Gallup: Generic ballot question swings back to Tied at 46%

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

September 7, 2010
Parties Tied at 46% in Generic Ballot

Latest weekly update shows more competitive contest
by Frank Newport

PRINCETON, NJ -- Republicans and Democrats are tied at 46% among registered voters in Gallup's weekly tracking of congressional voting preferences, marking a shift after five consecutive weeks in which the Republicans held the advantage.

These results are based on aggregated data from more than 1,650 registered voters surveyed Aug. 30-Sept. 5 as part of Gallup Daily tracking. The results reflect more competitive voting intentions than has been the case recently. Republicans' leads over Democrats among registered voters in three of the previous four weeks were the highest Gallup has measured for this midterm election campaign, and higher than any GOP advantage Gallup has measured in a midterm election year since 1942.

Last week marked the return of President Barack Obama from his 10-day vacation, and included his national address to announce the official end of combat operations in Iraq. The president's three-day job approval rating rose to 47% for Aug. 29-31 -- a level it had reached only once since mid-July. Last week also brought media commentary in the aftermath of conservative talk-show host Glenn Beck's massive rally in Washington, D.C. It is not clear if these or other factors affected Americans' voting preferences as measured by the generic ballot.

Whether the 2010 race has shifted more permanently to a more competitive positioning will be apparent in the coming weeks. Nevertheless, even the current tie in the generic ballot among registered voters points to a better year for Republicans than for Democrats, given the GOP's usual advantage in voter turnout in midterm elections.



http://www.gallup.com/poll/142892/Parties-Tied-Generic-Ballot.aspx

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When we are tied with Republicans in the national generic ballot question we lose pretty big (largely due to greater concentration in urban Dem districts), but tied is a lot better than 10%, and an impressive one week variation.