Hurricane Emily Monitoring Thread... Category 5 Headed For Cancun, Texas?

[althecat]

Thought a monitoring thread for this huge hurricane might be in order... will launch it with a cool picture of Emily's eye...



Followed by the latest discussion

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/170304.shtml

000
WTNT45 KNHC 170304
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

EMILY HAS REMAINED ESSENTIALLY STEADY-STATE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS AS A HIGH-END CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. HOWEVER... AN
AIRCRAFT RECON FIX AT 2340Z DID INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD
FALLEN 8 MB SINCE 18Z TO 929 MB... AND A MORE RECENT FIX MEASURED
931 MB. THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT WAS 149 KT... WHICH SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT
135 KT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 6.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA AND 7.0 FROM
TAFB... SO THERE IS NOT MUCH BASIS ON WHICH TO UPGRADE TO A
CATEGORY FIVE AT THIS TIME. SINCE BOTH THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN APPEAR TO POSE NOTHING
OBVIOUS TO WEAKEN EMILY... INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES WILL LIKELY
DETERMINE INTENSITY CHANGES BEFORE EMILY PASSED OVER OR NEAR THE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE INTENSITY OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH TIME EMILY SPENDS
OVER YUCATAN... BUT IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT IT WILL MAINTAIN MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK... NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/16. THIS EXTRAPOLATED MOTION IS USED
TO CONSTRUCT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OUT TO ABOUT 36 HOURS...
AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.... SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS... ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN OUTLIERS... DO NOT INITIALIZE THE POSITION OR SHORT-TERM
MOTION VERY WELL. IF ANYTHING... THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS... SO I SEE NO REASON TO SHIFT
THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS STILL TO SOON...
HOWEVER... TO DETERMINE IF LANDFALL ON THE NORTH AMERICAN MAINLAND
WILL OCCUR IN NORTHERN MEXICO OR IN TEXAS.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 17.5N 80.3W 135 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 18.5N 82.6W 135 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 19.8N 85.8W 135 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W 95 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 19/0000Z 22.2N 92.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 24.0N 97.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 25.0N 101.5W 55 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 22/0000Z 25.0N 105.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING

And warning graphics

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/034424.shtml?5day
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0505W5_sm2+gif/034424W_sm.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/034424.shtml?chart

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0505I_sm2+gif/034424P_sm.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/034424.shtml?swath
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0505S_sm2+gif/034424P_sm.gif

[SoCalDem]

1. Looks like Mother Nature wants to reclaim the Yucatan

and this one might do it..

[althecat]

2. Another image of Emily in the Carribean...

[althecat]

4. Another closeup of Emily's eye

[althecat]

23. Another image of Emily's eye

[althecat]

33. Emily just before she arrived over the Yucatan

[OKDem08]

3. Cancun vacation

My husband & I were planning on a Cancun vacation in mid-July which we delayed to begin Aug. 8.
Today, I received in the mail a Federal jury summons to appear on Aug. 8, the day we were to fly out of Dallas, TX. Sh**! Why don't we have these type of bizarre, beyond probability things occur when we visit Vegas?

[SoCalDem]

6. send a copy of your ticket.. you can get excused

and serve later:)

[OKDem08]

7. The pamphlet I was sent along w/the summons

indicated only extreme hardships would suffice as justifiable 'excuses'. I just assumed our vacation would not be characterized as such. Thank you for your input.

[SoCalDem]

8. My friend had non-refundable tickets and she was excused..

That's why I mentioned it.. But she was called the next rotation:)She went in..and was excused by 2 pm on day one.

[Divernan]

12. If Cancun gets hit like Grand Cayman did last year, forget your trip

Grand Cayman's resorts were closed for months. I'd expect Cancun will suffer the same damage. Take it you've never been in or near a hurricane, or you'd be VERY thankful that you'd canceled your trip and express SOME concern for what the local people there are facing - the loss of their homes, treasured belongings and businesses, lasting psychological trauma, and months of physical hardship while trying to put their homes back together.

