STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday June 20

[ozymandius]

Source: DU

Wednesday June 20, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 581 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2357 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2069 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2030
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 19, 2007

Dow... 13,635.42 +22.44 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq... 2,626.76 +0.16 (+0.01%)
S&P 500... 1,533.70 +2.65 (+0.17%)
Gold future... 664.70 +4.80 (+0.72%)
30-Year Bond 5.20% -0.05 (-1.03%)
10-Yr Bond... 5.09% -0.06 (-1.09%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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Read more: DU

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Market WrapUp

The Top Ten Signals That Global Stock Markets Have Topped
BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT

This week we continue in “wait and see” mode as our analysis continues to suggest that global equity markets are in the process of building an important top. Over the last few weeks, share price action has become, by and large, very erratic, with prices moving up and down in wide swings. This type of high volatility is a classic hallmark of topping action wherein the construction of a market top always takes several wild swings up and down over a period of time (usually weeks) to complete a distribution process. We have been mindful of this probability, and have tried to respect the powerful nature of this prior six month bull trend anticipating that the bull will not yield readily. In last week's comments, we noted that the S&P appeared to be near another important short term low, and that a rally looked in the offing. We said,

“While we know that the market moved down aggressively today, (Tuesday, June 12th), we also believe that last week's lows saw a sufficiently near-term, oversold reading on the major indices in order to establish a reasonably solid short-term low. Today’s action looks, thus far, very much like a ‘retest’ of last week's lows. As a result, we expect that the major stock indices should hold here and begin a counter-trend advance. In our view, a near-term rally should allow the market to continue to “hold up” over the next 5 to 8 market sessions and that rally should begin fairly soon—likely over the next day or two. On the upside, the island reversal gaps on the S&P near 1530 look like a ‘reasonable’ objective with 1530 likely very strong resistance.”

Not only has the market come back up across the range but the S&P ended up closely approaching its former high near 1540. Will it break through to new higher highs? Well, believe it or not, that type of behavior is still quite possible and it would not change our view that the market is topping in the slightest. In our technical studies, we see “potential’ for the S&P to press higher toward the 1560 area, which would be a likely maximum for the next few weeks, and likely for the entire move. That’s our “BEST CASE” outcome, and we would not give that more than a 25% chance. If, more likely, the S&P breaks back below 1520 any time over the next few days, odds will be increasing that the double top highs at 1540 will do it for this bull run, and that market will be running into more trouble in the days and weeks ahead. Of course, we continue to eyeball global markets, and we fear that the upcoming correction-bear market in stocks will be a global decline, a global bear. At present, we do not expect to see major downside fireworks before mid-July. At present rates, stock markets still have enough upside momentum to hold up a while longer. It is our best judgment that the month of July will see the downside action ‘kick off’ and run its course through the months of August, September and October. It looks like it could be a long disappointing summer. Of course, time will tell.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Report

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 06/15
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 82K

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[Ghost Dog]

25. Crude Inventories 6902K

Jun 20 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 06/15
Actual 6902K
Prior 82K

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices drop below $69 a barrel

Oil prices fell slightly Wednesday amid expectations that a U.S. fuel supplies report will show increases in product inventories, but a decline in crude oil stockpiles. The start of a general strike in Nigeria supported prices, although it was too early to see an effect on the industry.

Light, sweet crude for July delivery, which expires later Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, dropped 27 cents to $68.83 a barrel in electronic trading by midday in Europe. The August contract fell 23 cents to $69.31 a barrel.

-cut-

Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expect the U.S. Department of Energy data to show gasoline stocks rose 1 million barrels last week. Distillate inventories, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, are expected to have increased 900,000 barrels.

Crude oil stocks are expected to have fallen 150,000 barrels last week. Refinery utilization is expected to have increased 0.6 percentage points.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Futures rise on Home Depot, earnings in focus

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock futures rose on Wednesday, with Home Depot Inc.'s (NYSE:HD - news) plan for a $22.5 billion share buyback set to underpin demand for equities while investors await a batch of earnings reports, including Morgan Stanley's (NYSE:MS - news).

Shares of Home Depot, a component of the Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI - news) were up 5.2 percent in Europe.

The home improvement chain announced its share repurchase plan late on Tuesday, when it also said its board had approved a $10.3 billion sale for its supply unit.

