Segolene Royal Rejects Calls for Alliance With Bayrou

[muriel_volestrangler]

Source: Bloomberg

French Socialist party presidential candidate Segolene Royal rejected calls to forge an alliance with centrist Francois Bayrou before the first round of elections to beat frontrunner Nicolas Sarkozy.

Michel Rocard, a former Socialist prime minister, first called for such an accord two days ago in a letter to Le Monde. In another letter published today in Le Journal du Dimanche, former Socialist health minister Bernard Kouchner said the left ``must not refuse an alliance with a renewed center,'' even if it would have to come after the first round of elections.
...
Royal has cut Sarkozy's lead in the presidential race by 3 percentage points over the past week, according to the newspaper. In the first round, scheduled for April 22, support for Sarkozy, the governing party's candidate, fell 1 percentage point to 28.5 percent, while that for Royal rose 2 points to 24 percent, said Le Journal du Dimanche, citing an Ifop survey.

Bayrou, a self-proclaimed centrist who ran virtually even with Royal in polls last month, would garner 18 percent, down 1 point from the previous week, the newspaper said. Jean-Marie Le Pen, the leader of the anti-immigration National Front, also dropped 1 point to 13 percent, the newspaper added.

Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aPrOFwbWwmw4&refer=europe

---

It makes sense not to try anything strange now - the "best 2 runoff" means that, as long as the disgusting Le Pen is safely in 4th, you don't need alliances to make sure he gets kicked out. But assuming Royal makes it to the last 2 with Sarkozy, there's a problem ahead:

Run-Off Scenarios

Sarkozy v. Royal Apr. 13 Apr. 12 Apr. 10

Nicolas Sarkozy   53.5%   54%     53.5%

Ségolène Royal    46.5%   46%     46.5%

Sarkozy v. Bayrou Apr. 13 Apr. 12 Apr. 10

François Bayrou     53%     53%    53.5%

Nicolas Sarkozy     47%     47%    46.5%


http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/15399

The centrist Bayrou would beat the right wing Sarkozy in a run-off, while Royal would lose to him. Not surprising, but it seems to show Royal should do something to make her a bit more attractive to a few centrists (hah, I'll get flamed for that remark here ... :scared:)

[burythehatchet]

1. I am on segolene's mailing list :swoon:

[annabanana]

2. I have NO idea how to gauge France's parties

and factions... I expect that I am a socialist of sorts at heart... (or what might pass for one here) So..

Vive Royal!

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. To complicate things: Secret report 'tips Le Pen for run-off'

According to the left-leaning Nouvel Observateur magazine, a secret survey of 15,000 people, known as 'Operation Mercury', by the French domestic intelligence service shows that Socialist candidate Segolene Royal is likely to be eliminated along with the centrist Francois Bayrou, leaving hardline former Interior Minister Nicholas Sarkozy in line to be elected in a second round run-off against Le Pen.

Sarkozy has focused his campaign on immigration, security and national identity, issues that traditionally belong to the far-right National Front, in a bid to draw support from Le Pen in the first round.

Pollsters did not dismiss the imagined scenario. 'Le Pen's support is notoriously difficult to judge and he surprised us all last time,' said one veteran public opinion expert. Most polls put Le Pen fourth among the 12 candidates for the first round, with support at 14-15 per cent. However this is higher than at the same time in 2002 and it may be underestimated.

The intelligence service has dismissed the story as 'unfounded', saying it is legally prohibited from such work. But observers point to a long tradition of revealing 'secret' polls by 'intelligence services' in the run-up to French elections.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,2057407,00.html

I don't know if the report is real, or if it's propaganda - in which case, I can't work out what it would be trying to achieve. Make Royal and Bayrou form a pact now, to increase their chances of beating Le Pen? Encourage potential far right supporters that Le Pen can get to the second round so that they will bother voting? If Le Pen did get to the second round, Sarkozy would win for sure, just as Chirac did last time.

[tocqueville]

5. it's obvious disinfo

le Nouvel OBS is a very left-leaning magazine. The information cannot be independently verified since political polling by the equivalent of homeland security is forbidden in law, so they can only deny.

The plot is obvious : scare the people that would want to vote either Sarkozy or Bayrou to vote Sego, so that she gets to the 2nd runoff. That is the consensus from most of French journalists today about that story. It's despicable when the "socialists" use tricks in the best Rovian style.

[tocqueville]

4. Sego has NO chances in beating Sarkozy

and Le Pen would never become president either, in any possible combination of the 4 front runners. The worst that could happen is a 2nd runoff Sarkozy-Le Pen where Sarkozy would of course win with a big majority (like Chirac did in 2002) and "voilà" France has its own Berlusconi, neocon leaning.

The problem isn't that Sego should become "more attractive" to a few centrists (the woman is the Katherine Harris of the French left, a media product and a total miscalculation from the socialist party militants), it's rather that some socialists should go over to Bayrou this week. Two of them have already done a step in that direction, specially Bernard Kouchner who is extremely popular in France and the former brilliant UN administrator of the ruined Kosovo after the war. Many socialists want now that DSK (Dominique Strauss-Kahn) breaks with Ségolene before the probable implosion of the French socialist party. This implosion will happen either the 22nd of April if Sego doesn't go to the second round (50% of chances according to internal socialist surveys) or the 6th of May when in the eventuality of a runoff Sego-Sarko, Sarko wins big which is probable because Sego can mobilize only a maximum of 40% of leftist voices and the centrists won't vote for her and abstain. In such an eventuality France has to choose between a Berlusconi and a selfish bitch whose policies would be catastrophic and only reinforce indirectly the far-right. Her record in her region is appalling.

Bayrou is a center-left man, quite in the same register than Romano Prodi or than a more lefty Angela Merkel. He is very much alike some nordic socialdemocratic leaders, even if he doesn't belong to the same political family.

With him, Kouchner and Strauss-Kahn, France would get a social-responsible leadership, but at the same time open to boost the French market, specially the one of the small and middle enterprise. We would get a 6th Constitution, go more towards a more parliamentary model and proportional voting.

I am voting for Bayrou, a man that said that he was American, he'll vote for Al Gore and wants to create a big DEMOCRAT party in France, inspired from the American model that is to say social welfare + enterprise-minded.

Need I say more ?

OK I'll take the flame from the segolistas...

[Alexander]

6. What don't you like about Segolene Royal?

While it does seem Bayrou has a better chance of beating Sarkozy, I am curious what else Royal has done which bothers you. You mentioned her being a media creation and so on, and I'd like to know more about that.

I have only been paying casual attention to the French election and so far my opinion of Segolene Royal has been generally positive, although since I don't know much about what's going on over there, I'd like to hear your opinion.