[Freedomfried]

5. Ohhh, its just a little thunderstorm

dats nothin

[althecat]

9. Infrared Satellite Image Loop...

Click on this link to see Emily in animation...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

[althecat]

10. An exceedingly good link to monitor this over the coming 72 hours...

An exceedingly good link to monitor this over the coming 72 hours...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

[Divernan]

11. Evacuating Cozumel and Isla de Mujeres sounds impossible to me

I heard yesterday that both islands (Cozumel a bit south of Cancun and Isla de Mujeres right off the coast of Cancun) were to be evacuated. This morning's weather channel report confirms they are right in the path and that Emily is back up to a strong (150 mph) Stage Four. Given the tens of thousands of tourists and residents on Cozumel, can't see how there are/were enough planes to get them out. There are large ferries with service to Playa del Carmen and Cancun from Cozumel, but Playa and Cancun are also being evacuated. So once they get to the mainland, there will be a shortage of transportation to move them elsewhere, and the road system tends toward two lanes. If they all head to Merida, that's in the path of the storm too. There's no highway like in the Florida Keys and up the mainland to get people out. I'm afraid a lot of the locals will choose to stay to protect their property.

I''ve met many fine people in the Yucatan and I hope they can find a safe harbour from this storm.

[althecat]

13. lets pray emily turns to the north.... I have friends in merida..

[althecat]

15. There's some useful historical info in this blog.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

"Emily is likely to strike Mexico's Yucatan as a Category 4 hurricane, perhaps even a Category 5. What can we expect the effect on Mexico will be? Cozumel has the unfortunate distinction of experiencing a strike by the most powerful hurricane of all time--1988's Hurricane Gilbert. Gilbert struck Cozumel Island and Cancun as a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds estimated at 170 mph. A storm surge of 15 - 20 feet occurred near and north of Cancun. Damage to Cancun alone was estimated at $80 million. Overall, Mexico suffered a total of over $2 billion in damage and 202 people killed. Most of the deaths and damage came not in the Yucatan, but in Monterry. Gilbert crossed the Gulf of Mexico and struck the Mexican coast south of Texas, bringing torrential rains of more than ten inches to the mountains surrounding the Monterry area. The current official NHC forecast puts Emily in a similar location by Wednesday. The exact location of the landfall in the Gulf of Mexico will depend critically on the timing and strength of a small trough of low pressure that is forecast to swing across the northern U.S. on Tuesday. The global models have been consistent at keeping the amplitude of this trough small, which means that the threat to the Texas coast north of Corpus Christi is quite small. However, the timing of the trough is more uncertain, and will greatly influence the final landfall location of Emily. If the trough is quick to pass, a high pressure ridge will build in and force Emily further south. A slower-moving trough could draw Emily further north and bring a landfall near Brownsville, Texas."

[malaise]

17. Emily is dangerous but

compared to either Gilbert (which literally went through Jamaica from Morant Point to Negril) and Ivan, she is a very small hurricane. Additionally, Emily is moving really fast and will not hang around like Gilbert or Ivan.
Would love her to move North but that would also mean that Texas would take a serious hit. What hasn't been mentioned so far is that if Emily goes through the Yucatan peninsula, will Mexico's oil industry take a hit.


http://www.hurricaneville.com/gilbert.html

Check out Gilbert and compare to Emily
http://www.awesome80s.com/Awesome80s/Tech/Nature/Disasters/Hurricanes/88Sept10-Gilbert.asp

[pilgrimsoul]

19. Yes, that is my question, too

Where are Mexico's offshore oil rigs in relation to the storm's projected path? Are we in for some more hurt in terms of energy prices in the short term?

[malaise]

20. in the Yucatan Peninsula

so if Emily goes right through there will be more trouble for oil - here are three links
http://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/cantarell/
http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=376122&BCCode=BNBUSINESS&newsdate=7/12/2005

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20050713/bs_nm/markets_oil_dc

<edit - add link and snip>
"The market ... is one Category 4 hurricane away from going back above $60 a barrel," said David Thurtell, commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

"(If) prudence determines that every passing storm requires evacuation of rigs, the season still could be disruptive," said oil analyst John Kilduff of Fimat USA.

Venezuelan authorities ordered several oil tankers in the key refining zone of Puerto La Cruz to remain in port, likely delaying exports.

Analysts tracking Emily's path said it could hit the Cantarell oil field in Mexico, which could immediately wipe out 2.5 percent of the world's daily oil production of around 84 million barrels.

[Dover]

21. BP will likely lose their billion dollar oil platform, already damaged by

Dennis.



BP says Thunder Horse platform levels slightly
Fri Jul 15, 2005 12:50 PM ET
Printer Friendly | Email Article | Reprints | RSS

By Timothy Gardner

NEW YORK (Reuters) - BP Plc. (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Friday its $1 billion Thunder Horse oil and natural gas platform in the Gulf of Mexico has made slight progress in leveling from its 20 degree tilt after workers secured pumps to remove water from ballast tanks.

