STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 29 June

[ozymandius]

Thursday June 29, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 937 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2014 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1714 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1675
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 28, 2006

Dow... 10,973.56 +48.82 (+0.45%)
Nasdaq... 2,111.84 +11.59 (+0.55%)
S&P 500... 1,246.00 +6.80 (+0.55%)
Gold future... 581.00 -3.40 (-0.59%)
30-Year Bond 5.28% +0.04 (+0.76%)
10-Yr Bond... 5.25% +0.04 (+0.67%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Chris Puplava

THE DILEMMA FACING THE FED: CHOOSING BETWEEN THE LESSER OF TWO EVILS

Hopefully by tomorrow we will know what concerns the Fed the most and which way they are going to take us. The Fed must choose between saving the economy by going on pause at the risk of continued inflation and a weakening dollar, or they continue their fight on inflation and support the dollar at the risk of sending us into a recession. Thus, a choice must be made between the lesser of two evils. I will illustrate the dilemma the Fed is in. I’ve included economic data on both the inflation picture and economy below, starting with the inflation front.

The inflation picture has remained a concern for the Fed for good reason. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is currently at a 4% annual growth rate, with the core CPI at a 2.5% year-over-year (YOY) growth rate, above the 2% Fed comfort level.



-cut-

Producer prices are also on the rise with the Producer Price Index (PPI) experiencing a 4% YOY growth rate seen in May with core PPI rising just under 2% YOY. The main cause for the rise in producer prices is in energy inputs. Price appreciation among intermediate (1.0%) and crude (2.5%) energy goods remained at elevated levels. In intermediate energy products, jet fuel and home heating fuel saw significant price gains. Crude energy prices for natural gas, crude oil, and coal all rose more than 2.0% in May.

-cut-

What is demonstrated above is a troubling inflation picture as well as a weakening economy. Tomorrow will shed some light on the Fed’s choice of fighting inflation and supporting the dollar at the expense of an already weakening economy, or a calling a pause to interest rates to support the economy at the expense of rising inflation and a weakening dollar. Either way, the Fed has to choose which is the lesser of the two evils.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Final Q1
Briefing Forecast 3.3%
Market Expects 3.3%
Prior 3.3%

8:30 AM GDP-Final Q1
Briefing Forecast 5.3%
Market Expects 5.6%
Prior 5.3%

8:30 AM Initial Claims 06/24
Briefing Forecast 310K
Market Expects 310K
Prior 308K

10:00 AM Help-Wanted Index May
Briefing Forecast 36
Market Expects 35
Prior 35

2:15 PM FOMC policy statement

[UpInArms]

22. 8:30 Reports tumbling in:

8:30 AM ET 6/29/06 U.S. Q1 DURABLE GOODS SPENDING UP 20.3%

8:30 AM ET 6/29/06 U.S. CONTINUING CLAIMS RISE BY 54,000 TO 2.41 MILLION

8:30 AM ET 6/29/06 U.S. Q1 FINAL SALES UP 5.9%

8:30 AM ET 6/29/06 U.S. Q1 EQUIPMENT, SOFTWARE INVESTMENT UP 14.8%

8:30 AM ET 6/29/06 U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE BY 4,000 TO 313,000

8:30 AM ET 6/29/06 U.S. Q1 CORPORATE PROFITS UP 28.5% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

8:30 AM ET 6/29/06 U.S. Q1 BUSINESS INVESTMENT UP 14.2%

8:30 AM ET 6/29/06 U.S. Q1 CONSUMER SPENDING RISES 5.1%

8:30 AM ET 6/29/06 U.S. Q1 CORE PCE PRICES UP 2%, UP 1.9% Y-O-Y

8:30 AM ET 6/29/06 U.S. Q1 GDP REVISED TO 5.6% VS. 5.3% EARLIER, 5.5% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

23. GDP revised to 5.6% in first quarter

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B6BA53B2D%2D4940%2D4615%2D8F36%2D935056D73CB6%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy grew at a revised 5.6% annual rate in the first quarter, the fastest rate in nearly three years, the Commerce Department said Thursday in its final revision to gross domestic product estimates.

A month ago, the government said the economy grew at a 5.3% pace after a tepid 1.7% pace in the fourth quarter. Economists now expect growth to soften slightly to around 3% for the next few quarters, close to the economy's long-run non-inflationary speed limit.

While real growth was a bit faster than the expected 5.5% revision, inflation was revised lower, taking some of the pressure off the Federal Reserve, which meets later Thursday to discuss a 17th straight interest rate hike.

As in earlier estimates, first-quarter growth was spurred by consumer spending, business investments in equipment and software, an improvement in the trade deficit, and higher federal government spending. Inventories subtracted from growth.

<snip>

Corporate profits grew 11.9% quarter-over-quarter, and are up 28.5% in the past year, the fastest year-over-year growth in 22 years.

Core consumer price inflation rose at a 2.0% annual rate during the quarter, down from 2.4% in the fourth quarter. Core inflation has risen 1.9% in the past year, at the high end of the Fed's comfort zone.

...more...

[UpInArms]

26. more info:

Consumer spending was the main engine of growth in the quarter, rising at a 5.1% pace, the fastest since the third quarter of 2003. Consumer spending contributed 3.5 percentage points to growth. Spending on durable goods rose 20.3% after dropping by 16.6% in the fourth quarter.

<snip>

Exports increased 14.7%, while goods exports rose 18.5%, the biggest gain in nine years. Imports increased 10.7%. Net imports subtracted 0.2 percentage points from growth.

[fasttense]

31. Of course when inflation goes up the GDP goes up and consumer

spending goes up but we wont go there. Happy days are here again!

[AnneD]

50. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: and lurkers. fasttense...we are on the same page this morning. I was wondering how much of that 'growth' in spending was due to inflation.

I have to admit I actually bought stuff last month...I bought some extra things last month to make the new place a little nicer and a few new outfits (shirts and shorts to replace my 4yr old outfits). Costs were higher so I bought less than I use to purchase-3 pair set instead of 5 pair set. I put some things on lay a way to get out in August. It is all paid in cash though, no credit cards though.

And speaking of credit....as some of you may know, I was in the Army Reserve and the IRR for a total of over 8 years. I never showed for my physical (I was pregnant with my daughter at the time) the last year of IRR but got papers to the effect I was hon. discharged. This discharge was months before the first Gulf War. I was in Nursing School and was really sweating bullets that they would do some shady IRR skills draft (they drafted several of the Doc's I worked with) so I kept a low profile. I have blissfully worked the last 16 years safe in the knowledge that the military can't keep up with their payroll let alone someone that got out of the service 16 years ago.......until last week.

I received a letter from the DOD that my records were in the group that was stolen. Now my credit isn't stellar-so they won't get much off of that...but what made me crap my pants is that they located my address-and I have never sent a change of address to them or through the post office. If they can give me a letter about stolen data, they can give me a report to duty letter just as easily, especially since I have a skill that they are short in. Hubby thinks I am being paranoid, but his anti-war activist friend (who happens to have signed up for and now sits on the local draft board-should it ever be activated) said I should be concerned. I'll watch and see. I use to think some of these conspiracy theorist folks were nuts, but not any more.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears:hi: and have a great extended weekend UIA.

[NC_Nurse]

58. I just read that they recovered the laptop

that was stolen and the vets records were not accessed. I'll go look for the link...

[NC_Nurse]

59. Here it is!

Sounds like good news! :-)

[AnneD]

70. While I am glad they recovered the info....

I am not so happy at the ease with which the found me. Are you familiar with the skills draft? Most Doc's are familiar with it (esp the older guys). They can also draft Nurses too (actually anyone that falls into a special skills catagory). Most Nurses laugh and think I am crazy when I say Nurses can be drafted....but we can. And I have military experience, so I have an increased risk.

Thanks for the info-link didn't make it but I saw it on one of the other threads.

[RawMaterials]

73. Ya and now it has a trojan horse on it so they can steal

the rest of the info in the government.

[Roland99]

40. All that profit and going where? Not to the employees in the forms of...

salaries, healthcare benefits, and retirement benefits.

[UpInArms]

24. U.S. initial jobless claims rise by 4,000 to 313,000 - last wk rev'd up 1k

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BA65536B4%2D886C%2D4CC8%2DB482%2D4F9FABC7AF8D%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time applications for state unemployment benefits rose by 4,000 to 313,000 in the week ending June 24, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week average of new claims dropped by 6,000 to 305,500, the lowest since Feb. 25. The previous week's initial claims were revised to 309,000 from 308,000. Analysts surveyed by MarketWatch had been expecting jobless claims to rise to 311,000. The four-week moving average of continuing claims fell by 2,750 to 2.40 million, down by 2,750. It's the lowest since Jan. 27, 2001.

[UpInArms]

66. FOMC hikes rate to 5.25%, major changes to statement

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BB2268D79%2DD948%2D4FBA%2DAC17%2D40F6D7BDE17A%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Open Market Committee increased its target for overnight interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 5.25% Thursday. This is the 17th straight meeting with a quarter-point rate hike. The increase in the federal funds rate was expected by traders and economists on Wall Street. The vote was unanimous. The committee made major changes to the explanatory statement, removing the phrase that some further measured policy firming "may" be needed. Instead, the FOMC said "any additional firming that may be needed" will depend on the economic outlook.

