STOCK MARKET WATCH, TUESDAY 30 DECEMBER (#1)

[ozymandius]

Tuesday December 30, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 391
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 000
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 18 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 70 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 282
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 766
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 29, 2003

Dow... 10,450.00 +125.33 (+1.21%)
Nasdaq... 2,006.48 +33.34 (+1.69%)
S&P 500... 1,109.48 +13.59 (+1.24%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.23% +0.08 (+1.98%)
Gold future... 415.30 +2.50 (+0.61%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. no WrapUp today so we have Nolte Notes

Nolte Notes - Needing Adjustments in 2004
by Paul J. Nolte, CFA

It is that time of year when all good prognosticators pull out their crystal balls and look intently into the future and begin making predictions. If they are lucky, a few will actually come true. However the sad truth is many fall well short of the mark. We suffered a bit in the past year for not giving the rebound much credibility, and as a result, were much more conservative that we should have been. We did, however, offset that one poor call with a very good one – overweight the small and mid cap stocks. They doubled the performance of the S&P500 and went a long way to repairing our conservative bend on the year. So much for ’03 – what have you done for me lately? We will, over the remainder of the newsletter, outline our views on the markets, sectors and pick a couple stocks that may actually do well in the coming year. We always enter the new year with one resolution – to do better than we did last year. And if successful, we should all be ale to stand a bit taller come this time next year. It is our view that the easy money has been made, and it will likely be tougher to show terrific returns in ’04. We are already contemplating pulling back from our heavily weighted small cap position toward large cap value. Finally, what has been working is not likely to be working at the end of ’04 – adjustments will need to be made to be successful.

The low volumes of the last week (and again this week) will make technical analysis difficult, until everyone gets back from the office parties. So we will begin to lay the framework from which we will be making investment decisions in ’04. First: relative valuations. After being so undervalued vs. large stocks over the past three years, small stocks are now on par to slightly overvalued vs. large stocks – roughly equal to the mid-90’s when large stocks dominated. We will be placing greater emphasis on large stocks in ’04. Second: Our stock model. Based upon interest rates and dividend yield, it has done a relatively good job of making “calls”; it did miss a bearish ’02 but hit ’00 and ’03 correctly. In 56 years, there have only been four back-to-back “positive” readings, such as we are entering in ’04. Only ‘81/’82 did the return in the second year exceed that of the first. With a small data set, we feel somewhat certain that ’04 will not be as good as ’03. Finally: our technical models. While they have generally confirmed the rally this year, they have been developing some divergences that should be monitored. If we look at prior years ending in “4”, the first half is a toss-up, with a strong final quarter. So if the market were to follow our plan, a trading range year that will finish up by no more than 5% is our call.

more

[Maeve]

2. Cash registers jingle all the way

Christmas cheer for retailers
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Last-minute shoppers and post-Christmas bargain hunters fired up holiday sales over the Christmas holiday week, a report said Tuesday.

Sales for the week ended Dec. 27 jumped 24.6 percent over the same period a year ago, ShopperTrak said in its weekly National Retail Sales Estimate (NRSE) report.

"Overall, the American consumer has not let retailers down so far this season," Michael Niemira, lead consultant for ShopperTrak wrote in the report. "With December shaping up to finish six percent stronger than last year, and November already up nearly five percent, we can say that this should be the strongest holiday retail season since 1999," he said.

[ozymandius]

3. Wall Street profit takers to set the tone

As if we didn't see this coming.

Wall Street was expected to give back some the previous session's strong gains on Tuesday as investors take the opportunity to book some profits on the last full trading day of the year.

Futures trade pointed to small opening losses for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500, but Nasdaq futures indicated a resumption of Monday's advance for the Composite index, which closed above 2,000 for the first time since January 2002.

