Zogby: Rudy beats Hillary by 7%, loses to Obama by 6%

[Alhena]

A truly striking poll. It also shows Obama making great gains on Hillary for the nomination.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1252

Giuliani 47%, Clinton 40%
Giuliani 40%, Obama 46%
Giuliani 46%, Edwards 40%

[Pirate Smile]

1. It was a telephone survey. My first thought was it was probably one of the

e-mail surveys so would be more tilted toward the on-line community which seems to be less favorably inclined toward Hillary but nope, it was a phone survey.

Hillary Holds On; Giuliani Expands Lead in National Primary Tests

Obama advances, but McCain fades in partisan contests; Obama, Giuliani do best in general election match-ups

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton clings to a shrinking lead over Illinois Senator Barack Obama in a national test of Democratic primary voter preference, while Republican Rudy Giuliani is expanding his edge over John McCain, the maverick senator from Arizona, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows.

The survey was the first since last week’s very public spat between the Clinton and Obama campaigns over Hollywood fund–raising and the conduct of the first Clinton administration.

The telephone survey, which asked Democrats, Republicans, and non–aligned voters in which primary or caucus they planned to vote next year, was conducted Feb. 22–24, 2007, and included 1,078 likely voters (397 Republicans - MOE: +/- 5.0 percentage points, 439 Democrats - MOE: +/- 4.8 percentage points). The survey's overall margin of error was +/- 3.0 percentage points.

Among those who said they would vote in the Democratic primary or caucus for President, Clinton leads with 33% support, up 4% from our last telephone survey in early January. However, Obama has made dramatic gains in the last six weeks, moving from 14% support to 25% backing. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edward is a distant third, winning 12% support. One in five said they were undecided about which Democratic candidate to support.

[MannyGoldstein]

2. Zogby is a Republican Who Hates Powerful Women

Isn't it obvious?

[phantom power]

3. But he likes Edwards and powerful blacks?

[MannyGoldstein]

4. Stop Making Sense

It's unbecoming.

[phantom power]

5. You may be the first person ever to accuse me of making *too* much sense.

:evilgrin:

[BigDDem]

6. and they're still calling McCain

a "maverick senator?"

[theaudacity]

7. I am doing my happy dance. Not only could Obama win the nomination, he is a viable candidate?

:hug:

[DeepModem Mom]

8. K&R

[WorldResident]

9. Zogby is the most unreliable poster out there

And it's not really a bias against one side or another, he's just that bad.

Most polls have Obama, Clinton, and Edwards polling very equally against Giuliani or McCain, with a slight advantage to Edwards, then Clinton, then Obama.

[R_M]

10. Name recognition.

[prolesunited]

11. Obama

has more name recognition than Hillary or Guiliani?

[R_M]

15. He's getting more coverage.

[youngdem]

24. Name recognition? How?

Hillary Clinton is still vastly better known than Obama. Obama may have more buzz, but Hillary is almost universally known.

[ProudDad]

37. "Hillary is almost universally known"

That's her problem... :shrug:

[Psephos]

12. Jeezus, we've got two more years of this b.s. :-( n/t

[ohio2007]

23. yep, the world is a soap opera gossip column. nt

[tchunter]

13. has there been a recent quinnipiac poll?

thats where i go to school and they do extensive surveying, i may be biased but i believe their sampling and results are usually pretty sound

[geek tragedy]

14. Latest Q poll showed similar results--

Clinton steady, Obama rising, Edwards sinking.

[whopis01]

17. Yeah... we need the latest polls

so we will know who to vote for

[Javaman]

16. And the election is still 20 months away nt

[TexasLawyer]

18. Giuliani?

That schlump? Doing so well in the polls? What am I missing?

[VegasWolf]

30. Who knows? My guess is that nobody can see a gnat's whisker of difference between the two. nt

[theaudacity]

19. I think Obama wins the primary because he is already holding a huge share of support while being...

the most unknown major candidate in the field. You just watch those numbers go up.

Oh, and also because he doesn't have a record for people to beat him over the head with. And the ladies like him. And he speaks like President Bartlett. And...

[BenDavid]

20. Is it not strange that two

weeks ago in polls taken that HRC was beating both Prissy Rudy and Flip Flop McCain, but the media does not report this but waits until a poll is favorable for the Prissy One.
I know it's a long way to go and I am not concerned because HRC remains the front runner, and has of yet to get in full campaign mode. That little flare up last week with the Obama camp was a shot across his bow to let them know this ain't baking cookies. HRC won that round....but you all wait till after she wins and becomes the nominee and you will see WJC redux, and HRC is playing it right....if ya gonna be a bear then be a damn grizzley: and that she is and will be because she will fight back unlike Gore and Kerry....Folks we have us a winner and leader in HRC....

[PSPS]

21. A poll 21 months ahead of an election is worthless

Personally, I think each party's candidate will end up being someone who hasn't even declared yet.

[w4rma]

25. I agree with both of your statements. Especially the second. (nt)

[ohio2007]

22. How did Clinton vs Obama work out

We all know it's not going to be a three way race.

[hedgehog]

26. I have been wrong about politics many times, even spectacularly wrong.,

For example, I remember the Watergate break-in and I knew it went right up to Tricky Dick But I thought that everyone knew that and that it made McGovern a shoe-in.


BUT

Can anyone really believe that Guliani will be a candidate once the voting begins?

[antiimperialist]

27. Zogby is not biased, but his polls are mediocre

There is no evidence of Zogby being partisan or biased. He's been erratic the past few elections, though, and I do not trust his polls.

[Rydz777]

28. Carol Mosely Braun

If Zogby polls were accurate, Carol Mosely Bruan would still be Senator from illinois. He had her ahead just before election day.

[VegasWolf]

29. Not surprising, Hillary has such a negative and polarizing effect on people. Everyone

I talk with seems to hate her.

[MGKrebs]

32. And they're not even sure why.

[mainer]

31. I think his polls skew toward liberal Democrats

His polls in the past always had the Democratic candidate a few percentage points higher than other polls did. I wonder if this is a reflection of Democrats' uncertainty about Hillary.

[David Zephyr]

33. It's baffling how so many Dems ignore poll after poll regarding Hillary's unfavorables at our peril.

Almost every single poll regarding HRC has been consistent. We must face the obvious and deal with it: she has high unfavorables with Americans.

Hillary would make a good VP on any ticket, but she will drag the Democrats down to still another loss.

This poll only underscores the hundreds of others that consistently show she can not win in '08. Is every single scientific poll "biased"?

We'd better take our heads out of the sand.

Do we really want to lose yet again?

[MGKrebs]

35. If her unfavorables are still this high next February

I will agree with you.

[DemCam]

36. Very good point indeed.

[dysfunctional press]

34. the point is- this is NOT hillary's election. her "time" may NEVER come...

she should concentrate on being a powerful senator- Byrd, Kennedy, Kerry, etc...can't last forever.