2:16 PM ET 6/29/06 FOMC MAKES MAJOR CHANGES TO MAY 10 STATEMENT

2:16 PM ET 6/29/06 FOMC VOTE TO HIKE RATES UNANIMOUS

2:16 PM ET 6/29/06 FOMC:SAYS CORE INFLATION HAS BEEN ELEVATED

2:16 PM ET 6/29/06 FOMC SAYS INFLATION RISKS REMAIN

2:16 PM ET 6/29/06 FOMC SAYS GROWTH IS MODERATING

2:16 PM ET 6/29/06 FOMC: "ANY ADDITIONAL FIRMING" DEPENDS ON OUTLOOK

2:16 PM ET 6/29/06 FOMC HIKES RATES BY QUARTER POINT TO 5.25%

:wtf: The markets are having an orgasm :eyes:

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises on robust US gasoline demand

LONDON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil climbed further above $72 on Thursday, extending a week-long rally, as resilient U.S. gasoline demand and lingering geopolitical tensions offset inflation fears.

U.S. crude rose 28 cents at $72.47 a barrel by 0940 GMT, adding to gains of 27 cents on Wednesday. London Brent crude traded 40 cents higher at $71.81.

Prices have risen in six consecutive sessions in a gasoline-led rally, as American drivers continue to fill up their tanks despite high pump prices.

Gasoline prices rose after inventories fell by 1 million barrels amid strong demand ahead of the July 4 Independence Day holiday when travel is expected to be busier than ever.

more

[ozymandius]

4. BP unit charged with price manipulation

WASHINGTON - Detailed allegations by federal investigators that BP traders illegally manipulated propane prices in 2004 could hurt the oil and gas industry's image at a time when consumers and Congress are upset about soaring energy costs and record profits.

Executives from BP PLC and other major oil companies have testified before Congress and stressed in TV interviews that today's sky-high prices for gasoline and other fuels are the result of market forces beyond their control — not improper behavior on the part of industry.

"Well, that's going to be a tough sell when you have headlines showing that they caught you manipulating the market," said Phil Flynn of Chicago-based Alaron Trading Corp.

more

[UpInArms]

46. Crude tops $73, set for seven-session win

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B1F1D9D14%2D1F88%2D4F20%2DB38B%2DB05AD388D5C6%7D&symbol=

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures climbed to a three-week high above $73 a barrel Thursday, heading for a seven-session winning streak, as unexpected declines in U.S. supplies of crude and gasoline and reduced refinery production following the closure of a Louisiana waterway fed concerns over fuel inventories ahead of the Independence Day holiday.

Crude for August delivery was last trading up 86 cents at $73.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after tapping a high of $73.19, level it hasn't seen since June 6. The contract has been heading higher since June 21, gaining 4% over the past six sessions.

July unleaded gasoline futures rose 6.91 cents to $2.28 a gallon following a climb to a contract high of $2.29. The record for a front-month for gasoline futures stands at $2.90 from Aug. 31. July heating oil traded at $1.993 a gallon, up 5.56 cents.

Energy trading on Nymex will close at 1 p.m. Eastern time Friday and remain closed Monday and Tuesday for Independence Day holiday.

...more...

[ozymandius]

5. Rate change explanations confuse markets

WASHINGTON - The Federal Reserve has been remarkably consistent over the past two years in its actions on interest rates, but many analysts believe it has grown erratic in its ability to explain those actions.

Many are putting the blame on new Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who has sent markets on a rollercoaster ride in recent weeks with what appeared to be conflicting statements over the future course of rates.

Fed policymakers were wrapping up a two-day meeting on Thursday, and analysts said there is little doubt the central bank will raise rates for the 17th consecutive time.

While some feared the Fed might boost rates by a half-point, most economists were looking for another quarter-point increase. That would push the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other, to 5.25 percent, the highest level in more than five years.

more

[Buttercup McToots]

6. Good Morning...FTD's

I said I would repost this on this thread this a.m.
It helped me to understand what is going on better...

http://www.businessjive.com/nss/darkside.html


Things are broken everywhere...woe
:-(

[ozymandius]

9. Good morning!

Thanks for the post. It is worth viewing for everyone.

[acmejack]

15. Thank you Buttercup.

[UpInArms]

28. g'morning Buttercup McToots!

your link doesn't work for me (am running Opera) - I will bookmark it and use IE later to view it -

Thanks!

[54anickel]

33. Ewwww, make sure you get the chance UIA. Your pals at Refco are

one of the star attractions!

[UpInArms]

35. I will, 54anickel

am not long for the computer this a.m. - have family coming in and will be gone tomorrow - but over the weekend I'll have some time to catch up - will try to give my take on it on Monday.

I wish the M$M would cover the financial news better - am going to be data deprived :(

[fasttense]

29. Thanks for posting that link Buttercup McToots

I'm in shock. All I can say is I'm glad I'm out of the stock market even if I had a loss.

[ozymandius]

7. London's FTSE driven by Wall Street rally

London equities moved higher on Thursday, after Wall Street threw off intraday losses to close higher, lifting sentiment in European markets.

The FTSE 100 started the session 47 points higher at 5,726.6, a rise of 0.9 per cent. Banks, oil stocks and miners combined to bring a sense of forward momentum to trading. The FTSE 250 was 0.7 per cent stronger at 9,260.0, a rise of 62 points. Equity investment stocks sttod out, rising in line with global market sentiment.

Overnight in New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.5 per cent at 10,973.6, overcoming earlier losses as fears about the impact of inflationary pressure within the US eased. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to increase interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25 per cent in an announcement due on Thursday evening after the end of London trading.

more

[Ghost Dog]

71. European stocks end sharply higher, Fed eyed

LONDON, June 29 (Reuters) - European shares rallied strongly to a four-week closing high on Thursday on hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve could signal plans to end a string of interest rate rises despite expectations of an imminent fresh hike.

Mining stocks led the rise with copper and gold gaining sharply while German truckmaker MAN (MANG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) shot up 4 percent thanks to strong German industrial orders and an extension of a contract from the UK Ministry of Defence.

The FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index of top European shares ended 1.8 percent up at 1,295.22 points, its highest close since June 5, although trading volumes were below average.

Global interest rate concerns have sent the benchmark down 8 percent since hitting a near five-year high on May 11 but it is 5 percent above a seven-month low of 1,230.09 struck on June 14.

"The fall in the market has presented some good buying opportunities of stocks that are undervalued and not particularly highly rated," said Paul Mumford, a fund manager at Cavendish Asset Management.

European gains were extended late on by strength on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> jumping on optimism for upbeat corporate profits after robust U.S. growth data.

<snip>

Around Europe, Germany's DAX <.GDAXI> jumped 2.3 percent, France's CAC 40 <.FCHI> rose 2.2 percent and Britain's FTSE 100 <.FTSE> gained 2 percent.

/more...

[Buttercup McToots]

8. 54anickel

Thanks for all that info on the other thread...
I read it all.
Good information...
Buttercup

[54anickel]

25. Thank you for posting the link to that thread. It was very interesting

and helped to tie a lot of what we piece together here together.

Alas, there will always be those who call some of us and people like the author of that presentation "conspiracy theorist" or "chicken-littles".



edit to add link:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x1526150

[AnneD]

51. Thanks again Toots...

I listened to it again and understood the sections that confused me in yeaterday's go round. It is a great find. Thanks for posting it here too:applause: :thumbsup:

[54anickel]

52. Wow, I certainly typed THAT before my morning coffee...

and helped to tie a lot of what we piece together here together. :crazy: Cripes that reads like a Bushism or something - GACK!!!!

It ties in nicely to what we try to piece together here - - - that's what I was trying to say.

[AnneD]

54. 54anickle....

never put you hands in the crazy...it sticks to your hands and gets all over you.

[ozymandius]

10. Treasuries fall after soft auction

US Treasuries fell and yields rose on Wednesday after a soft auction of $14bn in five-year notes helped set a downbeat mood ahead of Thursday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

Investors put in bids worth 2.05 times the paper on offer, well below a10-month average of 2.37.

Indirect bidders, including foreign central banks and fund managers, took only 18.3 per cent of the paper.

more

[UpInArms]

21. Printing Press Hums: Fed adds reserves through 14-day system repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-29T122532Z_01_N29302753_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, June 29 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Thursday that it added temporary reserves to the banking system through 14-day system repurchase agreements.

Fed funds last traded at 5.125 percent, above the Fed's current 5 percent target for the benchmark overnight lending rate.

For further details on the operation, see http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[Roland99]

36. Am I reading that right? $38 billion this week alone?

[UpInArms]

38. yes, you are reading that right -

here's a link to how many $$$ those repos represent:

http://www.321gold.com/fed/temp_bank_res.html

[UpInArms]

32. Bonds up as traders await Fed decision

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B6164C8C8%2DD5A8%2D46EE%2D8651%2DE02D04CF5290%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasurys were higher Thursday, sending yields lower, showing little reaction to final first-quarter gross domestic product and weekly jobless claims data as traders awaited today's Federal Reserve decision on interest rates and its accompanying statement.

The 10-year note was last trading up 4/32 at 99 6/32, yielding 5.23%, compared with 5.247% late Wednesday.

The Commerce Department said the U.S. economy grew at a revised 5.6% annual rate in the first quarter, its fastest in nearly three years. That was up from an earlier reading of 5.3% and above economists' expectations of 5.5%.

