Reply #15: Bush gained % in every county

[madrigal]

I've been comparing 2000 vs 2004 election results and Bush has gained in % of the vote in every single county in NJ, usually by 6% or more, while Kerry stayed even or lost % of 2000 Dem votes/total vote.

I just don't understand - there were 238,881 more votes cast this time, and Bush gained 308,381 from last election, so that's saying he got all the new voters + nader/other votes from last time or dems switching over??? Kerry gained 15,113 votes from last time, so new voter turnout had almost no effect and/or he gained none of Nader's 2000 votes?????


So did Bush pick up all the new voters and Nader/other 2000 voters? Did the McGreevey thing really backlash that much against Kerry? New voter turnout seems to have not helped Kerry at all. Any thoughts here on where those votes came from?

Interestingly, the % of registered voters who actually voted stayed about the same.


These numbers are based in the "unofficial" votes from NJ state website (not counting absentee for 2004). I have a big ugly spreadsheet of the breakout by county if anyone wants to look at the numbers.

Number of votes cast:
Total 2004 votes: 3,426,107
Total 2000 votes: 3,187,226
Difference is + 238,881

2000 registered voters: 4,699,026
2000 votes cast: 3,187,226
% of 2000 registered voters who cast votes: 67.82%

2004 registered voters: 5,005,959
2004 votes cast (no absentee): 3,426,107
% of 2004 voters who cast votes: 68.44%


Bush 2004: 1,592,554 = 46.70% of total vote
Bush 2000: 1,284,173 = 39.07% of total vote
Difference is +308,381 = 7.63% gain

Kerry 2004: 1,803,963 = 52.65%
Gore 2000: 1,788,850 = 56.13%
Difference is +15,113 = 3.47% loss

I'm interested in what other people think or if anyone else is interested in crunching the numbers - maybe I'm doing something wrong here. I keep looking at the numbers, and maybe I'm just too tired.

Anyway, any thoughts?