Reply #21: Mission creep was very fast this time

[daleo]

Troops on the ground won't be long. No doubt special forces are on the way, if they aren't there already.

Peak oil theory predicted a scramble to secure oil which would involve military actions.

I think some countries, like Germany and Japan will accelerate their renewables program to avoid being embroiled in these oil wars. Losing big wars breeds some caution. Others will squander blood and treasure to preserve the status quo. Winning big wars breed hubris.

It won't be all or nothing. Countries may hedge their bets, doing a bit of both, but there will be stronger tendencies in one direction or another. Germany will tend in one direction, the U.S. in the other.