Core consumer price inflation rose at a 2% annual rate during the quarter, down from 2.4% in the fourth quarter. Core inflation has risen 1.9% in the past year, at the high end of the Fed's comfort zone.

<snip>

Elsewhere on the yield curve, the 30-year bond was up 10/32 at 88 22/32, yielding 5.257%.

...more...

[UpInArms]

34. Fed resumes policy meeting, US rate hike expected

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-29T130146Z_01_N29202964_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-MEETING.XML

WASHINGTON, June 29 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve policy-makers resumed a two-day meeting on Thursday that markets expect will yield a quarter-percentage point rise in the overnight federal funds rate to 5.25 percent.

The Federal Open Market Committee returned to its meeting at about 9 a.m. EDT (1300 GMT), a Fed official said. The U.S. central bank is scheduled to announce its decision around 2:15 p.m. (1815 GMT) on Thursday.

That would be the 17th straight quarter-percentage point increase in the overnight fed funds rate in a campaign of rate hikes that began in June 2004.

[UpInArms]

44. US Treasury to release capital flows revisions Friday

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-29T140254Z_01_N29225661_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-TREASURY-FLOWS.XML

WASHINGTON, June 29 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department will issue final revisions to 2004-2005 international capital flows data on Friday, an official said on Thursday.

The government issues Treasury International Capital data every month and also releases annual revisions. Preliminary revisions for the 12 months through June 2005 were issued April 30, and Friday's release will be the final revision for that period, a Treasury spokeswoman told reporters.

Markets watch the data for any signs that foreigners may be losing appetite for U.S. assets or that net flows of capital into U.S. assets such as Treasury securities may be ebbing.

[ozymandius]

11. Google Gets Into The $$$ Business

(CBS/AP) Google Inc. is unveiling a much-anticipated payment service that aims to make online shopping more convenient and give advertisers another reason to pour more money into the Internet search leader.

Google's service is designed to serve as an electronic wallet that will enable consumers to buy products and services from a bazaar of merchants without repeatedly entering the same personal and financial information at each store.

Google tested the payment service, which is called "Checkout," for nearly a year, spurring widespread speculation among Internet analysts and investors.

As Google attempts to boost its already lofty profits and become an even more prominent player in e-commerce, the company risks alienating one of its biggest advertisers - online auctioneer eBay Inc., which runs the Internet's leading payment service, PayPal.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/06/29/tech/main1763047.shtml

[RawMaterials]

42. Google should get involved

in the stock market with really cheep trades available like $1.99, combine that with the advertising and they could make some serious money.

[ozymandius]

12. Tighter, Tighter: When Will Fed Increases Start to Pinch?

The Federal Reserve is on track to lift its benchmark interest rate again today for a 17th consecutive quarter-percentage-point increase over 25 months, making this the longest sustained campaign on record of raising interest rates.

So why isn't the economy choking by now?

The short answer is that money is still pretty cheap, in historical terms. But Americans are finally starting to feel the squeeze, as higher borrowing costs cool the housing market, depress automobile sales and crimp some household spending.

-cut-

The Fed directly controls the interest rate banks charge one another for overnight loans, a benchmark known as the federal funds rate. That rate indirectly influences borrowing costs throughout the economy. The central bank uses its influence over rates to try to keep the economy growing at a sustainable pace without igniting inflation. Tighter credit dampens spending, making it harder for businesses to raise prices. Easier money does the opposite.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/28/AR2006062802203.html

[AnneD]

53. I know I sound like a broken record at time...

when I talk about the recession that Houston went through in the 80's, but I think it is such a foreshadowing of what is about to hit the national economy and the real estate market.

We had the savings and loan scandal hit, the oil market bottomed out (and we were more dependent on it than we realized) and it caused the real estate market to crash. It was really bad here-worse than the national level. You would see at least 1/4 th to 1/2 of the houses on a block up for sale and several of those were foreclosures.

As the fed's keep increasing the interest rates-those poor souls that have ARMS mortgages and 2nd mortgages in non appreciating markets are at (dare I say) certain risk for losing their homes-even if they keep their jobs.

For the Houston Real Estate history try this (the graph says it all)...
http://recenter.tamu.edu/tgrande/vol13-1/1761.html

Now, ARM's are said to be the type of loan that up to 25-30% of this country's homeowners have. This article from Arizona (a previous hot housing market) can show what is in store. These same factors and examples can be found in a growing number of places in the US....
http://www.azcentral.com/home/hb101/articles/0505mortgage0505.html

A whole bunch of people are about to be screwed again today..... I think we will start seeing an acceleration of foreclosures.

[ozymandius]

13. Paulson Plays Safe on China, Taxes, Deficit on Road to Treasury

June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Henry Paulson won Senate confirmation as U.S. Treasury secretary by playing it safe on issues from China's currency to deficits and taxes.

Paulson, sounding much like departing Treasury Secretary John Snow, was endorsed yesterday after he backed President George W. Bush's bid to make tax cuts permanent, called for a more flexible yuan and said faster growth abroad will help reduce the U.S. record current-account shortfall.

The cautious approach in testimony to the Senate Finance Committee June 27 and in responses to written questions likely was planned to avoid disrupting markets before Paulson, 60, digests all his briefing material, said Sophia Drossos, a currency strategist at Morgan Stanley.

-cut-

Paulson, outgoing chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., shied away from mentioning the dollar in any of his comments. He demurred in answers to written questions from Democrat Max Baucus, who asked if it's time for an agreement like the Plaza Accord of 1985 to shrink the current account deficit. Named for the New York hotel where the deal was struck, finance ministers from the world's largest economies agreed then to weaken the dollar.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=a2p4XNMTAQAY&refer=

[54anickel]

43. I always think back to a few months ago when there were a few articles

of the Treasury meeting with Wall Street regarding upcoming auction offerings and such. I think it was when they were bringing back the 30-year. There was the one that said something about a new paradigm that financial types understand but they needed to get "the rest of us" on board. I never could find that link or post again - it was just a short exchange between UIA and I - and that "new paradigm" was just a tiny one or two lines buried in the article.

Paulson's "specialty" is derivatives, so his appointment just makes me a wee-bit nervous. It's like they know it's on the verge of exploding. Maybe I should be comforted by the fact they brought in an expert in the field to defuse the thing, but somehow I'm not. Is here there to defuse or to simply deflect and direct the impact to us "fodder-units"?

I found this one on Paulson and Goldman Sachs from April - thought it was interesting.
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=6855910

BY ANY measure, Goldman Sachs is a formidable company. The bank knocks the spots off its competitors, whether in pure “investment banking”, the traditional craft of underwriting and mergers and acquisitions in which it made its name, or in its new focus, trading for customers and its own account. Even compared with leaders in other industries, Goldman makes spectacular returns. Among its latest record-busting yardsticks was a 40% quarterly return on equity. The average pay-packet of its 24,000 staff last year was $520,000—and that includes a lot of assistants and secretaries.

This makes the bank an easy target for populist politicians and tabloid newspapers. The real reason why Goldman should matter to outsiders is not because it is a manufacturer of millionaires (good luck to it); but because it stands at the centre of a two-decade-long transformation of the financial markets and a new approach to risk.


Business risks that were once seen as a lumpy fact of life are now routinely sliced up and packaged into combinations that generally suit issuers and investors alike. At the heart of the change has been the development of huge markets in swaps, derivatives and other complex and often opaque instruments that allow the transfer of risk from one party to another. From small beginnings in 1987, the face value of contracts in interest-rate and currency derivatives is now more than $200 trillion—16 times America's GDP. A further $17 trillion is outstanding in (even newer) credit-default swaps, which allow bond investors to lay off the risk of issuers defaulting.

Led by Goldman, investment banks have innovated at a furious pace and changed the mix of their own businesses. They have taken on more risk as they have moved from more transparent markets, in which margins are slim, to more profitable portfolios of derivatives and direct private-equity investments. The face value of Goldman's derivatives exposure is more than $1 trillion, although the bank says that its net exposure, once you offset all its positions, is $58 billion, against shareholders' funds of $28 billion. The bankers' innovations have brought huge rewards to their industry. In the past decade it has garnered revenues of more than $125 billion, more than three times the level in the previous decade.

Simply the best
This huge new risk industry has produced gains for people far away from Wall Street and the City of London. Car companies have been able to hedge away many risks that once were seen as an incurable part of the business—and thus focus on what they do best. Pension funds have been able to shape their portfolios to fit their appetite for risk. Friction is bad for economies; the risk industry reduces it to all our benefits. :eyes: Uh, yeah - say how's that Pension stuff going these days anyway?

more...

[54anickel]

49. Gotta re-post this one....America's untested management team

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/HF17Dj01.html

big snip>

Why Paulson accepted the Treasury job
It is possible that Henry Paulson sees Goldman Sachs facing an uphill battle in the next few years as the US economy slows. Paulson has made enough money in the good years and may consider it smart to leave Goldman at the peak of the market - it's no fun to run an investment bank in a down market.

Paulson is a banker. Bankers are interested in the state of the market, not the economy per se. In two and a half years, a treasury secretary can, with the full power of the Treasury behind him, have a chance of saving the market from imminent collapse from its current structural imbalances.