<cut>
Also after the open, the National Association of Realtors is set to report that existing homes were sold at an annual rate of 6.3m in November, down slightly from 6.35m in the previous month.

more

[54anickel]

4. Did you see the LBN on Mad Cow for today yet? Not good.

81 Cattle so far that they figure are infected, I am sure that number is much, much higher. And how many have already been to slaughter and ingested?

7 year ban by either China or Taiwan....doesn't really matter who it is, it will probably be the first of many.

How's Shrub gonna get out of this one? It all boils down once again to greed, greed, greed.

I'll bet that torte reform goes thru a lot faster now! :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

5. Dollar Watch

Good Morning everyone! :hi:

My, so much news going on with the dollar these days. I look forward to UIA's return to help try and make sense of it all. Personally, I'm ready to just hide in a locked closet somewhere until the blood-letting stops. :scared:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s
Last trade 87.28 Change -0.07 (-0.08%)

Settle 87.35 Settle Time 23:35

Open 87.32 Previous Close 87.35

High 87.42 Low 87.26

[warrior1]

6. Money

Does the bleeding start today?

[54anickel]

9. Think the buck will see the slaughter house next week after all the

big dogs return from the holiday parties.
We could easily break down into the 86 range today though.
Pretty close already.

Last trade 87.15 Change -0.20 (-0.23%)
High 87.42 Low 87.12

[Coventina]

7. No "I Ching" today

The four-legged furry child is going in for surgery today.
Nothing to be concerned about, but it has thrown my morning into chaos.

Wonder what beef futures will do today?
Personally, I hope they tank. Then maybe we will get REAL change in our disgusting farming/slaughter industry.
I'm sorry about the small, family operations that may be hurt, but jeez, whoever thought that feeding herbivores animal protein was a good idea?????

Take care out there!

:hi:

p.s. I survived the GRE, it isn't as bad a test as I thought it would be. I only have my preliminary results, though
640 verbal
420 quantitative.

[54anickel]

8. Congrats in the GRE!

Best for the four-legged furry child as well. :hi:

Will miss the I Ching today. I share your thoughts on the slaughter industries. I hope it expands into ALL slaughter procedures. It's all pretty disgusting.

There's all kinds of critters in Farmer Vics fritters. :evilgrin:

[librechik]

19. small family operations will be sought after, if they're clean and organic

invest in buffalo futures?

[ozymandius]

10. Sorry to disappear folks.

The morning has been nuts. Good stuff though, I hope, on the job front.

I may be around later this afternoon.

best to you,

Ozymandius

[lfairban]

11. Looks dull after yesterday.

Dow ___10,435.18 -14.82 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq __2,005.60 -0.88 (-0.04%)
S&P 500 _1,109.00 -0.48 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.259% +0.029

I keep wondering about the prevailing conventional wisdom that January will be a positive month. The market seems to be doing the opposite of what it is expected to do. If all of the controversies about mutual funds causes people to shy away from them, and large investors take money off the table early in the month, things could very easily go south.

[54anickel]

12. Doing a bit more research during the lull in the markets. Came across

this interesting paper at Mises. It is long, but it is the last
3 pages that are of particular interest with regards to the dollar
and the future. It seems supportive of yesterdays post regarding dollar, euro and gold.

Interesting times indeed.

http://www.mises.org/asc/2003/asc9baker.pdf

THE CURRENT BACKDROP: A FALTERING U.S. DOLLAR
AND A CREDIT BUBBLE
Gold’s appeal as a store of value has withstood centuries of fiat money creation, with or without economic theories to explain why it should be so. Yet in the current economic environment, it is gratifying to see that the Austrian theory of cycles, and boom and bust, is gaining a wider audience as the equity bubbles burst. With the credit bubble still growing – as chronicled so brilliantly each week by Doug Noland on The Prudent Bear web site – it would appear likely that the Austrian theories will gain a growing audience as the final chapters of the bubble unfold, and the hard realities of the bust become impossible to ignore.

more....