BP discovered on Monday that the semi-submersible platform, the world's largest, was tilting after Hurricane Dennis hit the gulf. The company does not know the cause of the leaning and has said Dennis may not be to blame.

As Hurricane Emily could veer more north and edge closer to offshore oil and gas production in the gulf, BP has hired Dutch towage firm SMIT Internationale (SMTNc.AS: Quote, Profile, Research) to take the lead in the platform's recovery.

Thunder Horse was slated to start producing oil and gas later this year. An upstream oil analyst at the federal Energy Information Administration has said first production would probably be delayed by the tilt. But BP spokesman Ronnie Chapell said the company did not yet know if there would be a delay.

..snip..

Thunder Horse was expected to produce up to 250,000 barrels per day of oil. It is the biggest planned boost in oil production in the Americas, and is seen by the U.S. government as the biggest of a handful of offshore gulf projects that could help the United States stop a decline in crude production since the 1970s...cont'd

http://today.reuters.com/business/newsArticle.aspx?type=ousiv&storyID=2005-07-15T165031Z_01_N15404639_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESSPRO-ENERGY-BP-THUNDERHORSE-DC.XML

--------------------

Oil Prices Surge Back Above $60 On New Hurricane Fears

File image of Hurricane Ivan
New York (AFP) Jul 12, 2005
World oil prices soared on Tuesday on concerns that US oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico could fall victim to a new tropical storm after escaping the worst of Hurricane Dennis this weekend.
New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in August, jumped 1.70 dollars to close at 60.62 dollars a barrel, off a high of 61.25 dollars.

In London, the price of Brent North Sea crude oil for delivery in August gained 1.38 dollars to end at 58.82 dollars a barrel.

Dennis was the first hurricane of this year's season in the Atlantic. While killing at least 57 people in the Caribbean and five in two US southern states, it largely spared the Gulf of Mexico.

But fears were mounting that oil platforms could be vulnerable to the next tempest on its way, Tropical Storm Emily, which the US National Hurricane Center in Miami said has the potential to become a hurricane soon...cont'd

http://www.terradaily.com/news/energy-tech-05zzzo.html


--------------------

BP Works to Right $1 Billion Oil Platform

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/bp_oil_platform

[althecat]

14. Once it gets past the Yucatan... it hits some very very warm water

[Delphinus]

16. Hurricanes love warm water, yes? n/t

[Bridget Burke]

34. Yes, they gain strength from warm water.

When going over land, the hurricane begins to lose shape & the winds lessen. But the heavy rains continue & can cause problems far inland.

[OKNancy]

18. Thank you for posting this

sometimes we can bend rules a bit if it is in the best interest of LBN and getting information out.

I think it would be good if other posters would post their articles in this thread for a while...until the news changes or it strikes land.

Thanks
OKNancy
LBN modertor

[whatelseisnew]

22. Looks like the eye's breaking (+3 more maps)

From wunderground.com:



From noaa.gov:



From Ramsdis Online http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html:



(added a map)

[althecat]

24. A Map of the Yucutan

[malaise]

26. Looks like Texas better get ready

Emily will go through Cozumel or just below and come out higher than early forecasts suggested. Do not rule out a direct hit in South Texas.
<edit -add word>

[althecat]

25. Blogger blogging the hurricane from Cozumel

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/InCozumel/show.html

I wish him luck with his internet connection.... latest indications are landfall will take place with 150mph winds... according to the blogger winds are currently around 75 mph.

[cliss]

27. Wow. Scary

Just looking at that enormous eye of the hurricane is chilling. I can't imagine how nervous the residents must be, not to mention all those high-end hotels, luxury homes and such. I hope everyone can get out in time.

NOW, I'd like to know what Einstein Bush's opinion is of this. How can I forget Bush's comment, "Silly science" about global warming. How bad does it need to get before he says something? How many deaths? How much damage.

On the radio, the newsperson commented that this was the "biggest hurricane in history to strike in July (?) is this correct? If that's true, it's going to be a long, hot summer and Bush better open his big, ignorant mouth.

[althecat]

28. Yes.... this is the biggest this early... the previous record being Dennis

... plus there have never before been four named storms by this time in July.... and now there are six.

[6th Borough]

31. He's a Yankee...oh, and probably.

Why the hell would the Shrub care? He's got a home and hearth up in Connecticut.

As far as the power of this hurricane goes, well, it's a doozy, and it is very] early in the season.