The formula is to accelerate the crash in order to gain a fast recovery later. The prospect of Paulson engineering a sharp correction in the equity market right after the mid-term congressional election is almost certain. The strategy is to remove the structural bottlenecks and to weed out the weaknesses and have the market resume its upward path by June 2008. This strategy is doable with a heavy dose of government intervention, but it will require a crash to create a serious enough emergency to make government intervention patriotic, possibly including massive bailouts of several troubled giants such as General Motors, General Electric and Fannie Mae (the Federal National Mortgage Association) and the big money-center banks that are up to their necks with credit-derivative exposures.

Strong dollar is the key
The key is to restore the US dollar's strong exchange rate, despite all the talk of the need for a lower dollar to reduce the trade deficit by predictable free-trade economists such as Fred Bergsten of the Institute of International Economics, whose views are distorted by their seeing trade as the entire economy rather than just one aspect of the global economy.

If China refuses to more quickly revalue the yuan against the dollar in the near term, as it most likely will, Paulson can bring up the dollar along with the yuan against the yen and the euro without adding to the US trade deficit, which is mostly with China, and oil, which is denominated in dollars. The way to strengthen the dollar is to raise the Fed Fund Rate (FFR). Paulson can be expected to apply all the pressure he can muster to force Bernanke to raise the FFR, continuing a gradual pace of 25 basis points on June 25 but more sharply immediately after the November elections to bring on a massive correction in the markets. The FFR can rise to 9% or 10% in the name of national security to save the dollar. The recession will be pre-packaged, and relatively short, from fourth-quarter 2006 to Q1 2008 with a sharp recovery in Q2 2008, providing buying opportunities for those who are smart enough to have cash on hand.

snip>

Bernanke, not yet a force with confidence, will go along because it is the Fed's duty to support national-security aims and also because a Fed chairman needs a crash to show his wizardry, as Greenspan did in 1987. Besides, no one has opposed Hank "the Hammer" and survived.

more...

[Sad4world]

14. Failed (again) administration

"Things economic are softening on their own. Rates are rising on its own, the dollar will flop on its own and gold will rise on its own. That is economic law! The Fed is a follower, not a leader.

PR, smoke and mirrors, talking heads and all their kind will FAIL. Economic law will succeed. It always does." Jim Sinclair

http://jsmineset.com/

[UpInArms]

16. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 86.77 Change +0.06 (+0.07%)

Decision Day for the Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_brief/Decision_Day_for_the_Dollar_1151577541639.html

The FX markets remained motionless overnight, all but ignoring all of the economic data from Asia andEurope as dealing desks around the world prepared for the FOMC decision at 18:15 GMT today. On the economic front German unemployment improved markedly contracting by -49K against expectations of -30K as World Cup continues to stimulate spending in Euro-zone’s largest economy. The fact that German national team has progressed to the quarterfinals is highly beneficial to EZ consumer sentiment both psychologically and economically.

While life is likely to come to a standstill in Germany on Friday as the country huddles in front of the flat screen monitors to root for its national team, in the FX market the focus remains squarely on the Fed with the market keen to know if the Fed intends to move rates to 5.50% or even possibly 5.75% level as early as August. Despite dollar bears’ predictions of imminent doom once rates crossed the 5% threshold, the US economy has remained remarkably resilient in the face of higher rates and persistently higher oil prices. However, greenback shorts may not have been wrong, just early. The US housing bubble, like all bubbles before it refuses to pop quickly as buying momentum persists beyond all reason. However, the weekly MBA data clearly shows that this key sector of the economy is experiencing serious problems. Yesterday’s data revealed that both the Market Index and Purchase Index are at new lows for the last 3 years. Another 50 basis points rate increase in the Fed funds rate is likely to drive up the cost of adjustable rate mortgages even higher, making housing less and less affordable for the majority of the US population.

For now the Fed has been able to tighten monetary policy without any detrimental effects to the US economy, but as it continues to ratchet rates higher, it raises the probability of a sharp contraction in housing which in turn would lead to a significant slowdown in the overall economy. That is why the FX market looks at the latest Fed actions with ambivalence. Traders like the ever increasing yield on USD assets but worry that these increases could trigger a US recession. This conflicting sentiment explains the lack of dollar strength versus the euro, given the unit’s substantial interest rate advantage. Nevertheless, should the Fed statement strike a hawkish note today, it may well push the EUR/USD below the 1.2500 level and possibly even towards the 1.2400 figure as momentum traders test the resolve of euro bulls. Any hint of hesitation, however, and the euro could see a rally on a classic “sell the news” dynamic.

...more...

Majors Move To Neutral Ahead Of FOMC Decision

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strategy_pieces/weekly_range/Majors_Move_To_Neutral_Ahead_1151532071790.html

EURUSD

Recent market action has completely skewed the readings of our Range-Breakout barometer for the week. Though this is perhaps troubling to those who attempt to use the raw numbers as an end-all guide to market volatility, more discretionary analysis can guide us through these aberrations. Looking at the weekly change in implied volatility spread, one might guess that the EURUSD is showing a clear range-bound signal. Given recent sideways price action and a large spike in Implied Volatility ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision, Actual volatility is a now well above Implied vols. Regardless, it seems unreasonable to claim that markets will remain range-bound through the coming days of important data releases. As a result, we think it is most accurate to say that our barometer predicts neutral market action.

<snip>

USDJPY

Volatilities differentials on the Japanese Yen breached their upper band on a sharp rise in Implied vols. By the strict parameters of our model, this suggests that the USDJPY is to remain relatively motionless in the near-term. This contradicts intuition from underlying fundamental forces, however, as the potential for BoJ Governor Fukui’s resignation threatens to derail the Yen. Likewise, any surprises in the coming days of Economic data could further shake the currency. We maintain that there exists a neutral-to-breakout bias on the USDJPY currency pair.

<snip>

USDCAD

In last week’s report, our range-trend barometer predicted a breakout in the USDCAD currency. Interestingly, a large swing higher tested very stiff resistance at the C$1.1260 level, but a sharp reversal gave clear signal that the currency pair was to stay within its two-month trading range. Price action subsequently remained subdued as traders paused to catch their breath ahead of this week’s fundamental releases. Given these influences, we saw the implied volatilities spread soar 5.5 percentage points higher to 1.4%. Though the spread now rests above its upper band, we hesitate to label this reading a clear sign of range-trading to come. As with other currencies, we must prepare for potentially large swings following tomorrow and Friday’s news releases.

...more...

[54anickel]

82. Dollar Declines After Fed Raises Rates Quarter-Point to 5.25%

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a024VIvRampk&refer=us

June 29 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell by the most in four weeks against the yen after the Federal Reserve raised the overnight lending rate between banks a quarter-percentage point and said further increases depend on the economic outlook, suggesting it may pause in its rate boosts.

The U.S. currency has dropped about 6 percent this year against the euro and 2 percent versus the yen on speculation the Fed will end its campaign of lifting borrowing costs as central banks in Europe and Japan raise rates. Economic growth is moderating and inflation expectations remain contained, the central bank said.

``An August rate hike is in question now,'' said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at Bank of America Corp. in New York. ``Reduced expectations for further rate increases brought down the dollar.''

The dollar declined to 115.40 yen at 2:39 p.m. in New York from 116.48 yesterday, for its biggest drop since June 2. It is down from a two-month high of 116.70 on June 27. The dollar weakened to $1.2638 per euro, from $1.2557 yesterday, and has fallen from a two-month high of $1.2479 on June 23.

more...


http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.91 Change -0.80 (-0.92%)

Settle Time 15:10 Open 86.71

Previous Close 86.71 High 86.85

Low 85.86 2006-06-29 15:30:09, 30 min delay

[54anickel]

85. Bad data + weak Fed = Buy gold

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/BadDataWeakFedBuyGold.aspx

As this week's housing starts report shows, you can't rely on government data. No matter how tough the Fed sounds, it's still too weak. From my point of view, the metals markets are showing the most discipline.

By Bill Fleckenstein
Last week, when the Commerce Department released its monthly housing-starts data, it said May starts grew 5% from April. But that didn't jibe with other available data. This illuminates a point I've touched on in previous columns -- the sad reality that government data are nearly useless, misleading at best and just plain wrong at worst.

Government data: Keep back 200 feet
The agency's estimate of 5% housing starts growth made no sense to me, not when 1) virtually all publicly traded homebuilders have discussed the serious weakness in their orders, and 2) the May index of homebuilder confidence -- reported by the National Association of Homebuilders -- registered the lowest reading since January 1990, June 1991 and April 1995.

It is possible that the homebuilders have essentially said: Damn the torpedoes, full-speed ahead! And then continued to start new homes, even as orders drop (which would only make matters worse). On the other hand, the homebuilders might not have adopted that approach (though there is really no way to be sure). In either case, the housing-starts data do not accurately reflect the current condition of the homebuilding business.

Were it not for the fact that government data -- distorted as they are -- matter to those who trade markets that I care about, I would ignore these statistics altogether. So, for folks who are making any decisions based on government data, be forewarned.

The Fed has talked down markets


more...

[UpInArms]

17. Tenet Healthcare settles Justice Dept probe for $900 (fraud)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-29T121547Z_01_L29607809_RTRIDST_0_HEALTH-TENET-SETTLEMENT-UPDATE-3.XML

CHICAGO, June 29 (Reuters) - Tenet Healthcare Corp. (THC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Thursday it reached a $900 million deal with the federal government to settle allegations it bilked Medicare, the U.S. health insurance program for the elderly.

