...from "the experts" in my life, and I do read a lot of their garbage (I'm an environmental activist and paralegal).
1) Mitofsky has yet to release his raw data. He can say anything he wants about it, but if it cannot be peer reviewed in its original form and reviewed by the public, so what? He is in the pay of the networks, who have screwed over the public on every issue from 9/11 to the war in Iraq to this second stolen election. And he has every reason to lie now--and put out an absurd report on why his exit poll was "wrong"--to save his ass with the BushCons and their lapdog press.
2) The BushCon lapdog press has NOT reported on the various independent expert analyses of the exit poll discrepancy, and have hardly mentioned the matter at all, until now--now that the debunking has begun--despite major papers on this matter from leading statisticians throughout the country. (See below.)
3) The TV lapdog networks not only have NOT reported on this matter--on Election Night, they and Mitofsky ALTERED the Exit Polls, "adjusting" them to fit the "official results," so that Americans were DENIED THE INFORMATION OF A CONFLICTING RESULT--exit polls (Kerry won) vs. "official results" (Bush won). That's WHY we didn't have a Ukraine here. The Ukrainians could see the conflicting results and knew something was wrong.
4) The TV BushCon lapdog press are almost all WAR PROFITEERS!
5) Everyone involved--the lapdog TV networks, Mitofsky, AP (who handled the "official results"), the newspapers, the radio conglomerates, and the political parties all KNEW DAMN WELL that the US was testing out a new and highly controversial electronic voting system nationwide for the first time, with, among other things, the source code that counts all our votes held as SECRET proprietary information by BushCon voting machine companies (major Bush donors), and that the computers had been proven to be extremely insecure, unreliable and hackable. The situation CRIED OUT for an Exit Poll designed specifically to verify the election and check for fraud (as they do elsewhere in the world). Instead they did a voter choice/demographic exit poll which MUDDIED THE WATERS and gave BushCons an easy "talking point" to try to debunk the result that Kerry won, the easy "talking point" being that the poll was demographic--an absurd criticism! --there is no reason a poll can't be both demographic AND predictive.
5) And now this...
http://www.cnn.com/2005/ALLPOLITICS/01/19/exit.polls/index.html"Why Kerry ‘won’ the exit polls
"The main impetus for the report was the perception that the NEP exit polls were flawed because they consistently found more support for Kerry than was reflected in the final voting tallies.
"Not true, said the report, which found that no 'systematic problem in how the exit poll data were collected and processed' explained the inaccuracies.
"Instead, the report’s authors said, a variety of anomalies, some of them outside the pollsters’ control, added up to create a nationwide overstatement of Democratic support, especially in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Those factors differed from precinct to precinct, combining in various permutations to create 'a sizeable overstatement of the estimated percentage of the vote for John Kerry.'”
--------
"...Those factors differed from precinct to precinct, combining in various permutations to create 'a sizeable overstatement of the estimated percentage of the vote for John Kerry..."
That is gobble-de-gook. "...combining in various permutations...". Come on!
On the one hand, there is "no systematic problem" in the polls; on the other, "a variety of anomalies SOME OF THEM outside the pollsters' control, ADDED UP TO...."????
And: "...those factors DIFFERED from precinct to precinct COMBINING IN VARIOUS PERMUTATIONS..." ????
Read this article carefully and try to make sense of it. It reminds me of the 'Wizard of Oz" who tries to project himself as a scientific know-it-all and a powerful figure, while fiddling with knobs behind the curtain.
What a disgusting performance!
For a REAL analysis of the Mitofsky data (from screen shots that alert citizens did of the early CNN exit poll results, and the "leaks" that NBC et al are now going to suppress), see:
Dr. Steven Freeman 1st study:
http://www.truthout.org/unexplainedexitpoll.pdf (also at:
http://www.buzzflash.com/alerts/04/11/Expldiscrpv00oPt1... )
Dr. Steven Freeman 2nd study:
http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf/epdiscrep.htm Dr. Ron Baiman:
http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2004/99... Dr. Webb Mealy:
http://www.selftest.net/redshift.htm Jonathan Simon:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00142.htm Also of interest: 130,000 to 230,000 phantom votes for Bush in FLA (paper vs. electronic voting)
Dr. Michael Haut & UC Berkeley stats team:
http://ucdata.berkeley.edu Ohio vote suppression:
http://www.bpac.info Also see TruthIsAll's analysis, here at DU:
"To believe Bush won, you have to believe…"
Part 1
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Part 2
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... Part 3
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... ------------------
One final point about this garbage from Mitofksy:
Re: "The main impetus for the report was the perception that the NEP exit polls were flawed because they consistently found more support for Kerry than was reflected in the final voting tallies."
Dr. Freeman addresses this point in his 2nd paper--the PRESUMPTION by those trying to justify the Bush election that the official results MUST BE RIGHT and the Exit Polls MUST BE WRONG. There is no reason to make this presumption--especially given what we know about who manufactures the voting equipment and owns and controls the secret source code that runs it all. Our election system is NOT NON-PARTISAN, whereas Mitofsky presumably IS. This is WHY they use Exit Polls in other countries to verify elections--because the presumption is just the opposite--that those in power have both access and motive to fiddle elections, and therefore the "official results" are held in suspicion and are VERIFIED by Exit Polls.
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