But even with the boost from Home Depot, investors could tread cautiously, with recent increases in oil prices and moves in benchmark Treasury bond yields staying in focus.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070620/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc

[ozymandius]

5. Bear Stearns hedge funds near shutting down: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Two Bear Stearns Cos. (NYSE:BSC - news) hedge funds that invested heavily in securities backed by subprime mortgage loans are close to being shut down as a rescue plan is falling apart, The Wall Street Journal Online reported on Wednesday.

Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE:MER - news), one of the hedge funds' lenders, will move to seize collateral from the two funds and sell it, the Journal reported, citing unspecified documents.

-cut-

The struggling Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund suffered 23 percent losses through April, amid money-losing investments in subprime mortgages, and faced demands from creditors to post additional collateral.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070620/bs_nm/subprime_bearstearns_dc

[UpInArms]

12. Merrill seizes $800 mln Bear hedge fund assets

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2024502520070620

NEW YORK, June 20 (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER.N: Quote, Profile, Research) has seized $800 million of assets from troubled hedge funds managed by Bear Stearns Cos. Inc. and plans to sell them off on Wednesday, sources familiar with the situation said.

The move makes it unlikely that the funds will be able to restructure. Merrill's selling such a large quantity of illiquid assets, which are mainly collateralized debt obligations, could force prices in that market markedly lower, sources said.

The two funds suffered double-digit losses through April after making bad bets on securities backed by subprime loans.

Merrill initially seized the assets on Friday and planned to sell them on Monday, but it refrained from doing so until it saw the restructuring plan from Bear Stearns (BSC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), sources said.

After seeing the plan, which included $1.5 billion of additional capital from Bear, Merrill decided to instead sell off the assets.

...more...

[fedsron2us]

19. The excellent BondDad blog has more analysis of this story.

It contains these telling quotes from the WSJ

Last month, Enhanced Leverage reported that its value fell 6.75% in April after the fund's bets on the mortgage market went wrong. Two weeks later, it put the loss at 18%, spooking already-nervous investors and creditors and sending many of them running for the exits.

The huge revision at least in part reflected conversations Bear Stearns hedge-fund managers had with bond dealers, three of which told them in late April that some of the funds' assets were worth less than the values stated on the funds' books, according to a person familiar with the matter.

......

Unlike stocks and Treasury bonds, whose prices are continually quoted and easily obtained, many of these derivative instruments trade infrequently and don't have clear market prices. To come up with market values for these investments -- a process known as "marking" their positions to market -- investment funds often rely on their own valuation models.

.......

A forced sale of the Bear Stearns funds' assets now could trigger a broader repricing of mortgage-backed bonds and lead to losses and margin calls -- demands for additional cash or collateral -- at other funds. That prospect might have given some of Bear Stearns's lenders, which include Merrill, Citigroup Inc. and Barclays PLC of Britain, an incentive to help out the funds. But Merrill and others decided to bail out of the funds yesterday.

http://bonddad.blogspot.com/

Despite all the fancy computer models used to price up these financial instruments nobody knows how much these mortgage backed securities are really worth. However, recent events at Bear suggest that the asset valuation of many of the other funds of this sort may need to be revised downwards by as much as a fifth. If this sort of price drop was to occur in such a short period in the main Stock Market everyone would be talking about a crash. Instead, the story barely scrapes off the financial pages. I wonder how long it will be until the ramifications of this debt crisis make it to the head of the news.

[UpInArms]

6. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 82.502 Change -0.032 (-0.04%)

Will The Fed Leave Rates At 5.25% Even If Housing Slows Growth Further?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Will_The_Fed_Leave_Rates_1182269154990.html

The US housing sector – the Achilles’ heel of the economy - continues to be a much-discussed issue by Fed members as it has the potential to prolong the recent slowdown in expansion. However, with monetary policy makers remaining hawkish on inflation, the US dollar may benefit as it appears that rates have almost no chance of being cut.

US Fed – Homegrown Slowdown?
RBA – Slow And Steady Wins The (Inflation Fighting) Race
ECB – On Hold Until Year End
BOJ – No Hope For Hikes Keeps Carry Trades In Play

Yield Spread Analysis 06/12 – 06/19

Yields around the globe have fallen back after surging to multi-year highs as the steep plunge in government bond prices have finally shown a recovery. Long-term yields in the US and Canada have taken the biggest hit, especially after softer US economic data has hurt prospects for rate hikes by the Fed while weaker Canadian CPI has quelled fears of aggressive policy action by the BOC. Meanwhile, Swiss long term rates have also fallen even after the SNB’s rate hike to 2.50 percent as markets are not expecting much in the way of rate normalization this year.

