U.S. Concedes Uncertainty on North Korean Uranium Effort

[cal04]

Last October, the North Koreans tested their first nuclear device, the fruition of decades of work to make a weapon out of plutonium.

For nearly five years, though, the Bush administration, based on intelligence estimates, has accused North Korea of also pursuing a secret, parallel path to a bomb, using enriched uranium. That accusation, first leveled in the fall of 2002, resulted in the rupture of an already tense relationship: The United States cut off oil supplies, and the North Koreans responded by throwing out international inspectors, building up their plutonium arsenal and, ultimately, producing that first plutonium bomb.

But now, American intelligence officials are publicly softening their position, admitting to doubts about how much progress the uranium enrichment program has actually made. The result has been new questions about the Bush administration’s decision to confront North Korea in 2002.

“The question now is whether we would be in the position of having to get the North Koreans to give up a sizeable arsenal if this had been handled differently,” a senior administration official said this week.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/01/washington/01korea.html?hp=&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1172719183-gE12r3NLUpM8ZRgVJY4kHg

[rodeodance]

1. in the next paragraph, they talk of 'flawed intelligence" (Iraq)----but it was

not so much flawed (CIA fault)-----as how it was used and abused!

......The disclosure underscores broader questions about the ability of intelligence agencies to discern the precise status of foreign weapons programs. The original assessment about North Korea came during the same period that the administration was building its case about Iraq’s unconventional weapons programs, which turned out to be based on flawed intelligence. And the new North Korea assessment comes amid debate over intelligence about Iran’s weapons.

[cal04]

2. Doubt Is Cast on N. Korean Program

U.S. Backs Off Uranium Claims

The Bush administration is backing away from its long-held assertions that North Korea has an active clandestine program to enrich uranium, leading some experts to believe that the original U.S. intelligence that started the crisis over Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions may have been flawed.

The chief intelligence officer for North Korea, Joseph R. DeTrani, told Congress on Tuesday that while there is "high confidence" North Korea acquired materials that could be used in a "production-scale" uranium program, there is only "mid-confidence" such a program exists. Meanwhile, Assistant Secretary of State Christopher R. Hill, the chief negotiator for disarmament talks, last week told a conference in Washington that it is unclear if North Korea ever mastered the production techniques necessary for such a program.

If the materials North Korea bought "did not go into a highly enriched uranium program, maybe they went somewhere else," Hill said. "Fine. We can have a discussion about where they are and where they've gone."

The administration's stance today stands in sharp contrast to the certainty expressed by top officials in 2002, when the administration accused Pyongyang of running a secret uranium program -- and demanded it be dismantled at once. President Bush told a news conference that November: "We discovered that contrary to an agreement they had with the United States, they're enriching uranium, with a desire of developing a weapon."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/28/AR2007022801977.html

[maddezmom]

3. I guess that's why the US was willing to back down

No wonder the N. Koreans want to talk in NY.

March 1 (Bloomberg) -- Talks between the U.S. and North Korea next week will start a process aimed at normalizing relations between the countries, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said.

``We will begin the process of addressing our bilateral ties, with the intention of eventual normalization,'' Hill told the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee yesterday. ``I want to emphasize the words `to begin' because we have a lot of bilateral issues we need to talk about.''

The March 5-6 meeting follows up on an agreement the U.S., China, South Korea, Japan and Russia negotiated with North Korea on Feb. 13 that requires the country to scrap its plutonium- based nuclear weapons program in return for energy aid.

Discussions will include the U.S. ending its listing of North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism and human rights. The meeting marks a shift in U.S. relations with the communist country that President George W. Bush once called part of an ``axis of evil.''

more: http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a__OsEkNSvF0

[Eugene]

4. AFP: US to keep pressing NKorea on uranium

US to keep pressing NKorea on uranium

by Harumi Ozawa

Fri Mar 2, 9:24 AM ET

TOKYO (AFP) - Senior US diplomat John Negroponte said Friday that Washington would still
press North Korea over uranium enrichment despite toning down its allegations that Pyongyang
was running a secret programme.

The United States made the explosive allegations in 2002 that North Korea was running a covert
uranium programme in addition to its declared plutonium operations, triggering the collapse
of a 1994 disarmament deal.

"I think that the judgement as I understand of the intelligence community is that they are very
confident that North Korea has had an enrichment programme in the past and they are moderately
confident that this programme still continues," said Negroponte, the deputy secretary of state,
on a visit to Tokyo.

After exhaustive negotiations, the United States and North Korea signed a new six-nation deal
last month under which Pyongyang will shut a key nuclear reactor in exchange for fuel aid.

-snip-

Full article: http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070302/wl_asia_afp/nkoreanuclearweapons_070302141751

Damn the uncertainty, full speed ahead!