Don't forget, Andrew (first tropical storm, never mind hurricane), the most damaging natural phenomenon to ever hit the USA, made landfall on August...4th? I think. Definitely August.

This is an early bird for sure.

[denese]

44. too bad for these folks ...

that it's not right before a presidential election in Florida.
Then ** would be all over it.
Going through a hurricane like this is absolutely terrifying.
I know we will all keep those facing this in our hearts.

[Dover]

29. Looks like Cozumel took a direct hit. Might Emily head further north?

It sure looks like she might track more toward the Texas/Louisianna border.

[althecat]

30. According to the boffins and the models it is unlikely....

... all the discussion talks about some trough over the US pushing Emily south... but we shall see...

[althecat]

32. Latest advisory... texas landfall remains possible but unlikely

000
WTNT45 KNHC 180853
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005

THE EYEWALL OF HURRICANE EMILY PASSED OVER COZUMEL A FEW HOURS AGO.
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OVERFLEW THE ISLAND
DURING THE EYEWALL PASSAGE...AT 05Z...AND REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 124 KT. AT 0322Z...THEY REPORTED 141 KT. LANDFALL
OCCURRED NEAR 0630Z JUST NORTH OF TULUM. THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA
SUGGEST THAT EMILY LIKELY MADE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 115 KT. NO OBSERVATIONS HAVE YET
BEEN RECEIVED FROM THE LANDFALL AREA.

EMILY WILL BE SPENDING ROUGHLY 9 HOURS OVER THE YUCATAN...BUT IS
LIKELY TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THIS PASSAGE. A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER EMILY...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN WITHIN 12-24
HOURS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
LIKELY ONCE THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. JUST HOW MUCH EMILY RESTRENGTHENS IS PARTLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT THAT THE INNER CORE IS DISRUPTED AFTER
PASSING OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN.

THE INITIAL MOTION...295/15...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO BASICALLY UNCHANGED. NOAA AND AIR
FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT CONDUCTED SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS IN
THE GULF AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN LAST NIGHT. DROPSONDE DATA FROM
THESE MISSIONS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOLIDLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN
A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER LOW IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE COULD ALSO RESULT IN A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE
TRACK. HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE INFLUENCES SHOULD DIMINISH IN
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO AND THE TRACK SHOULD THEN BEND BACK TOWARD
THE LEFT. THE GFS...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THIS STORM...IS
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHILE THE NOGAPS IS
ON THE NORTHERN EGDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH IN FACT HAS OUTPERFORMED BOTH
THE NOGAPS AND GFS WITH THIS CYCLONE. NONE OF THE STANDARD GUIDANCE
SHOWS A LANDFALL IN SOUTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN
THAT THE AVERAGE 48 HOUR TRACK ERROR IS ABOUT 140 NMI...SUCH A
LANDFALL IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.

1-MINUTE DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42056 WERE HELPFUL IN ADJUSTING THE 34
KT WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0900Z 20.6N 88.0W 95 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 21.6N 90.1W 75 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 22.9N 92.8W 85 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 23.8N 95.2W 95 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 24.4N 97.7W 100 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 21/0600Z 25.0N 103.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED


$$

[althecat]

35. Computer Model Landfall forecasts moving closer to the border...

[althecat]

36. Scoop: Supercomputer Weather: Countdown To Emily's Landfall

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0507/S00271.htm

Featuring some of the images above...

[althecat]

37. Links to satellite images of the landfall zone

SATELLITE PIC
http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=24.647017,-97.866211&spn=4.780151,7.493774&t=k&hl=en

MAP
http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=24.647017,-97.866211&spn=4.343394,7.493774&hl=en

[althecat]

38. Two cool Satellite pics of Emily in the Gulf

Both from NASA's MODIS Satellites
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/

[althecat]

39. Latest Discussion - Predicts Cat 3 on landfall

For reference Cat 3 is same as Dennis was on landfall...

