Experts Hear Oil Depletion Fear ( Reserves Running Out Much Faster)

[chlamor]

Last Updated: Monday, 25 April, 2005, 13:56 GMT 14:56 UK

Experts hear oil depletion fear

The world's oil reserves are running out much faster than industry and governments are admitting, a conference in Edinburgh has been told.

Experts refer to "peak oil", the time when oil extraction reaches its highest point and then starts to decline.

Many industry experts believe it will not occur until 2030 - but some analysts have stated publicly that it could happen by 2008 or even sooner.

About 200 people from various sectors attended the event.

Dr Jeremy Leggett, a member of the UK government's Renewables Advisory Board, predicted: "Most of us who are worried about this issue would say definitely it will happen some time this decade.

"2008 might be the best guess, plus or minus two years. It's certainly a lot earlier than almost all the world is assuming at the moment.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/4481841.stm

[Deja Q]

1. One word says it all:

Whoops.

[mhr]

2. Surprise, Surprise - What Does It Say When Gomer Pyle Is

Smarter than the rest of humanity!

[rooboy]

3. 2008 plus or minus two years means 2006 could be it. n/t

[cyberpj]

22. The Long Emergency - Rolling Stone article

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/_/id/7203633?pageid=rs.NewsArchive&pa&rnd=1114478757031&has-player=true&version=6.0.12.1040

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

4. All I can say is...

Be very careful. There is a real potential for the big oil companies to use the dissemination of this information for their profitable benefit, too.

Just be careful. Don't discard it, just...well, you know. They are capable of anything.

[IntiRaymi]

11. AGREED!

There was a post, not too long ago, of congresscritters standing up, and harrumphing about Peak Oil.
ANWR Drilling was passed a couple of days later...

[The_Casual_Observer]

5. To get a sense of this, one need only visit Los Angeles/ Orange Co

at rush hour. The amount of fossil fuel consumed on a daily basis in this place alone boggles the imagination. To deny that we have a looming problem with all of this is bury your head deeply in the sand.

[chlamor]

7. That's interesting

For it was during the rush hour in the very place you mentioned where it washed over me "this cannot go on" and oil is Mother Natures trump card. This was years back on a visit to see my brother who lived in LA at the time. fortunately I was heading in the opposite direction of 5 Lanes Full and after one day in that miasma I had to get back to the interior and the big trees. My brother understood and ultimately fled the LA scene also. Our way of living on this earth is breathtakingly insane. Much of that was decided for "us". many bought in. Many are still buying in and looking for a techno-fix.

[grasswire]

9. what's the story on your sig photo?

It's intriguing.

[The_Casual_Observer]

13. Just an everyday flag salute, circa 1929. Cute huh?

[leftchick]

20. not cute at all

why do they look like they are doing this?



very weird.

[The_Casual_Observer]

27. It's the creepiest thing I've seen actually.

It reminded me of a Charles Addams cartoon or something when I saw it the first time.

[Megahurtz]

43. God, no kidding!

And all of the HUGE SUV's and pickup trucks!

Are these people all asleep?:banghead:

[Pacifist Patriot]

6. The expert who predicted the oil peak in the U.S. was only off by...

three years. He's predicting this decade for the world oil peak.

[mhr]

8. Actually M. King Hubert Was Only Off By One Year!

eom

[bpilgrim]

12. M. King Hubbert: October 5th, 1903 -- October 11th, 1989

M. King Hubbert

October 5th, 1903 -- October 11th, 1989
"Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know."
M. King Hubbert

more...
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert

peace

[cyberpj]

23. The Long Emergency - Rolling Stone article

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/_/id/7203633?pageid=rs.NewsArchive&pa&rnd=1114478757031&has-player=true&version=6.0.12.1040

[bpilgrim]

10. governments won't be able to hide this crisis much longer

or will they?

when can we expect our leaders to start bringing this critical issue up? 2006, 2008?

sooner, later?

who gotta clue?

thanks for sharing :toast:

peace

[chlamor]

14. At this point

based on mainstream reports heard this afternoon the spin is headed in the direction of "Yes there is a problem with GASOLINE SUPPLIES AND PRICES and what is needed is an increase in refinery capacity."

There hasn't been a new refinery built since ? a while back the story goes on to say due to big costs and tough environmental regs.

This story was banked off the Bush-Prince Crawford lovefest over and over and....

But no way they are going to say WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF OIL
Wall St. won't allow that.

[4dsc]

15. The Age of Scarcity

http://www.depletion-scotland.org.uk/#conference

Here some good reading for ya!! I firmly believe we are at PEak now and that its all down hill from here.. And even if they pumped more oil, there not enough refineries to process the stuff..

