Obama's Troubles in Virginia

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http://www.thenation.com/blog/164044/obamas-troubles-virginia

Politico is right to say that Virginia will be a tough get for President Obama in 2012. Despite changing demographics and recent Democratic gains, Virginia is still a fairly conservative state—Republicans control the General Assembly and each of the state executive branch seats, as well as the majority of House seats, thanks to the 2010 midterm elections. What’s more, Virginians aren’t too hot on Obama’s performance—according to the most recent pollfrom Quinnipiac University, Virginia voters disapprove of Obama 52 percent to 45 percent. In a head-to-head match-up with Mitt Romney, the front-runner in the Republican race for president, Obama gets 44 percent to Romney’s 45 percent.

Politico traces the beginning of Virginia’s discontent—particularly among independents—to the 2009 statewide elections, when voters swept Democrats out across the state, and ended Democratic control of the governorship by electing Republican Bob McDonnell. Here’s Politico with it’s analysis:

f there was any state to warn Obama that the independent voters who gave him his historic victory were deeply disaffected, it was again Virginia.

Just a year later, in 2009, Republican Governor Robert McDonnell, running against Obama’s record in the White House, won independents by a 2 to 1 majority in a victory that served as a prelude to the massive GOP gains of 2010.

The problem is that Obama’s poor showing with Virginia independents in 2011 isn’t actually connected to McDonnell’s win in 2009, especially given Obama’s high approval rating among Virginians in 2009. In reality, Democratic losses that year had more to do with turnout than it did with any particular disapproval with Obama. That is, the people who elected Bob McDonnell weren’t the same ones who voted for Barack Obama.