000
WTNT45 KNHC 190849
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT EMILY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE THE MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL ABOUT 90 KT...THE WINDS INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ON THE LAST PASS...AND THE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS DECREASED. SINCE THE PLANE LEFT...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION THAT HAS
COVERED THE EYE SEEN EARLIER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KT...AND
THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE NEXT PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE IN EMILY ABOUT 0930Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/13...WITH THE EYE WOBBLING BETWEEN 295-300
DEGREES ACCORDING TO THE AIRCRAFT FIXES. EMILY REMAINS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
WITH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HR. RAWINSONDE DATA FROM TEXAS SUGGESTS THE MODELS MAY
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...AS 20-30 METER
HEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME OF THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE EMILY IN THE RIGHT PLACE.
OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT EMILY SHOULD TURN
WESTWARD UNDER THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR...WITH THE BIG
QUESTION OF WHEN AND HOW SHARP WILL THE TURN BE. SINCE THE STORM
IS NOT YET OFF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...THE NEW TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. HOWEVER...IF THE TURN IS LATER OR MORE GRADUAL THAN
FORECAST...EMILY COULD MAKE LANDFALL CLOSER TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

WITH THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND THE RETURN OF STRONG
CONVECTION...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR EMILY TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL LANDFALL. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE STORM TO
REACH CATEGORY THREE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL...A VALUE SOMEWHAT
ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS GFDL
RUN. EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY 72 HR.

IF EMILY FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE RIGHT COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO TEXAS. THEREFORE...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 23.5N 93.5W 80 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 24.1N 95.2W 90 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 24.5N 97.3W 100 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 24.5N 99.6W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 21/0600Z 24.5N 102.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED


$$

[althecat]

40. Latest GFS Run.... Pressure, Rain & Wind On Landfall

Note the NHWC still thinks Emily will turn and make landfall considerably to the south of this computer model. However if this is correct then Brownsville is in for some rough weather.

PRESSURE



RAIN



WIND

[slackmaster]

41. See the Water Vapor channel movie to observe strengthening

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/storm/archive/javawv3.html

[althecat]

42. There is another one here.... This really is amazing....

I would love to know how normal this is..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

[althecat]

52. Satellite Images Of Emily Just Before Landfall

[althecat]

43. Early morning update from NHC via blog on Weather Underground...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/NHC2005/show.html

AM synopsis:
Emily has made its way into warm water and favorable upper air conditions with a high building over the system. A CDO has made its way around a defined center of circulation and an eye is present. The storm is now exhibiting falling pressures as indicated by recon. and cloud tops in and around the eyewall have cooled overnight as indicated by IR and dvork, indicating more consistent and faster intensification. Current winds are 90 mph and I suspect 100-105 is the next tier and we go up to major hurricane status from there by evening. Max should be 125-130 mph.

All models still clustered around MX. landfall. Looking at the storms fwd. movement and what is indicated on the progs. as a westward building ridge (that the models now forecasted properly), I think they are not too far of. If you factor in the model error to date, you can push landfall north somewhat, but still not directly over the lower coast of TX. It looks as though the models are all handling the storm and the gulf of mexico environment much better now. Main questions coming in tom me have been: 1) What effects will TX have? 2) How strong will this get?

1. I think this effects lower TX coast w/ tropical storm force winds and heavy squally rain and T-storm bands. TX needs the rain, so this may not be the worst thing... Don't rule out the occasionally 60-70 mph wind gust-especially in a squall and keep a lookout for waterspouts/small twisters.
As for MX, this will be coming in as a strengthening CAT 3 storm in my opinion and should really do the most damage in terms of landslides once it moves inland a bit. The coast will not be devestated, but significant damage should occur within 25 mi. of the eye. Once the storm moves inland, some moisture could stream northward but I think it will have a tought time getting over the mountains.

[althecat]

45. Update same source... now thinks will be cat 4 by landfall

(edit) OTOH some folks over there seem to think this blogger is full of it...

[althecat]

46. Latest NASA Modis pic of Emily in gulf (with eye closeup)

[althecat]

47. Emily is proving fairly unpredictable.. now moving slowly

And with 942mm pressure in the middle is close if not already at Cat 4

[TexasBushwhacker]

48. It's pouring in East Austin

a fair amount of lightning too.

[althecat]

49. NHWC - Update.... Maybe Cat 4 on landfall

000
WTNT45 KNHC 192248
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY OF EMILY. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB
FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WERE 122 KT AT 2126Z...
SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KT. THE WINDS HAVE NOW
CAUGHT UP TO THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE THAT WAS ALREADY TYPICAL
OF AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ADDITIONALLY... THE WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE
LATEST AIRCRAFT DATA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS... AND EMILY COULD REACH
CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS
NOT BEEN CHANGED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2300Z 24.5N 96.0W 110 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 24.6N 97.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 24.7N 99.3W 40 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
36HR VT 21/0600Z 24.7N 101.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
48HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED


$$

[althecat]