[Mist]

18. I think we're at peak now, too. And our refineries aren't

equipped to handle the cruder stuff we'll have to use.

[chlamor]

19. Thanks and agree

that we are at or past the peak. Not to be a doomsdayer (I laughed in the face of Y2K meltdown) but I think we shall also be amazed at how quickly and costly this depletion THING shall be. As quality deteriorates which is what happens as you get to the bottom of the barrel (Ha Ha) it takes more energy to refine it into fuels.

Also the reserves are overstated by most countries and companies for political and/or financial reasons. Don't want the Gods of the Market to panic.

ASPO site is excellent as it provides country by country analysis.

Food First

[cyberpj]

24. The Long Emergency - Rolling Stone article

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/_/id/7203633?pageid=rs.NewsArchive&pa&rnd=1114478757031&has-player=true&version=6.0.12.1040

[beyurslf]

16. And suddenly 2.30 for a gallon of gas sounds pretty good....

[rodeodance]

17. Governments-have a moral responsibility to prepare their countries

for this loss--like Kerry said -we need to invent our way out of this-not have this 'dig and drill" mentality.

[Conservativesux]

31. Sure they do, but dont expect * to say anything about on his watch.

That isnt going to happen.

[cyberpj]

21. The Long Emergency - Rolling Stone article

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/_/id/7203633?pageid=rs.NewsArchive&pa&rnd=1114478757031&has-player=true&version=6.0.12.1040

[Delphinus]

25. I want to keep this bumped

We all need to know and see this.

[tokenlib]

26. When will the panic set in?

When the uninformed millions of Americans are confronted with this--just think of the panic... I don't think it is going to be pleasant.

[LiberallyInclined]

34. when we invade venezuela...

people might start to get the drift.

[lovuian]

28. Its all about refinery capacity!!! and America doesn't have any

the government should have anticipated this long ago...

Its going to get ugly!!!

I'm wondering about the quality of Iraq's oil and how much capacity it has and nobody wants to talk about that!!!especially Bush

[NickB79]

30. New refineries won't have any effect anymore

We've passed the point where the bottleneck of petroleum products was simply at the refineries. Now the bottleneck has moved south, to the oil wells themselves.

Why do you think the big oil companies aren't building new refineries? They know that they can't keep gouging us forever; eventually the US economy will collapse, and they lose billions along with all the other corporations. It's in their best interests to supply us with reasonably priced fuel. However, they also realize where that bottleneck now rests. If they built new refineries, by the time they come online there won't be enough oil being imported to keep the refineries running at full production.

You don't plant your garden before a blizzard hits, and you don't build new refineries before the shitstorm of Peak Oil hits either.

[chlamor]

32. "You don't plant your garden before a blizzard hits"

You are wise

:toast:

One Straw Revolution-Masanobu Fukuouka

Four Seasons Gardening-Eliot Coleman

Seed to Seed-Suzanne Answorth

[dethl]

29. Great...

That's around the time I graduate from college.... :(

It's going to be a very very interesting next few decades if not century.

*Sigh*

[LiberallyInclined]

33. an 'Apollo-type' program for developing alternative energy-

had better be a big part of the 2008 party platform.
It should already be underway- but this mis-administration is too beholden to the purveyors of dinosaur-juice.

we can't just throw up our hands and sigh that 'all is lost'- if we don't decide to learn to adapt, the problem will just be that much worse.

[chlamor]

35. Analyst Fears Global Oil Crisis in Three Years (Guardian)

Analyst fears global oil crisis in three years

by John Vidal

One of the world's leading energy analysts yesterday called for an independent assessment of global oil reserves because he believed that Middle Eastern countries may have far less than officially stated and that oil prices could double to more than $100 a barrel within three years, triggering economic collapse.

Matthew Simmons, an adviser to President George Bush and chairman of the Wall Street energy investment company Simmons, said that "peak oil" - when global oil production rises to its highest point before declining irreversibly - was rapidly approaching even as demand was increasing.

"This is a new era," Mr Simmons told a conference of oil industry analysts, government officials and academics in Edinburgh. "There is a big chance that Saudi Arabia actually peaked production in 1981. We have no reliable data. Our data collection system for oil is rubbish. I suspect that if we had, we would find that we are over-producing in most of our major fields and that we should be throttling back. We may have passed that point."

Mr Simmons told the meeting that it was inevitable that the price of oil would soar above $100 as supplies failed to meet demand. "Demand is pulling away from supply...and we have to ask whether we have the resources that we think we do. It could be catastrophic if we do not anticipate when peak oil comes."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,11319,1470330,00.html

[slor]

36. This is getting scarier...

But what do you think of this idea?
<http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1745610>

[Megahurtz]

44. No Way!

I don't trust them to do anything benficial for our earth!

[CottonBear]

37. Ya think? n/t

[brainshrub]

38. No worries! The cons believe that there is no Peak Oil.

All our fuel problems are caused by damn environmentalists refusing to allow more refineries to be built in the US.

[Coastie for Truth]

41. And all of our problems will be solved

by a fleet of hydrogen fuel cell cars (20 years in the future? Maybe?) - and where are we going to get the electricity to get that hydrogen (water doesn't spontaneously decompose into hydrogen and oxygen --- it takes electricity; that's high school chemistry).

And, can we trust Detroit (and GM's comedy team of Rick Waggoner and Bob Lutz) to have the hydrogen fuel cell cars in only twenty years.

And dumb question - it actually takes less electricity to charge the batteries in real electric cars then it does to decompose the water for the hydrogen for hydrogen fuel cell cars -- so why did Waggoner and Lutz kill the EV?

We can survive "Peak Oil" - probably without even suffering James Howard Kunstler's Malthusian catastrophe ("The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of the Oil Age, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-first Century") - if we want to. But do we - as a society want to - or do we instead really want the Rapture and the Apocalyptic Armageddon instead (by "we" I mean our "leadership" and the sheeple that follow them).

[whistle]

39. Oil demand is over the top now....

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/petroleu.html#ConsumptionForecasts

[PATRICK]

40. Two pragmatic warring camps

One, alarmed and frustrated by the orthodoxy of false optimism as an imminent peril simply advances with nothing being done. perplexed rational people that is.

The second dominant group operates under the constantly self affirmed blindness of advancing profit. irrational, relying on the present picture of their huge success.

When the first group dares to raise it voice when doing so will at present harm their business more than advance a solution against the madness of power- then it is time to set aside any doubts that action must be taken ASAP.

So what are the illustrious brains in those industries going to do besides fight with denial and fear?

This speech is far too little.

[Delphinus]

42. I sent this to my son.

He lives in Phoenix and we had a long talk about this the other night. He's not necessarily a doubter, but he doesn't think it's going to happen this soon. We'll see what he says after reading it.

[earth mom]

45. This is scary and yet...

while I believe the whole Peak Oil Scenario, lately I can't help but wonder why so little is being done to find alternate sources of fuel/energy on the massive scale that is needed. I do believe there is a problem but it was way too convenient how they passed ANWR right after they announced Peak Oil in Congress. Are those in power manipulating this to benefit their friends and cronies and to milk it for all it's worth while the reality of a real problem occurring is 30 or more years off in the distance?!

Sorry, but I don't trust the majority of those in Congress-all the rethugs and some of the dems-they DO NOT put the interests of the majority of the population first and foremost. I think along with * & Co, they've found that scare tactics and fear are making far too many of us cower in our homes while we accept everything and anything they do since we're too scared to do anything to protest. It's all gotten beyond sick and twisted and it's us little guys who will take the fall and suffer the most when the sh*t hits the fan, no doubt.

That's my .02 cents or is that $2.46 the average price for a gallon of regular gas in my state? :shrug:

[midnight armadillo]

46. It's human psychology

lately I can't help but
wonder why so little is being done to find alternate sources of fuel/
energy on the massive scale that is needed. I do believe there is a
problem but it was way too convenient how they passed ANWR right after
they announced Peak Oil in Congress. Are those in power manipulating this
to benefit their friends and cronies and to milk it for all it's worth
while the reality of a real problem occurring is 30 or more years off in
the distance?!


It's a matter of human psychology - we are simply not good at making massive, pervasive changes in our behavior when the motivating threat is vague and in the distant future. Until that threat is imminent we'll continue with business as usual and keep dismissing oil prices as problems of refinery capacity, not increasing CAFE, etc.

The point of the Long Emergency article is that by the time we get around to acting it'll be too late - oil supplies will be too unpredictable and expensive to allow us the luxury of converting our economy to a mix of biofuels, batteries, and fuel cells. Beside that, there's really no replacement for oil energy, once it's gone we'll have to start living within the production capabilities of the earth for transport, and that level is a lot lower than what we enjoy now. Suburbs, massive traffice jams, etc. will be obsolete with $100/barrel oil.

Jared Diamond's book Collapse illustrates why societies fail: they fail to understand and anticipate the consequences of their actions, and combine that with a ruling elite who are insulated from problems due to vast disparities of wealth. Sound familiar?

[earth mom]

47. Thanks for your reply...now I think I really need to read that book...

:scared: