Guardian Utd (Thursday): Polls say Labour will win historic third term

[Jack Rabbit]

From the Guardian Unliomited (UK)
Dated Thursday May 5 (Election Day in Britain)

Polls say Labour will win historic third term
Brown for PM inside two years, say majority
By Alan Travis and Patrick Wintour

Labour is heading for a historic third-term victory over the Conservatives with a possible three-figure majority, according to the results of the Guardian/ICM eve-of-election survey.

The final poll, partly based on interviews completed last night, gives Labour a 38% share of the vote and the Conservatives 32% - slightly down on their 2001 performance. The Liberal Democrats look set to secure 22% of the popular vote, their highest share since the 1983 heyday of the SDP/Liberal Alliance.

A national uniform swing would suggest these figures would translate into a Labour majority of more than 130, but it is expected the much closer contest being fought in the marginals could reduce Tony Blair's majority to between 90 and 110, or lower. This would still be close to matching Margaret Thatcher's 1987 record third-term majority of 100 . . . .

The special ICM poll also reveals that more than half of all voters, 59%, and a similar number of Labour voters, do not want Mr Blair to serve a full term. Instead, they say he should step down within two years to make way for Gordon Brown. Only 14% of Labour voters say he should go immediately.

Read more.

[Nite Owl]

1. This is good then right?

Labor win and then Blair steps down would be better than having the Tories win it.

[Jack Rabbit]

3. I think so

But rather sardonically.

Blair should be tried for war crimes, right along side of you-know-who. Nevetheless, the British people don't want to go back to the bad old days of Thatcherism and returning Labour to power is the best way to assure that doesn't happen.

[lovuian]

2. Is Blair going to step down??? Liberal Democrats are coming on!!!

It will be an interesting election!!!

[Jack Rabbit]

4. Prediction

It won't be that interesting. While I would vote Liberal Democratic were I British, Labour will retain a huge majoirty in Commons. I think it will be about 120 seats.

[GainesT1958]

5. I'm a fan of (most) Labour domestic initiatives...

They've really helped Britain improve its standard of living, particularly for the middle class and lower-income people. They, as a party on the whole, deserve a third term in goverment, IMO.

But I suuuure hope Gordon Brown succeeds Tony Blair as P.M. fairly soon. When it comes to Iraq, Tony lied to his Cabinet and, much more importantly, to his people. To boot, he's still acting as if it doesn't matter. It's high time for Tony to stand down!x(

B-)

[Turn CO Blue]

6. But, but...I was told polls aren't reliable!

Hmmm. Do they also trust the exit polls over there?

[donheld]

7. When is the election?

I could find no dates.

[muriel_volestrangler]

8. Today - now, even. Polls close at 10pm UK time. (n/t)

[Jack Rabbit]

9. Last MORI poll

This shows a last-minute swing away from Labour, but not enough to save the Tories. Tuesday's poll was a bit of an outlier; today's MORI poll is in line with most of the others.

Quoted by the BBC:

Labour: 38%
Conservative: 32%
Liberal Democrat: 23%
Other: 6%

Using the BBC's seat calculator, this translates to:

Labour: 393
Conservative: 173
Liberal Democrat: 59
Other: 21

That would be a 140-seat majority for Labour, approximately the same as Tories' majority in the second Thatcher government.