50. Emily Stops - Confuses Forecasters.....

Link to radar image
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?num=40&scale=1&delay=15&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&showlabels=1&ID=BRO&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0Z&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&prevzoom=zoom


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Posted: 8:50pm EDT Tue July 19
============================
OK, I give up trying to predict what Emily is going to do, I'm just going to watch. Brownsville 248 nm mile range radar shows that Emily has essentially stalled the past 75 minutes. The 7:18pm recon flight showed that the central pressure had risen 6 mb to 948 mb, and saw no increase in flight level winds. With the storm sitting in place, lots of cold water is going to upwell beneath her and make it difficult to intensify further. In fact, the eye appears less distinct than two hours ago, and is filling with clouds. However, a very impressive circular Cirrus Dense Overcast has formed over the hurricane, and the overall banding and outflow still look impressive. Once the hurricane starts moving again away from its cold pool it kicked up underneath itself, it could start intensifying again. What's next, Emily??

As many of you noticed, we've had some problems with my blog disappearing today. The software for this is still in its experimental stages, and has been put to the test today! It seems we sometimes have problems when multiple comments are posted simultaneously. Bear with us, we'll try to keep things working while we craft a permanent fix. Expect to see many improvements in the blog interface over the next few weeks, the code is still under heavy development.

Dr. Jeff Masters

Posted: 4:50pm EDT Tue July 19
============================
I should know better than to doubt this hurricane's abilty to bounce back from adversity! Emily's pressure has dropped 13 mb the past 3 1/2 hours, and is now a 959 mb storm. The winds are still at 95 mph or so, and will take a few hours for Emily to adjust to the new pressure. The satellite presentation and pressure both point towards a Category 3 hurricane, and I imagine the surface winds will be close to 115 mph (minimal Category 3 status) by this evening. The track is doing some major wobbles as the storm reorganizes and deepens, but appears to have a more westward bend. The Hurricane Center is doing the proper conservative thing by advertising a continued WNW motion toward the Texas/Mexico border until the westward turn becomes more obvious.

The hurricane is impressive to watch on the Brownsville 248 nm mile range radar.

[althecat]

51. Update From NHWC - Cat 4 and climbing.... Emily resumes westward movement

000
WTNT45 KNHC 200300
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005

THE LAST TWO RECON FIXES JUST PRIOR TO 00Z INDICATED THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STILL FALLING... ALTHOUGH MORE SLOWLY THAN IT
HAD BEEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AIRCRAFT CREW REPORTED
THAT THE MEASUREMENT 942 MB AT 2114Z WAS SUSPECT... THERE IS
CONFIDENCE IN THE 948 MB MEASURED AT 2318Z... AND A MORE RECENT FIX
NEAR 02Z OF 944 MB INDICATED THE DECREASING TREND CONTINUES. THE
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 122 KT AT 2126Z REMAINS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... AND 00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGED FROM 100 TO 115 KT... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
110 KT. THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF EMILY IS IMPRESSIVE... WITH A 17
NM WIDE EYE AND A WELL-DEFINED INNER EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY A
CONCENTRIC BAND AT A RADIUS OF 35 NMI. GIVEN THE PRESSURE FALLS
AND WELL-ORGANIZED INTERNAL STRUCTURES... SOME ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

EMILY TOOK A JOG TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN BRIEFLY STALLED BETWEEN 23Z
AND 01Z... BUT A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SEEMS TO HAVE
RESUMED... ESTIMATED AT 285/6. 00Z UPPER DATA INDICATES NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES. EMILY SHOULD STEADILY MOVE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD
DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AS ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST. THIS SHOULD BRING EMILY TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND WELL INLAND OVER MOUNTAINOUS
INTERIOR MEXICO BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ALONG THE
SAME PATH AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... JUST A LITTLE SLOWER DUE TO
THE RECENT STALL.

THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS BASED
ON BUOY DATA... AND THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY MORE
BASED ON RECENT AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL DATA.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 24.5N 96.4W 110 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 24.7N 97.8W 120 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 21/0000Z 24.7N 100.2W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED


$$

[althecat]

53. Landfall Imminent.... Ground Zero Images....

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=40&delay=15&scale=0.554&noclutter=0&ID=BRO&type=N0Z&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=388&map.y=264.5¢erx=371¢ery=120


http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=24.850731,-97.649231&spn=0.233854,0.317677&t=k&hl=en

[Karenina]

54. Kick!

:kick: