain't gonna happen.