Reply #4: Or 190,000 lost, if you believe the household survey.

[girl gone mad]

Judging by other recent reports, the payroll number is probably flawed.

Weekly Unemployment Claims Soar to 474,000

In the week ending April 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 474,000, an increase of 43,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 431,000. The 4-week moving average was 431,250, an increase of 22,250 from the previous week's revised average of 409,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent for the week ending April 23, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.9 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 23 was 3,733,000, an increase of 74,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,659,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,700,750, a decrease of 1,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,702,000.


The April 2011 Non-Manufacturing ISM plunged 4.5 points to 52.8 from 57.3 The drop was below expected range of all 73 economists in a Bloomberg ISM Survey.

The range of economists' forecasts in the Bloomberg survey was 54.5 to 59 with the median forecast up a tick to 57.4.

Tellingly, new orders collapsed by 11.4 points from 64.1 to 52.7. Employment, one of the weaker measures and up only 8 consecutive months fell to 51.9. One more reasonably bad month and services employment will contract.

Economic Growth Slow as Inflation Measure Spikes Up

U.S. economic growth slowed more than expected in the first quarter as higher food and gasoline prices dampened consumer spending, and sent a broad measure of inflation rising at its fastest pace in 2-1/2 years

Growth in U.S. gross domestic product—a measure of all goods and services produced within U.S. borders—braked to a 1.8 percent annual rate after a 3.1 percent fourth quarter pace, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Economists had expected a 2 percent growth pace.

"We hit a bit of a soft patch in the first quarter, but that should prove temporary because weather was a drag and we got blindsided a bit by a jump in gasoline prices late in the quarter," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics before the report was released.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday acknowledged the slowdown in first-quarter growth, describing the recovery as proceeding at a "moderate pace"—a slight step back from a statement in March when it said the economy was on a "firmer footing."

It trimmed its growth estimate for 2011 to between 3.1 and 3.3 percent from a 3.4 to 3.9 percent January projection.