Reply #11: This will not be a sea change

[Secret_Society]

Sorry in advance. This is a rant, I haven't had access to a comp for a couple days and just some stuff I wanted to say on this electability topic

I do not support Obama. Of course, I will vote for the Democratic nominee. I don't think I could handle pulling the lever for a Republican. I envision an Obama win, but a squeaker. Take the Gore map from 2000 and add Colorado. That make it 269-269. I think Obama can take Nevada also to put him over the top. This will not be a landslide, however. I truly believe that Florida is not in play for Obama. He should not spend money there when it be spent on organizing in Oregon, Nevada, and New Mexico. In addition, I have for numerous elections heard the refrain either that young voters aren't being polled (e.g. cellphones) or that the Dems will pull it out with a huge voter registration and GOTV drive. Neither of these ever seems to materialize much to my chagrin. If only that actually happened Kerry would have taken Ohio. Also, while those 3 new seats are great since those members will caucus with the Democrats, those were Conservative Democrats. While those wins do illustrate discontent with Republicans, I fear that those victories will be extrapolated to the extreme. My GREAT fear is losing California. I know that sounds ridiculous, but the two latest polls show Obama up by 7. Looking at California, it is clear that they aren't adverse to electing moderate Republicans. An no matter what is the reality about McCain, people perceive him as a moderate.