The second largest U.S. hospital chain said it will pay $725 million over four years and to waive its right to pursue $175 million in Medicare payments for past services.

The deal concludes a four-year investigation by the U.S. Justice Department into accusations that Tenet deceived Medicare, the federal health insurance program for the nation's 43 million elderly and disabled, to trigger extraordinarily large reimbursement from the government.


Several analysts had predicted Tenet would pay well over $1 billion to settle the charges, which have weighed on the company's stock and operating performance since 2002, when the problems became apparent.

<snip>

Tenet said the agreement does not involve the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company continues to work with the SEC toward resolving all issues related to the adequacy of its financial disclosures regarding Medicare payments under managed care contracts, it said.

...more...

(edited to update to correct settlement amount)

[UpInArms]

18. Ford CEO rules out bankruptcy filing - WSJ

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-29T093921Z_01_L29529015_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-FORD-PAPER.XML

FRANKFURT, June 29 (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) faces stronger headwinds than it anticipated when launching a turnaround plan but has ruled out seeking court protection from creditors, its chief executive was quoted as saying in the Wall Street Journal on Thursday.

In an interview with the newspaper Bill Ford dismissed any talk of bankruptcy being a threat, saying "it's not an option".

Standard & Poor's cut its rating on Ford debt deeper into junk territory on Wednesday, lowering it one notch to single-B-plus from double-B-minus and saying "2006 would be a more difficult year for Ford than previously anticipated".

<snip>

But the consumer exodus from SUVs in favour of smaller cars was occuring at a faster pace than forecast, he said. "If that pace continues, that is tough for us."

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

19. American Greetings Q1 profit falls sharply - 42% drop

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060629/bs_nm/manufacturing_americangreetings_earns_dc

NEW YORK (Reuters) - American Greetings Corp. (NYSE:AM - news) on Thursday said quarterly profit fell 42 percent, hurt by lower sales and expenses as the company makes investments to improve its greeting card business.

Net profit for the fiscal first quarter ended May 26 was $15.4 million, or 24 cents per diluted share, compared with $26.4 million, or 35 cents per diluted share, a year ago.

The company earned 25 cents per share from operations.

Net sales for the quarter fell 7.5 percent to $406.6 million from $439.5 million a year ago.

...more...

[UpInArms]

20. General Mills 4Q profit falls 52 percent

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060629/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_general_mills

MINNEAPOLIS - General Mills Inc., maker of Cheerios, Yoplait yogurt and other food brands, said Thursday its fourth-quarter profit fell 52 percent from a year-ago quarter inflated by gains from divestitures.

General Mills said it earned $222 million, or 61 cents per share, during the quarter ended May 28, down from $460 million, or $1.14 per share, during the same period last year. Sales were $2.85 billion, up almost 5 percent from $2.72 billion a year ago.

For the full year, General Mills earned $1.09 billion, or $2.90 per share, on revenue of $11.64 billion.

<snip>

During last year's fourth quarter General Mills brought in $499 million by selling off business units.

...more...

[UpInArms]

27. Gold opens higher ahead of Fed decision (@ $585 oz)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BA3EFE401%2D7937%2D4D8E%2D895B%2D62EA3244237E%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Gold futures opened higher early Thursday against the backdrop of rising oil prices and anticipation of today's Federal Reserve decision on interest rates. Gold for August delivery was last up $4.0 at $585.0 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Other metals prices were mixed. Silver added 14 cents to $10.295 an ounce and copper rose 2.7 cents at $3.320 a pound. Platinum dropped $3.20 at $1,175.0 an ounce and palladium edged down $5.30 at $307.50 an ounce. "A larger than expected rise or more aggressive language from Chairman Bernanke in his post-rate speech still has the potential to generate plenty of froth," said James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com.

[54anickel]

48. Pendulum Swings Toward Gold (Willie)

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Willie/jun282006.html

snip>

The fundamentals might offer further reinforcement for the pendulum swing. The oil world remains transfixed by Iran, atop Iraq. The United States has backed off, used better judgment, and yielded to the United Nations. Both Russia and China have proved as powerful counter-weights to the US monolith power. Iran’s two partners offer formidable geopolitical power with their respective strengths. Without any formal treaty, Russia has promised Iran military retaliation if attacked by an external aggressor (unnamed), after having delivered state-of-the-art Sunburn missiles and worked closely on uranium enrichment programs. China has inked a few multi-billion$ energy deals with Iran, made huge capital outlays at energy production sites, not to mention the unspoken potential of lending a million men in uniform toting rifles. Russian technology combined with Chinese capital have earned quiet on the MidEastern front in a grand high jinks leverage game. It would seem the US Military is selective in choosing adversaries, where the price of quick victory is then guerrilla warfare, surely not mission accomplished. The UN was hurdled in 2003 when challenging Iraq, but now the UN is appealed to in the midst of standoff with Iran. Credit Iranian partners, since the US media seems hard-pressed not to do so. Little is heard of reluctance in the UN Security Council to slap sanctions against Iran, as the United States wishes. Russia and China sit as permanent voting members on the UN Security Council. The UN charter is to avert war, and it is doing its job. As we increasingly learn, the media reports the news after the government fabricates the news. Certain vital pillars holding up the oil price are giving way.

snip>

...

Get ready for a feeble but unsuccessful attempt to render the crude oil a “liquidation only” market, just like the powers that be did in the gold and silver market in May. Among the precious metals markets, the PTB raised margins on long futures contracts and dumped on the short side of the market, after opening the gates to massive leasing. Claims that the US financial markets are free remain humorous and absurd at worst, naïve and ill-informed at best. Much is soon to unfold. So many forks in the roads for the many stagecoaches run by key global players. The knights, bishops, castles, and queens are maneuvering on the global chessboard. It is unclear whether USGovt leaders are adept at chess, while Russian President Putin is a master chess player. US leaders seem only to be capable of viewing the MidEastern corner of the chess board, with bunker mentality. There are almost no red-white-blue chess pieces on the rest of the board, well, except pawns.

The US Federal Reserve is all set to deliver its seventeenth consecutive 25 basis point rate hike on its Fed Funds short-term target. The only language missing in their public statement is “This institution is committed to raising the interest rate until financial crises no longer appear manageable, or until they are no longer profitable to the aristocracy. We continue to deny that the USEconomy itself operates precisely like a speculative hedge fund, and resembles a bubble. We will not reveal whether we believe or utilize the nonsensically flawed economic statistics when deciding upon policy.” As the importance of monetary decisions grows, the makeup of the inexperience among USFed governors and chairman should be apparent. My conjecture is that numerous little financial crises are working like strong acid in the background structures, starting with Fanny Mae. Beware that they still look for concurrent statistical indicators to guide their decisions, despite contrary claims. They are destructively reactive, not competently proactive. The main question in my mind regarding their total lack of transparency and never to be seen financial statement, is whether their criminal acts will be hidden under the Impunity Act passed last month, whereby large influential corporations working closely with the USGovt are immune from disclosure to Securities & Exchange Commission. Is it national security they intend to protect, or the license to steal??? If not theft, could vested interest gains be the reward for partnership in national service???

Keep in mind the merger of corporate and state interests which is the centerpiece to the Mussolini Fascist Business Model. Putting politics aside, the model, which the USEconomy has followed in the last several years, promotes inefficiency, stagnation, collusion, further conglomeration, and legal cover for fraud. See unnamed corporations in the military complex and the financial sector. Europeans often lodge the accusation that the United States financial system engrains institutional dishonesty. Few seem to attribute this horrible trend to the absence of the gold money standard. No evidence is visible to me that the trend is improving. It seems to be getting worse. See the hedge fund controversy, as the FBI, SEC, and a key Wall Street brokerage house might expose two sets of rules. My contention is that a new major fraud case will be exposed on a monthly basis from the US financial sector, forever. As long as this perverse condition prevails, the migration to real money such as gold, and real assets such as crude oil, will continue and offer mammoth profit potential, but not without stumbles and seasonal turbulence.

[UpInArms]

30. Florida, U.S. foreclosure rates up

http://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/stories/2006/06/26/daily32.html

National foreclosures increased less than 2 percent from April to May 2006, but are up 28 percent from May 2005, says RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report.

Report results also show a national foreclosure rate of one filing for every 1,247 U.S. households during the month.

<snip>

Florida had the eighth highest rate, with an increase of more than 6 percent and 8,898 properties entering some state of foreclosure -- more than every state except Texas.

"The situation is particularly acute in Florida," says ForeclosureS.com President Alexis McGee. She added that foreclosure filings had increased 42.55 percent in the first quarter of 2006 over the fourth quarter of 2005.

Colorado, Georgia and Texas had the three highest foreclosure rates in May. Colorado reported 4,198 properties entering some stage of foreclosure in May, a 13 percent increase from the previous month.

...more...

[AnneD]

55. Gee,

I should have posted my Real Estate diatribe here. I think this upswing it just the floor of the foreclosure rates.

[UpInArms]

37. Topps (candy maker) net income nearly doubles - will cut jobs

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B9EE6917C%2D2575%2D4398%2D9E6D%2D8E85E0E5AFCB%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Topps Company Inc. (TOPP : 7.63, -0.03, -0.4% ) said Thursday first-quarter net income rose to $1.6 million, or 4 cents a share, from $897,000, or 2 cents a share, in the year-ago period. The baseball card maker said revenue rose to $81 million from $78.6 million. Two analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call forecast earnings of 2 cents a share. The company said it'll take a one-time charge of $1.7 million for severance and related costs in the second quarter. Topps forecast 2007 earnings of 25-30 cents a share, compared to the First Call target of 19 cents a share.

