Reply #34: Sabato and others are good, no doubt about it

[Gman]

but they make their predictions in different ways than these simulations.

This type of simulation is good for determining a product defect rate, or assessing risk in a system using known variables (e.g. calculating the rate of failure of surgical staples and the resulting monetary damages payout and if it meets an acceptable standard). But shooting random variables into equations with constraints that are fixed right now doesn't imply anything about what those constraints will look like on election day.

I just can't believe the NY Times ran with this.