Looking ahead, the release of the minutes from the BOE’s meeting earlier in the month could have major impact on Gilts. The risk lies in how the policy makers voted, as just a few members in favor of a hike would ramp up expectations for action in July. On the other hand, a unanimous vote for steady rates could signal a repeat next month.

...more...

Nikkei Climbs to a 7-Year High, Yen Regains Its Stance Against the Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/jpy_news/Nikkei_Climbs_to_a_7_Year_1182331232677.html

Japanese stock market hit a 7 year high on record gains from export industries. The yen regained some ground against the dollar a little, trading as low 123.00 today. The bond yields contracted on weak manufacturing sentiment.

Headlines

Govt adopts '07 economic guideline / Improving economy focus of reforms – Japanese government adopted a first reform under the administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, appointed in September. The reform is aimed at improving economic growth through increasing productivity, especially in nonmanufacturing industries, calls for maximum cuts in expenditures in the budget of fiscal 2008. Source: Yomuri Shimbun
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20070620TDY01006.htm

ECONOMIC FORUM / Scandals taint private sector / Comsn, Nova wrongdoing shows government's oversight role vital – Comsn Inc., provider of nursing care services, was notified by Japanese Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry that it could not open new brunches and could not renew licenses for the existing ones in April 2008. Likewise Nova Corp., a chain of English conversation schools, was prohibited from offering new contracts to students lasting longer than a year for the next six months. The companies were imposing strict quotes on sales and prioritized sales over quality of service. The regulations that companies face now are squeezing them out of business altogether and result from government’s push to grow the services industry. The message sent was quite powerful as both firms were the largest in their respective industries. Source: The Yomuri Shimbun
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/business/20070619TDY04003.htm

...more...

US Housing Data, Round Two

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/US_Dollar_Succumbs_To_Another_1182287736600.html

Housing starts fell in line with expectations by 2.1 percent to 1474K from an upwardly revised 1506K, signaling that homebuilders are not initiating projects as quickly as in previous months. However, building permits jumped a greater-than-expected 3.0 percent to 1501K from an upwardly revised 1457K. As a leading indicator for starts, the data points to a pick up in construction during the summer. Given the lack of solid demand for properties, these building plans will only contribute further to softness sector-wide as inventories will only rise further, and prices will have to be slashed in order to liquidate. The breakdown of the data is worth nothing as well: Improvements were contained to multi-family units - which tend to be rented out - while declines were seen across the board for single-family units - which are typically mortgaged. Although the multi-family index tends to be highly volatile, this will be a factor worth watching as potential homeowners seem to be shifting towards more affordable rentals and away from expensive loans as mortgage rates rise.

...more...

[mojavekid]

22. Daily Pfennig 6/20/07: Worst Housing Market Since the Depression...

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=1450

Good day... The data came in right where we expected concerning the U.S. housing market, and the dollar slid. Housing starts declined in May for the first time in four months. Building permits were up slightly, but this one piece of good news was more than offset with ABC Consumer Confidence which was a -14 after last month's -13. There will be no help for the dollar today as the MBA mortgage application index has already been reported to have dropped 3.4% after last week's 6.6% increase.

The markets seem to be waking up to the fact that the housing market is nowhere near the bottom. Borrowers are being squeezed by the treasury market's recent sell-off, which has increased 30-year mortgage rates the most since 2004. The National Median Home price is poised for its first annual decline since the Great Depression. An executive at the giant bond fund PIMCO said it best: "It's a blood bath. We're talking about a two- to three-year downturn that will take a whole host of characters with it, from job creation to consumer confidence. Eventually it will take the stock markets and corporate profit." The U.S. housing market has provided the economy with support through the creation of wealth and the seemingly endless ATM of price increases. The recent increase in yields, along with the subprime mortgage meltdown, is going to kick this support right out from under the economy, and the dollar is going to be drug down along with it.