[UpInArms]

39. pre-opening blather

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.5. The stage is set for stocks to open sharply higher as futures indications continue to trade comfortably above fair value. Broad-based gains in overseas markets, many of which have gained more than 1.0%, are lending some support. Also, with Q2 coming to a close tomorrow, some end-of-the-quarter portfolio rebalancing/short covering is also contributing to early buying efforts. To wit, with the Dow, SnP 500 and Nasdaq down 1.2%, 3.8% and 9.7%, respectively in Q2, investors are now sensing stocks will regain some momentum on the other side of today's rate hike as a new quarter gets underway and earnings season beginning in earnest will take some of the focus away from economic data.

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.2. Still shaping up to be a strong open for the cash market as investors sift through a batch of economic data. The final read on Q1 GDP rose to 5.6%, matching economists' expectations. The accompanying chain deflator - a key measure on inflation - checked in lower than expected at 3.1% (consensus 3.3%). Initial claims rose 4K to 313K (consensus 310K). However, given the dated nature of the GDP data, previous claims figures coinciding with June payrolls data, and of course the FOMC decision being the focal point today, neither report has had much influence on trading so far.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.5. Futures versus fair value suggest yesterday's recovery efforts may carry over into today's open. While there is little in the way of market-moving corporate news to account for the positive bias, especially ahead of another Fed rate hike at 2:15 ET, it appears the market may have already priced in the rate increase, believing the economy and corporations are resilient enough to withstand an increase in borrowing costs going into a new quarter.

[Roland99]

41. 10:00am - Markets rocket out of the blocks

DJIA 11,042.18 +68.62 +0.63%
Nasdaq 2,132.62 +20.78 +0.98%
S&P 500 1,255.95 +9.95 +0.80%
Dow Util 411.24 +2.61 +0.64%
NYSE 8,002.58 +72.88 +0.92%
AMEX 1,866.52 +9.86 +0.53%
Russell 2000 697.95 +9.91 +1.44%
Semcond 432.38 +3.32 +0.77%
Gold future 586.20 +5.20 +0.90%
30-Year Bond 5.26% -0.02 -0.42%
10-Year Bond 5.22% -0.02 -0.40%

[UpInArms]

45. 10:59 EST Rocketing Ever Higher (updated blather)

Dow 11,073.46 +99.90 (+0.91%)
Nasdaq 2,133.63 +21.79 (+1.03%)
S&P 500 1,257.21 +11.21 (+0.90%)
10-Yr Bond 5.222 -0.23 (-0.44%)

NYSE Volume 663,079,000
Nasdaq Volume 498,277,000

11:00 am : Market extends its reach into positive territory, in sympathy with further appreciation in Energy as crude oil prices spike higher and push through $73 per barrel (+1.4%) following natural gas data. With Q2 earnings season on the horizon and Energy again expected to contribute the largest percentage to aggregate earnings growth on the SnP 500, the sector's leading year-to-date gain of 11.5% serves as a reminder of how crucial Energy sector profits are to the overall earnings picture. DJ30 +100.04 NASDAQ +21.72 SP500 +11.21 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 631/2054/496 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 587/2340/462 mln

10:30 am : Indices are holding onto the bulk of their gains as market sentiment continues to suggest investors are getting beyond assuming the worst on all fronts. Be that as it may, and today's broad-based move to the upside notwithstanding, the market is likely to go into a holding pattern until the Fed's policy announcement and could be very volatile this afternoon after investors see if the wording implies that more rate hikes will be necessary to keep inflation under control.DJ30 +70.58 NASDAQ +19.41 SP500 +9.59 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 524/2065/376 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 517/2346/332 mln

10:00 am : Equities continue to strengthen as all 10 economic sectors are trading higher. Leading the charge is Energy, as oil prices holding above $72 per barrel and an analyst upgrade on Valero Energy (VLO 65.27 +1.84) lend support. Also posting a gain of at least 1.3% is Materials, after Monsanto (MON 78.39 +1.75) beat analysts' forecasts on record Q3 sales. Renewed enthusiasm for beaten down bellwethers (e.g. MSFT +1.3%, CSCO +1.0%, INTC +0.9% DELL +1.8%) is giving the influential Tech sector an early boost while another underperforming sector -- Health Care -- is getting some assistance from a 7% surge in Tenet Health Care (THC 7.78 +0.55), which has settled a Justice Dept. probe. DJ30 +67.32 NASDAQ +19.90 SOX +0.8% SP500 +9.72 XOI +1.3% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 549/1848/220 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 471/2062/192 mln

[UpInArms]

47. U.S. stocks rally ahead of expected rate increase

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B48691F88%2D51E8%2D4E10%2D9E95%2D62BC01F43278%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - U.S. stocks rallied Thursday morning, as fund managers opted for bargains one day before the end of the second quarter, while most investors assumed the Federal Reserve will lift rates by a quarter point in the afternoon.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU : 11,083.38, +109.82, +1.0% ) was up 100 points at 11,069, with 27 of its 30 components in positive territory.

The S&P 500 ($SPX : 1,258.43, +12.43, +1.0% ) was up 11 points at 1,257 and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX : 2,136.07, +24.23, +1.1% ) up 22 points at 2,134.

Volume was weak, but breadth was strong. Some 335 million shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, where rising stocks outnumbered falling shares by 23 to 5. In the Nasdaq, about 385 million shares traded, with stocks on the rise outpacing declining shares by 4 to 1.

Recent market gloom about a likely Fed increase this afternoon gave way to a more adventurous mood late Wednesday and early Thursday, as investors made plays for shares that were left at attractively low levels during recent sell-offs.

"The market is beginning to sense that there could be a positive outcome from the Fed," said Barry Hyman, equity market strategist at EKN Financial Services.
Such scenarios could even include a half-point increase, which would allow the central bank to wrap up its rate-tightening cycle as early as today, he said.

...more...

[54anickel]

56. Americans Want Fed to Stop Raising Interest Rates, Poll Shows

:wtf: They actually poll people on rate hikes? Like the Fed gives a rat's ass what the public thinks.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFwfgXufZ_zA&refer=home

June 29 (Bloomberg) -- The American public has turned against the Federal Reserve's two-year campaign of interest-rate increases, concerned it may hurt the economy by slowing growth, a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll shows.

By a 65 percent to 22 percent margin, Americans oppose another rate increase by the central bank, which says such moves are necessary to counter inflation. The poll was conducted from June 24 to June 27, ending two days before the Fed's latest rate decision, to be announced 2:15 p.m. today in Washington.

Such sentiment won't sway Fed policy makers in the short term. They're expected by economists to raise the benchmark U.S. rate a 17th straight time to 5.25 percent, the highest since March 2001. That may slow the economy by taking more steam out of the housing market, where Americans are already contending with rising mortgage rates, some respondents said.

``Anything we could do to not put the brakes on it at this particular point would be a good thing,'' said Steven March, 35, a Web designer from Mooresville, North Carolina, and one of the 1,321 people surveyed in the poll. March said he refinanced his mortgage in February, paying a higher rate than he would have a couple of years earlier.

Previous Opposition

The Fed has faced public opposition before on interest rates. Responding to a similar question by the Los Angeles Times poll in May 2000, after five increases that brought the benchmark rate to 6 percent, Americans opposed additional credit tightening by an almost 3-to-1 margin, nearly identical to the current findings.

more...

[newportdadde]

64. Note to Americans: Don't borrow out of your ass with ARMS and

bullshit no money down home loans. Boohoo I'm having a hard time feeling sorry for all you. You reap what you sew.

[AnneD]

75. I would not...

judge these folks too harshly newport. These ARM's have been aggressively marketed and unless you ask specific questions-you may not know what you have. You can be rushed through the process and you rely on the loan officer to be upfront with you. Most folks are concerned only with the monthly payment amount and may not understand the ramifications of ARM's. Remember the old Balloon Mortgages back when interest rates were at 17-18%. Lot of folks bought into that too as the only way to get into a home. There is a lot of financial ignorance out there. Few public schools teach personal finance so if your parents don't teach you, you learn from the school of life.

And as if financial ignorance was not enough....there is a lack of affordable housing for the poor and lower middle class. Many of these folks bought more house than they could afford, but with the teaser rates on theses ARM's...it looked as if they could afford a home with a lower monthly payment. All the new homes go for up wards of 110K here in Houston and they are located in the boonies with no public transportation. Try asking a Realtor to find something in the '80's here that is decent (what Hubby and I could comfortably afford) and not 1)be laughed out of the office, 2)have the phone slammed down on you. We decided to wait for a severe adjustment in the local RE market before we bought rather than do a ARM. Hope we made a good choice.

Please don't judge these folks too harshly. They just want a piece of the American Dream and they are trying to do it on less real income than their parent had.

[ramapo]

77. Buyer beware

We bought in 1983 just after rates peaked in the high teens. We got a 10.25 adjustable and were thrilled. It had a 5% lifetime cap and a 2% max. annual adjustment. We made sure we could make the payment based on the maximum increase. It would've been tough but doable. We maxed out at 13.25% in the second year. There were balloons available at lower rates but we considered those dangerous.

We purchased one of the cheapest houses we could find that wasn't next to a river. It was a mess but we fixed it up. Today's handyman special can go for $300-$400K around here (or higher). $100K homes are a distant memory.

Bottom line is people shouldn't jump into the lake if they can't swim. Buying a home is a daunting process and I don't envy the young people of today. On the other hand, everybody wants a million dollar home and many will make bad choices to get one. There's no excuse for not understanding the ramifications of an ARM.

[AnneD]

81. Our RE prices are not that high....

(and our wages aren't high either) but we are standing on the bank waiting for a low tide. I don't want a million dollar home, just something affordable in a decent neighborhood. They are all overpriced at the moment.

Many folks are sold these loans as opposed to a fixed loan. Banks and lending companies are just as culpable in this as the consumer. They make big profits off of ARM's (until it backfires and you have too many homes in foreclosure). A good and honest loan officer will tell folks what they can afford on a fixed mortgage (keeping into account their income)and explain the pros and cons of the ARM's. This is sadly not done and the consumer gets the short end of the stick.

Most of my friends know I am a bit of a finance wonk and field a lot of general information questions. If I have friends that I know are looking to buy a home, I always talk to them and give them resources to get a good deal on their home loans (steer them from ARM's). The choice is up to them in the end. I have been fairly successful and those that listened have came back to thank me (esp when the rates go up). If more folks were financially literate....these ARM's and credit cards for that matter, would not have a strangle hold on the middle class.

[54anickel]

57. 12:41 numbers and yada

Dow 11,048.56 +75.00 (+0.68%)
Nasdaq 2,128.03 +16.19 (+0.77%)
S&P 500 1,254.86 +8.86 (+0.71%)
10-yr Bond 52.14 -0.31 (-0.59%)
30-yr Bond 52.48 -0.31 (-0.59%)
NYSE Volume 1,117,689,000
Nasdaq Volume 834,812,000


12:30 pm : No change to the prevailing trend as the afternoon session gets underway. While stocks appear to be settling into a holding pattern ahead of the Fed, Treasuries continue to inch higher. Bonds, like stocks, have also assumed the worst and fully priced in another 1/4% Fed rate hike. To wit, the yield on the 10-yr note touched 5.25% yesterday, matching its highest level since May 2002 and the projected fed funds rate of 5.25%, suggesting that two year's of Fed tightening will lead to slower economic growth and inflation. The 10-yr note is now up 8 ticks, dropping the yield to 5.20% while at the back end of the yield curve, which is the most inflation-sensitive, the 30-yr note is up 16 ticks to yield 5.24%, also back below 5.25%. DJ30 +83.41 NASDAQ +17.33 SP500 +9.66 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 835/2005/794 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 761/2315/746 mln

12:00 pm : Indices are off their best levels of the day but are still trading sharply higher as strong sector leadership, supported by renewed optimism that the inflation and economic trends are not as bad as feared, suggests a bottom has been put in place and that today's widely expected 1/4% Fed rate hike to 5.25% has already been priced into a market which is on pace for its worst quarterly performance since September 2002. As of yesterday's close, the Dow, SnP 500 and Nasdaq were down 1.2%, 3.8% and 9.7%, respectively in Q2.

Money managers making some last-minute adjustments to their portfolios as Q2 comes to a close tomorrow is also helping to divert some attention away from what the Fed may or may not say in its policy directive at 2:15 ET and toward the upcoming earnings season. To wit, Energy providing the bulk of early leadership (+1.8%) is acting as a reminder of how crucial sector profits are to the overall earnings picture, since Energy is again expected to contribute the largest percentage to aggregate earnings growth on the SnP 500.

Of the other nine sectors trading higher, renewed enthusiasm for beaten down bellwethers (e.g. MSFT +1.3%, INTC +1.1% DELL +1.3%) is giving Technology a noticeable boost while relief across the yield curve is helping the influential Financials sector offer some important leadership. DJ30 +83.09 NASDAQ +17.38 SP500 +9.17 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 769/2051/724 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 689/2353/676 mln

[54anickel]

60. Bwahahaha "Fertilizers and chemicals" lead the way at 1:33

Dow 11,056.65 +83.09 (+0.76%)
Nasdaq 2,127.39 +15.55 (+0.74%)
S&P 500 1,254.96 +8.96 (+0.72%)
10-yr Bond 52.16 -0.29 (-0.55%)
30-yr Bond 52.49 -0.30 (-0.57%)
NYSE Volume 1,294,426,000
Nasdaq Volume 966,742,000

1:05 pm : Stocks are slowly consolidating some of their morning gains but the bulk of industry leadership remains positive. Fertilizers and Chemicals (+4.6%) remains the best performing SnP industry group following Monsanto's (MON 80.19 +3.55) strong Q3 report while oil prices hitting session highs (+1.7%) continue to underpin strong leadership from Refiners, Explorers and Drillers. More noteworthy, though, are the handful of underperforming areas that attracting bargain hunters. Consumer Electronics has been the worst performer in Q2 (-27.6%), but is turning in a top ten performance today (+2.2%). Home Entertainment Software ranks as the quarter's fourth poorest performer (-23.3%) but today is turning in the fifth best performance. DJ30 +67.65 NASDAQ +12.50 SP500 +7.41 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 904/1967/878 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 800/2292/818 mln

[AnneD]

76. The jokes just write themselves...

:rofl: all that darkness, plenty of fertilizer and next thing you know....every things coming up mushrooms.

[stop the bleeding]

61. Anyone think that the FED will do a 1/2% increase today?

just wondering ;)

[54anickel]

62. There's been that speculation, but I don't think Chopper has the balls.

[stop the bleeding]

63. I guess we are resigned to waiting on the language for the August

I wonder how crazy things will get here in a minute

[stop the bleeding]

65. the DJIA just shot up - I guess the language for August is good? n/t

[UpInArms]

67. 2:22 EST Markets are in Ecstacy!

Dow 11,133.49 +159.93 (+1.46%)
Nasdaq 2,148.15 +36.31 (+1.72%)
S&P 500 1,264.56 +18.56 (+1.49%)
10-Yr Bond 5.218 -0.27 (-0.51%)

NYSE Volume 1,547,480,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,182,814,000

2:15 pm : As expected, the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, marking the 17th consecutive 1/4% rate hike. With respect to the accompanying policy directive, the Fed has asserted that economic growth is moderating from its quite strong pace earlier this year but that additional firming may be needed to address inflation risks and that the extent and timing of more tightening will depend on incoming data. Initial responses in both the stock and bond markets are positive, but volatile market action throughout the rest of the session can be expected.DJ30 +128.78 NASDAQ +27.58 SP500 +14.68 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 955/1980/1.06 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 863/2292/1.0 bln

2:00 pm : In the 15 minutes ahead of the FOMC announcement, stocks remain in a holding pattern but are still posting gains across the board. Of the few areas failing to participate in today's relief efforts, however, Auto Retail (-3.4%) is pacing the way lower after Advance Auto Parts (AAP 29.60 -6.30) warned that high gas prices and rising interest rates are slowing Q2 same-store sales growth. Railroads (-3.4%) have been another weak area today as severe flooding in the Mid-Atlantic shuts down rail service in select areas. DJ30 +77.18 NASDAQ +15.00 SP500 +8.60 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 956/1959/1.02 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 860/2276/954 mln

I'm outa here!

See you all on Monday!

:hi:

[stop the bleeding]

68. Have a good weekend

and it looks like the FED will keep us on the edge of our seats until August

[Roland99]

69. Wonder if talk of a .5% increase led the markets to take kindly to .25%?

[Zynx]

74. Idealy, they would have done .5% and said, "That's all folks!"

[AnneD]

78. It's the....

boiled frog analogy. If you put the frog in boiling water-he hops out. Put him in cool water on the burner and the increase in temp is so slow as to go unnoticed until it is too late.
Poached frog legs anyone?

[Ghost Dog]

72. Fed lifts US rates further quarter point

By Financial Times reporters

The Federal Reserve on Thursday raised US interest rates for the 17th successive time by a quarter point to 5.25 per cent and signalled a bias towards raising rates further in the future.

But while the tone of its statement was quite hawkish, it fell short of suggesting a cast iron commitment to raise rates again at the next policy meeting in August.

The statement reinforced the Fed’s view that “economic growth is moderating” but went on to say that recent core inflation readings were “elevated” and high levels of capacity utilisation and energy prices “have the potential to sustain inflation pressures.”

It said that while “moderation in the growth of aggregate demand should help to limit inflation pressures over time, the committee judges that some inflation risks remain.” It concluded by saying that the committee would pay attention to the outlook for both growth and inflation when evaluating its next steps.

Initial reaction on Wall Street was overwhelmingly positive, with the main stock indices gaining about 1 per cent within 15 minutes of the announcement. The dollar weakened by a cent against the euro as traders interpreted the statement as implying lower interest rates in future than had previously been expected. US Treasuries rose sharply, extending earlier gains, and yields fell.

In its statement , the Fed points to concern on inflationary pressures against a backdrop of rising energy and other commodity costs, but says that the timing and extent of any further tightening would depend on growth and inflation data and outlook.

“The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information. In any event, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to support the attainment of its objectives,” the statement said.

/more...

[stop the bleeding]

79. clink clink

I had to put the Puts away today and bust out the Calls and woweee!!!

Is everyone breaking out the champagne and ponies while rolling around in their gobbs of $$$?

