Reply #21: I'm sorry you tried to pick this argument

[Lobo_13]

because you've got nothing.

Follow the bouncing ball.

The most optimistic estimate is that the Dem 527's will have parity with the GOP 527's. The reality is that the GOP 527's will have more resources as they have huge contribution potential. But using the most optimistic estimate, the 527 factor will be a push. Neither side will have an advantage.

Bush will have 200 mil to run his own campaign. He could split that down the middle between ads and GOTV, and he'd still outspend Clark by 20 times (if you start the clock when Clark wraps up the nom).

This puts Clark at a disadvantage because he'll be fighting a two front war with limited resources. He'll have to defend against 527 attacks, and he'll have to be able to present himself as a viable alternative to Bush. Barring fairies, elves, and angels coming down and whispering in everyone's ears, that takes money.

Bush, on the other hand will have all the money he needs to fend off attacks AND put his smirking face on the tv to let everyone know how good a guy he is. AND he'll be able to fund a tremendous GOTV campaign which is what really wins campaigns.

Since there is no coordination between the campaign and the 527, Clark won't be able to communicate his agenda with anyone. Without that, he's toast.

Dean will be able to reach parity with Bush and be able to fund his own GOTV efforts AND keep himself in front of everyone to present an alternative to Bush.

You can call it a shell game all you want, but it doesn't make the predicament any less real.