The big winner overnight in the currency markets was the Swedish krona, which increased after the central bank raised interest rates and said two more increases were likely. Increasing employment and slowing productivity growth threaten to fuel inflation, according to the central bank. The move was expected, but the accompanying statement was a bit more aggressive than expected. "The price pressures we are seeing today make it necessary to increase rates," said a central bank official. "We want them to proceed quickly, one in June and then in September and October." The Swedish economic expansion last year set a six-year high, so the government feels it can get more aggressive with rate increases going forward. The Swedish krona can be purchased as a single currency CD and is also a part of our popular EuroTrax Index CD along with the euro, Swiss franc, and Norwegian krone.

more...

[DemReadingDU]

32. Rate Rise Pushes Housing, Economy to `Blood Bath'

By Kathleen M. Howley


The worst is yet to come for the U.S. housing market.

The jump in 30-year mortgage rates by more than a half a percentage point to 6.74 percent in the past five weeks is putting a crimp on borrowers with the best credit just as a crackdown in subprime lending standards limits the pool of qualified buyers. The national median home price is poised for its first annual decline since the Great Depression, and the supply of unsold homes is at a record 4.2 million, the National Association of Realtors reported.

``It's a blood bath,'' said Mark Kiesel, executive vice president of Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., the manager of $668 billion in bond funds. ``We're talking about a two- to three-year downturn that will take a whole host of characters with it, from job creation to consumer confidence. Eventually it will take the stock market and corporate profit.''


more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=akV2sasSGUY8&refer=us

[Ghost Dog]

26. Dollar Little Moved As Risk Aversion, Fed Chatter Pick Up

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_news/Dollar_Little_Moved_As_Risk_1182364724370.html?engine=rss&keyword=article

The US economic calendar has passed through another morning session without the complications of a top market-moving economic indicator to disrupt price action. However, as the short-term crowd was lulled into complacency, fundamental traders were tuning into Fed speak and the implications surrounding the collapse of a big bank’s internal hedge fund on market-wide risk appetite.

Without the immediate gratification of a key economic report though, dollar traders were comfortable with keeping their favored currency relatively unchanged. Since finding its way back above 1.34, EURUSD has formed a tight, 20-point congestion channel below 1.3435. The pound-denominated major was a little more active since the minutes of the last BoE decision revealed the vote was closer than many had suspected. GBPUSD was 70 points above overnight lows and was having trouble with moving above 1.9940. Making its biggest swing low in two weeks, USDJPY made a move down to 123.10 through the Asian session before quickly working its way back towards resistance at 123.65. Finally, USDCHF was working on a fourth down day, as it dropped another 50 points to 1.2355.

Continuing with the housing theme that has dominated the US markets since the beginning of the week, the only indicator to cross the wires this morning was the MBA’s weekly mortgage applications figures. According to the group’s figures, filings for home loans fell 3.4 percent through the week of June 15th. This is a poignant addition to the collection of weak numbers reported so far this week.

...

Moving away from the housing market, but keeping to the warning on risk in current market conditions; the Treasury Secretary and a few key Fed members offered their opinions on the state of things. In a speech to the House Finance Committee this morning, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson zeroed in on the importance of economic reform in China. Trying to relay the true issues with the Asian giant’s economy (besides the favored currency band), Paulson said Chinese officials should do more to promote domestic consumption and wean itself off of its reliance on foreign investment and exports to avoid a possible financial crisis. Fed Presidents Janet Yellen and Timothy Geithner delivered a similar message. Yellen said the calm seas in the markets shouldn’t encourage complacency and a roll back in reforms as similar episodes in the past have led to disaster. Geithner recalled the Asian financial meltdown of the 90’s to color his call for vigilance, suggesting officials’ attempts to shield their economies from risk through manipulating exchange rates could exacerbate the fallout.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

27. Pound jumps after unexpectedly hawkish set of BoE minutes

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2007/06/20/afx3838969.html

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The pound rose sharply after minutes revealed the Bank of England's (BoE) nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) were split down the middle on the need for higher borrowing costs earlier this month.

The minutes to the most recent rate-setting meeting on June 7 showed the MPC voted 5-4 in favour of keeping its key repo rate unchanged at 5.50 pct. The vote was much closer than anticipated. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial News were predicting the vote would be 7-2 in favour of unchanged rates.

The minutes are likely to boost expectations the BoE will hike rates in July.

'The minutes were far more hawkish than the market was looking for,' said Ian Stannard at BNP Paribas (other-otc: BNPZY.PK - news - people ).

'Sterling is gaining a lot of support as the market has now brought forward its expectations for the next rate hike to July from August,' he added.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

28. BoJ split on economic trends

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/210f8658-1f44-11dc-ac86-000b5df10621,_i_rssPage=8672feb4-504a-11da-bbd7-0000779e2340.html

The Bank of Japan believes there is “considerable uncertainty” about the likely pace of price rises, according to minutes of a policy board meeting that reveal a split over the extent of inflationary pressure in the economy.

Minutes published on Wednesday of the mid-May meeting when the board voted unanimously to hold overnight rates at 0.5 per cent show that some members detected “underlying inflation pressures”, which they said were increasing “steadily, albeit moderately”.

These members cited evidence that food companies were beginning to pass on rising prices, partly caused by the weak yen. They also said the number of products whose prices were rising had surpassed those that were falling, “suggesting that firms might have been gradually recovering their pricing power”. They also noted that crude oil prices, which are reflected in the consumer price index, were edging up again.

Other members disagreed, saying “competition among firms was intense and consumers were strongly resistant to price rises”. A finance ministry official attending the meeting as an observer said he saw no sign of inflationary pressures, noting that the CPI was negative.

Prices have fallen for four straight months, although the May figure showed a decline of only 0.1 per cent. Members blamed falling prices on lower mobile phone prices and air fares.

The discussion revealed a split in the board’s thinking, analysts said. More hawkish members want to normalise interest rates as soon as they are able and are confident that above-trend growth will inevitably feed through into pricing pressure. Others would prefer to wait for empirical evidence that prices are rising.

/...

[ozymandius]

7. Microsoft to change Vista after Google complaint

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq:MSFT - news) has agreed to modify its Windows Vista operating system in response to a complaint that its computer search function put Google Inc. (Nasdaq:GOOG - news) and other potential rivals at a disadvantage, the Justice Department and Microsoft said on Tuesday.

Under an agreement with the department and 17 state attorneys general and the District of Columbia, Microsoft will build into Vista an option to let users select a default desktop search program on personal computers running Windows.

The function, known as "Instant Search," allows Windows users to enter a search query and get a list of results from their hard drive that contain the search term.

The agreement was made public as part of a joint report that the Justice Department and Microsoft filed late on Tuesday with the court overseeing Microsoft's compliance with a 2002 antitrust consent decree.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070620/bs_nm/microsoft_google_dc

[Hugin]

24. Now, if they'll restore the 'Print Screen' to 'Paint' screen capture mechanism...

I'll maybe start believing Vista isn't all about the Media Monopoly and Litigation Management.

Just maybe.

[ozymandius]

8. Good morning everyone.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

I have to leave for a few hours. Have fun!

:hi: Ozy

[texpatriot2004]

9. K & R nm

[Viva_La_Revolution]

10. #5!

Morning everyone!

[UpInArms]

11. 9:55 EST numbers and blather

Dow 13,643.55 8.13 (0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,626.00 0.76 (0.03%)
S&P 500 1,533.55 0.15 (0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 5.113% 0.027

NYSE Volume 317,897,000
Nasdaq Volume 182,028,000

09:45 am : The cash market followed the form set by the futures market and opened higher with the major indices logging modest gains.

The early standout, as has been widely reported, is Dow component Home Depot (HD 40.66, +2.39) which wowed investors with news of the sale of its supply business for $10.3 billion and a recapitalization plan that includes a $22.5 billion increase to its stock repurchase plan.

Morgan Stanley (MS 90.02, +2.22) also struck a bullish note with a fiscal second quarter earnings report that surpassed analysts' EPS and net revenue expectations by a wide margin.

Both of these companies have been featured on Briefing.com's Bargain Hunting page and are up 19% and 56%, respectively, since our initial profile.DJ30 +31.46 NASDAQ +5.57 SP500 +2.75

09:24 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0.

08:55 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. There hasn't been any change in the morning bias as stocks remain on track for a positive start.

08:28 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.5. The futures market is strengthening as a potive tone has taken root. The $22.5 billion increase in Home Depot's share buyback plan has played a big role this morning, but long-term rates trending back toward 5.00% and a dip in oil prices have provided added support.

[UpInArms]

13. Mortgage applications drop, housing mired in slump

http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USN2023111420070620

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Applications to buy and refinance homes dropped last week, an industry trade group said on Wednesday, the latest sign that U.S. housing remains mired in a downturn.

The Mortgage Bankers Association's mortgage application index slid 3.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted 643.7 in the week ended June 15.

The drop in applications piled on to reports from the country's builders and the government this week suggesting any sustained housing rebound could be next year's business.

Housing starts fell more than 2 percent in May as builders grappled with a stockpile of unsold homes, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday.

Sentiment among home builders sank to its weakest level this month in more than 16 years, based on an index reported on Monday by the National Association of Home Builders. The group expects building and sales will keep eroding until late this year before starting to recover in 2008.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. New age town embraces dollar alternative

http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USN0530157720070619

GREAT BARRINGTON, Massachusetts (Reuters) - A walk down Main Street in this New England town calls to mind the pictures of Norman Rockwell, who lived nearby and chronicled small-town American life in the mid-20th Century.

So it is fitting that the artist's face adorns the 50 BerkShares note, one of five denominations in a currency adopted by towns in western Massachusetts to support locally owned businesses over national chains.

"I just love the feel of using a local currency," said Trice Atchison, 43, a teacher who used BerkShares to buy a snack at a cafe in Great Barrington, a town of about 7,400 people. "It keeps the profit within the community."

There are about 844,000 BerkShares in circulation, worth $759,600 at the fixed exchange rate of 1 BerkShare to 90 U.S. cents, according to program organizers. The paper scrip is available in denominations of one, five, 10, 20 and 50.

In their 10 months of circulation, they've become a regular feature of the local economy. Businesses that accept BerkShares treat them interchangeably with dollars: a $1 cup of coffee sells for 1 BerkShare, a 10 percent discount for people paying in BerkShares.

...more...

[KoKo]

16. Nice Read....thanks UIA

:hi: Great Barrington and Stockbridge...two of the most beautiful areas in America. Glad to see they've kept their independent spirit.

[ozymandius]

17. This is great!

Decatur, GA has a similar system. It uses a debit card that can be refilled at the local bank. Similar discounts apply to those who use the Decatur bucks.

[Roland99]

21. Wow, very interesting. And I wonder what effect that would have if all cities/towns did it?!

[Ghost Dog]

33. Very inspiring, yes indeed.

The way to save the planet, the human future, I believe, will have to involve a considerable degree of re-localisation of local economies all over the world. Only what is absolutely, irreplaceably necessary should continue to be 'globalised' (in the economic sense).

See eg. http://www.foe.co.uk/campaigns/sustainable_development/progress/

[UpInArms]

15. Paulson proves that he a patsy and not a Pat

05. Paulson: U.S. 'cannot turn back the clock' on globalization
10:00 AM ET, Jun 20, 2007 - 5 minutes ago

06. Paulson sees progress in resolving global imbalances
10:00 AM ET, Jun 20, 2007 - 5 minutes ago

07. Paulson says global economy 'firing on all engines'
10:00 AM ET, Jun 20, 2007 - 5 minutes ago

[ozymandius]

18. update

11:32
Dow 13,657.86 Up 22.44 (0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,630.27 Up 3.51 (0.13%)
S&P 500 1,533.48 Down 0.22 (0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 5.109% Up 0.023
NYSE Volume 1,013,105,000
Nasdaq Volume 685,545,000

10:55 am : The stock market got a nice little pop (emphasis on the word "little") following the Dept. of Energy's weekly inventory report.

The datapoint catching participants' attention was the 6.9 million barrel build in crude stockpiles. The market had been expecting the report to show a small decline of 50K barrels.

Oil prices have retreated in the wake of the report with the price on the July futures contract slipping $1.01 to $68.09 per barrel. In conjunction, the energy sector (-0.7%) has dropped to a new session low and is acting as a drag of sorts on the broader market.DJ30 +16.10 NASDAQ +4.27 SP500 +0.38 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1445/1304/459 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1507/1485/331 mln

10:30 am : The selling pressure has abated and the indices are trading in close proximity to the unchangd level. That has been the case throughout the week, so it would be little surprise to see more of the same range-bound trading today.

The performance of the 10 economic sectors reflects the relatively flat standing of the broader market as none have made a big enough move to make a difference.