[54anickel]

80. 3:40 and look at 'em go

Dow 11,181.36 +207.80 (+1.89%)
Nasdaq 2,169.39 +57.55 (+2.73%)
S&P 500 1,271.16 +25.16 (+2.02%)
10-yr Bond 52.00 -0.45 (-0.86%)
30-yr Bond 52.51 -0.28 (-0.53%)
NYSE Volume 2,294,774,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,893,736,000

3:30 pm : Buying remains the name of the game going into the close as the Dow is now up more than 200 points and the Nasdaq has more than halved its 4.2% year-to-date decline with an impressive 2.8% advance so far. The Russell 2000 Index is faring even better with a 3.5% surge. Further underscoring renewed bullishness for stocks has been a 16% drubbing on the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) to its lowest level since mid-May when the market began its correction. Known as the "investor fear gauge," the spike lower suggests investors are actively buying call options in anticipation that a short-term bottom has been put in place that will keep investors on the buying track.DJ30 +205.95 NASDAQ +57.41 SP500 +25.22 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 709/2326/1.79 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 579/2669/1.55 bln

3:00 pm : Stocks are still trading at session highs as investors continue to rally around the prospects of a potential pause after two years of Fed tightening. Energy and Materials continue to pace the way higher on a percentage basis, with respective gains of 2.5% and 3.1%. However, the rate-sensitive Financials sector now turning in an impressive 2.1% and accounting for 21% of the total weighting on the SnP 500, compared to a combined weighting of 12.9% for Energy and Materials, is providing the bulk of market support. The yield on the 10-yr note (+11/32) has slipped to 5.19% as today's policy statement removes the idea of automatic hikes. Yesterday, fed funds futures were pricing in an 84% chance of another hike in August but are now pricing in only a 65% likelihood. DJ30 +183.62 NASDAQ +50.17 SP500 +22.92 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 821/2158/1.54 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 690/2520/1.35 bln

[Buttercup McToots]

83. What a pretty sight

Holy Moly...look at her go...

[JNelson6563]

84. I see the wealthy are very happy

The oligarchs seem to be rather jubilant over the Fed rate news.

Will there be free ponies for non-billionaires too? ;-)

[54anickel]

86. Rate Change Explanations Confuse Markets

Poor Ben, he really needs to learn how to speak Greenspanese. Guess the markets just don't understand why Ben would suddenly want to rely on data for rate decisions. Does he think fundementals suddenly matter again or something? Not that the gov't data (lies) are worth looking at these days. :eyes: Geez Ben, get with the program - it's all momentum trading, no one looks to "fun-da-mentals". :evilgrin: :sarcasm:

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=2132323

WASHINGTON Jun 29, 2006 (AP)— The Federal Reserve has been remarkably consistent over the past two years in its actions on interest rates, but many analysts believe it has grown erratic in its ability to explain those actions.

Many are putting the blame on new Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who has sent markets on a rollercoaster ride in recent weeks with what appeared to be conflicting statements over the future course of rates.

snip>

Economists said Bernanke, in an effort to be more open about the Fed's thinking, is actually increasing confusion.

"He's talking way too much and he says one thing one day and then says something entirely different the next day," said Martin Regalia, chief economist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and a former Fed economist. "This is not increasing transparency. It is increasing confusion."

Some economists said it is unfair to make Bernanke take all of the blame. Part of the problem, they contend, is that after 18 years of learning to decipher Greenspan's almost impenetrable prose, markets are having trouble getting used to Bernanke's more straightforward speaking style.

more...

[nolabels]

87. They are out slight of hands so confusion is the only answer left

The rule of the dollars is slipping with it no longer being the hub which all others pass. Raising rates is not a answer when there is nothing to invest in. The fed is stuck with the albatross of the immense US national debt and a user unfriendly US government.

[Clarkie1]

88. Hope everyone took advantage of the great buying opportunity

the past couple of weeks. Look for the S&P to reach at least the mid-1300s by years end. :-)

[54anickel]

89. Wouldn't be too sure about that year end prognosis....

S&P Resistance at 1260 and 1290 and look at the future chart right after the bell. See if it can hold above 1260 first, though it is well above support for the week. We'll see...my crystal ball went on the fritz years ago. ;-)

[TheWatcher]

90. Yes, All Aboard For The Phantom Economy

Run on Spin, Manipulation, and Lies.

I'm sure we'll all be rich within weeks, then we won't need silly things like jobs. We can all just sit around the house with Ameritrade Accounts and buy Index Futures all day.

:eyes:

[Clarkie1]

93. Uh...I'm not saying THAT.

Just that I'm reasonably bullish for the rest of the year. Historically speaking P/E ratios are very reasonable, interest rates relatively low, inflation is not a problem. So, it's reasonable to be reasonably bullish given the reasonable price of stocks at this time, I think.

[stop the bleeding]

91. I am still sticking with my Bearish outlook for at least until

September to November time frame, but I don't effing care which way the market goes as long as there is a market and as long as it goes up or down then I will be able to make money trading options.

Good luck everyone hopefully the market will end the year on an up note it would be a whole lot easier on people, but if it doesn't well there is always next year.

Happy trading:beer:

[Clarkie1]

94. Well, I don't do options and never will so all I can say to ya is

GOOD LUCK

[stop the bleeding]

96. they aren't any different than trading pigs, oil, stocks or orange juice

I don't buy or sell options in the traditional sense that they were created for. If you trade anything then you otta take a look at them cause they cost a fraction of what the stock cost, but gain or lose value just like the stock does, so you don't have as much $$$ at risk and the returns are pretty quick with most of mine averaging between 13-17% all above 10% some up to 70-80%. Most people stay away from options because they don't understand them and I don't blame them, but once I did - well lets just say I won't buy stock anymore to much $$$ at risk.

Remember knowledge is power ;)

Good luck

[stop the bleeding]

92. Could someone post the blather?

thank you in advance :)

[54anickel]

95. Back by popular request - the Blatherers

4:20 pm : Stocks soared Thursday as investors rallied around the idea that the Fed may finally take a breather after two years of interest rate increases.

As expected, the Fed raised rates another 1/4% to 5.25%, representing the seventeenth consecutive rate hike since its first bump in June 2004. While higher rates obviously aren't good news for stocks and the language of the policy statement was essentially the same, the Fed reiterating that "inflation expectations remained contained" and saying that "the moderation in the growth of aggregate demand should help to limit inflation pressures over time" helped assuage concerns related to the hawkish Fed commentary that had acted as an overhang since the May 10 meeting.

Before the opening bell even sounded, the market tone was already decidedly bullish, suggesting that today's widely expected 1/4% rate hike had been priced into a market which was on pace for its worst quarterly performance since September 2002. As of Wednesday's close, the Dow, SnP 500 and Nasdaq were down 1.2%, 3.8% and 9.7%, respectively in Q2. By the end of trading Thursday, the Dow finished the quarter up slightly while an impressive 3.0% surge on the Nasdaq wiped out most of its 4.2% year-to-date decline.

Further underscoring renewed bullishness was an 18% drubbing on the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index), dropping it to its lowest level since mid-May when the market began its correction. Known as the "investor fear gauge," the spike lower suggested investors were actively buying call options in anticipation that a short-term bottom had been put in place that will keep investors on the buying track. Complacency is coming back into vogue ;-)

Money managers making some last-minute adjustments to their portfolios as Q2 comes to a close tomorrow also helped divert some attention away from what the Fed would or would not say in its policy directive and helped the market to begin thinking about the upcoming earnings season. To wit, the Materials and Energy sectors, which are again expected to contribute the largest percentage to aggregate earnings growth on the SnP 500, turned in the best performances. Both sectors got an additional boost, of course, as the greenback plunging by the most in two months after the Fed implied a potential pause made dollar-denominated commodities like gold and oil more attractive.

Providing even more influential leadership, however, was the rate-sensitive Financials sector, which turned in an impressive 2.2% advance as strength in Treasuries, buoyed by tame word alterations to the Fed directive that gave bond traders hope that the end is near, sent rates lower across the yield curve. The yield on the 10-yr note (+10/32) fell to 5.20%. Among all of the economic sectors posting a gain of at least 1.0%, Technology was another influential area attracting bargain hunters. Renewed enthusiasm for beaten down bellwethers (e.g. MSFT +1.3%, CSCO +3.2%, INTC +3.4% DELL +3.4%, TXN +3.6%) gave the sector a noticeable boost. BTK +3.7% DJ30 +217.24 DJTA +3.4% DJUA +1.0% DOT +2.8% NASDAQ +62.64 NQ100 +3.1% R2K +3.8% SOX +4.0% SP400 +3.8% SP500 +26.87 XOI +2.4% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 619/2428/2.22 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 508/2758/1.88 bln

3:30 pm : Buying remains the name of the game going into the close as the Dow is now up more than 200 points and the Nasdaq has more than halved its 4.2% year-to-date decline with an impressive 2.8% advance so far. The Russell 2000 Index is faring even better with a 3.5% surge. Further underscoring renewed bullishness for stocks has been a 16% drubbing on the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) to its lowest level since mid-May when the market began its correction. Known as the "investor fear gauge," the spike lower suggests investors are actively buying call options in anticipation that a short-term bottom has been put in place that will keep investors on the buying track.DJ30 +205.95 NASDAQ +57.41 SP500 +25.22 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 709/2326/1.79 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 579/2669/1.55 bln