Consumer Discretionary (+0.51%), thanks to Home Depot (HD 41.06, +2.79), is the frontrunner at the moment while Health Care (-0.39%) is bringing up the rear.DJ30 +4.71 NASDAQ -1.01 SP500 -1.15 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1573/1122/326 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1596/1339/236 mln

[Roland99]

20. 12:12pm - Rednesday

Dow 13,628.43 -6.99
Nasdaq 2,623.56 -3.20
S&P 500 1,528.31 -5.39
10 YR 5.12% +0.03
Oil $67.70 $-1.40
Gold $661.00 $-3.70

[mojavekid]

23. The Mogambo Guru: Death By Inflation Report

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Mogambo/DREssays/MG062007.html

My mouth went dry when I saw that Total Fed Credit dropped by a huge $7.9 billion last week, and even foreign central banks were not buying with their usual gusto of snapping up quite a few billion in government and agency debt every week, and actually sold $134 millions' worth.

My hands visibly shook as I also learned that the official rate of inflation inched up to 2.7%, which is marginally higher than the official 2.6% last month, which is down from the official 4.2% we had a year ago.

Disguising my terror with a cruel sneer in my voice, I say, "Note the wide disparity between this official 2.7% inflation to the official GDP Deflator, which is an official 4.0%, my darling Junior Mogambo Rangers (JMR)! Inquiring minds want to know, 'What in the ding-dong hell is going on around here?'"

The answer is that consumer price inflation is actually raging at over 10%, according to John Williams of shadowstats.com, who calculates the actual rate of inflation the "old" way, which is the way that people have always calculated inflation, which is to look at how much things cost, and then compare that to how much they cost last week/month/year/decade/in all of freaking history.

Plenty more...

[Ghost Dog]

29. European stocks end up on insurers, DAX hits record

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2007-06-20T165308Z_01_L20920471_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-UPDATE-3.XML

LONDON, June 20 (Reuters) - European shares closed higher on Wednesday as merger and acquisition talk surrounding insurers and banks helped markets pare losses struck in the past two sessions, while Germany's key DAX index hit a record close.

Allianz (ALVG.DE: Quote, Profile , Research) rose for the fifth day in a row, with the day's 2 percent gains stoked by a report in a German stock market newsletter that Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE: Quote, Profile , Research) was in talks to buy the retail operations of the insurer's Dresdner Bank unit.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> closed 0.4 percent stronger at 1,620.2, paring a 0.7 percent fall seen in the past two days.

Germany's 30 share DAX <.GDAXI> jumped 0.7 percent to a record close of 8,090.5, spurred by gains in Allianz and Siemens (SIEGn.DE: Quote, Profile , Research).

"Cyclicals are still storming ahead because global growth prospects are very strong," said Mark Bon, a European fund manager at Canada Life. The DAX has surged about 23 percent in 2007.

"It has performed very well and it should continue to do well, but not at the same record breaking pace it has in the first half," said Bon.

The FTSEurofirst index is shy of a 6-1/2 year high of 1,630.7 hit on Monday, but up about 9 percent so far this year. Continued...

/...

[UpInArms]

30. 3:27 EST Markets "got languish"?

Dow 13,558.28 77.14 (0.57%)
Nasdaq 2,612.41 14.35 (0.55%)
S&P 500 1,521.26 12.44 (0.81%)
10-Yr Bond 5.123% 0.037

NYSE Volume 2,322,516,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,613,405,000

3:00 pm : The stock market continues got languish, bringing reminders that the summer doldrums also often bring a summer slowdown. The fact remains that almost all of the stock market gains the past fifty years have occurred in the months from November through April. May through October has produced almost no gain. May was a very good month this year, but traders may be thinking the summer could nevertheless prove problematic as a whole.

The 10-year yield at 5.12% and the lack of any concrete postive news has the market on the defensive. DJ30 -49.42 NASDAQ -9.87 SP500 -9.60

2:30 pm : The market is struggling to catch a bid right now as a lack of leadership, outside a handful of influential stocks, is weighing on the broader market.

The indices are sitting at their worst levels of the day.

On a comparative basis, the mid cap stocks are faring the best today. To wit, the S&P 400 Midcap Index is down 0.3% versus declines of 0.7% for the Russell 2000 and S&P 500, respectively.

DJ30 -62.19 NASDAQ -11.04 SP500 -9.97 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1807/1159/1.31 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2107/1128/1.01 bln

2:00 pm : After a brief bout of selling activity, the indices have settled down and are working to pare their losses.

While much has been made of Home Depot's (HD 40.79, +2.52) stock buyback announcement and the ensuing strength in its stock today, a glimpse at the Dow shows that Home Depot doesn't have much company on the winning side of things.

Presently, 20 of the 30 Dow components are trading with a loss. ExxonMobil (XOM 84.29, -1.55) is the biggest loser and is anchoring a weak energy sector today.DJ30 -27.56 NASDAQ -5.37 SP500 -6.64 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1865/1092/1.20 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2088/1133/925 mln

[Ghost Dog]

31. Too Crude.

US STOCKS-Indexes dip as energy stocks fall on crude
http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=usMktRpt&storyID=2007-06-20T173326Z_01_N20369993_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-UPDATE-8.XML

NEW YORK, June 20 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were trading lower on Wednesday, nudged downward by heavily-weighted energy shares which fell in-line with crude oil futures.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM.N: Quote, Profile , Research) and Chevron Corp. (CVX.N: Quote, Profile , Research) were the biggest drags on the S&P500 after weekly government data showed a larger-than-expected build in crude supplies, which sent crude futures <CLc1> down over 2 percent to $67.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"I thought the oil inventories would help the market, sending crude prices lower, but these indices have so many energy stocks in them, it sold off a little bit when that data came out," said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 43.49 points, or 0.32 percent, at 13,591.93. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 8.69 points, or 0.57 percent, at 1,525.01. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was down 10.90 points, or 0.41 percent, at 2,615.86.

Exxon stock was down 2.1 percent to $84.03 while Chevron fell 1.69 percent to $81.88. Other energy stocks trading lower included Marathon Oil (MRO.N: Quote, Profile , Research), down 3 percent to $62.73 and Occidental Petroleum (OXY.N: Quote, Profile , Research), down 2.8 percent to $57.45.

/...

Stockpiling, to be ready for something??

[ozymandius]

35. Trust Bush.

He will find some way to defecate on the World Stage. Perhaps in Act Two, Scene One: The Strait of Hormuz.

[ozymandius]

34. I leave for a few hours... and ... OH! just look at this mess!

Dow 13,489.42 Down 146.00 (1.07%)
Nasdaq 2,599.96 Down 26.80 (1.02%)
S&P 500 1,512.84 Down 20.86 (1.36%)
10-Yr Bond 5.123% Up 0.037
NYSE Volume 3,265,976,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,023,042,000

4:25 pm : The stock market struggled today, but not the entire day as a blowout earnings report from Morgan Stanley (MS 87.32, -0.48), word from Home Depot (HD 40.03, +1.76) that it is increasing its stock buyback authorization by a massive $22.5 billion, and a drop in oil prices all helped to keep selling efforts in check during the morning session.

The bulls, however, never quite stepped up to the plate with any conviction; and the afternoon trade played out in a decidedly bearish fashion when bids all but disappeared around 1:00 ET.

A backup in the 10-year note yield from 5.09% to 5.14% will garner much of the blame for the reversal of fortune, but that is a dubious excuse when taking into account that the drop in yield last week from 5.32% to 5.17% was viewed as a rallying point.

So, with the yield still below its best level from last week, it doesn't make a great deal of sense that the bump to 5.14% would cause such a negative reaction today.

What did then, you ask? There isn't a definitive answer, but a plausible explanation relates to reports that Bear Stearns may be shutting two mortgage hedge funds due to losses suffered in the wake of the subprime fallout.

A whiff of this possibility sparked spillover concerns that hit the broader market in a sell-first-ask-questions-later move that manifested itself in vivid form in the financial sector (-1.7%) which sold off in the afternoon trade. Incidentally, the financial sector began to weaken noticeably around 1:00 ET and closed at its lows for the session.

The fact that selling accelerated in the final hour when bond yields held fairly steady validated the idea that something other than the backup in yield got the better of today's participants.

Overall, there just wasn't any sector leadership to save the market. All ten economic sectors ended lower with energy (-2.9%) leading the way.

The latter sector got clobbered after a weekly inventory report from the government showed a much larger than expected 6.90 million barrel build in crude stockpiles versus expectations for a slight draw of 50K barrels. July crude futures dropped $0.91 to $68.19 per barrel, which was a boon for the airline stocks today.DJ30 -146.00 NASDAQ -26.80 SP500 -20.86 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2186/848/2.02 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2550/749/1.54 bln