[Maeve]

13. Not so cheerful today

I lost internet for a few hours, but I'm back. Good news on the shopping front but not-so-good elsewhere--consumer confidence down a tad, sales of previously owned homes down, manufacturing (Chicago) down, cattle with possible BSE up....no surprise that the markets are also down. Currently:

Dow 10,424.00 -26.00 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq 2,001.94 -4.54 (-0.23%)
S&P 500 1,107.88 -1.60 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.293% +0.063

[KoKo]

17. Also concerning retail, it seems as though when the Christmas Eve rush

to spend last minute is factored in with all of December, the numbers are not so great. Target Stores was used as an example with good last week Christmas sales but factored into the rest of the month they were only slightly elevated. Heard this on CNBC which contradicts the headlines that this was the "biggest shopping season since 1999."

Also, they had a report about housing which seemed very fair. It's not as great as the hype reports are saying. Austin, TX is almost at the bottom for Housing Sales. Blamed it on the Tech Bubble which caused high unemployment. Said there are "pockets" in US where housing might be in decline. Very different from the reports that housing is still barreling along.

Interesting how Financial News is being spun the same as National/International. Depends on what you hear or read and then you have to decide whether you are a "Bull or Bear," or just want to stay the hell out of the market.

[Maeve]

18. My take is that the shoppers waited for the sales

Which means lower profits, even if there was more volume.

Oh, yeah, the financial news is spun--we try to parse the info a bit here so DUers get a feel for the real. But there are days when we need to bring out this gif:

[KoKo]

22. Great graphic. Describes it perfectly.

:D

[mrsteve]

14. 1:10 - Hello Marketeers, how is everybody?

Looks like I picked an economically gloomy day to come back. Volumes are down, though, as per a normal vacation week, thus we can't give complete credence to any major movements.

At least that's what the pundits say.

At 1:10, here's the current story - eveyone's a little into the red, while money moves into the 10 year bonds.

Dow 10,424.52 -25.48 (-0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,001.76 -4.72 (-0.24%)
S&P 500 1,108.18 -1.30 (-0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.288% +0.058

(on edit - typo fixed - I gotta start using that nifty spell checker, eh?)

[mrsteve]

15. And a bit of Yahoo Fi wisdom

..to put it all into perspective :boring:

"1:00PM: The market remains stuck in a rut, unable to cross the unchanged mark in the afternoon session... Down volume is close to outpacing up volume at the NYSE and Nasdaq, and market internals are similarly unsupportive to the bulls... Volume has been light for the day, with the Nasdaq showing less than 900 mln shares exchanged hands... Volume should continue to run at anemic rates throughout the course of the week, with the New Year holiday falling on Thursday and leading traders to take long weekends...
The bond market has been likewise uneventful as treasuries have registered modest losses across the yield curve..."

[54anickel]

16. Question?

I am still trying to grasp how this whole global market thing works.

Let's assume that China stops buying our debt with the US dollars it has been getting paid for their exports to them (Treasuries, Fannie Mae, Ginny Mae, etc).

Instead they take those dollars and trade them in for Euros, (CDs, bonds, whatever). Does that stick the ECB with those unwanted dollars?

[mbperrin]

20. They're not stuck, per se; the just discount the dollar some more

to show an immediate net on the transaction. Ultimately, the US gets stuck with "unwanted" dollars.

So a switch to the Euro from the dollar by China would speed up the current devaluation.

[54anickel]

23. So they are repatriated to the US thru currency exchange and

do not "move" the deficit dollars to the ECB account?

[mbperrin]

25. Right! That's what a hedge fund is designed to do -

minimize downside risk!

[Maeve]

21. 2:02 and remaining range-bound under water

Dow 10,425.55 -24.45 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq 2,003.30 -3.18 (-0.16%)
S&P 500 1,108.15 -1.33 (-0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.275% +0.045

[54anickel]

24. Dollar update Just broke below 87, 85 next week?

Last trade 86.96 Change -0.39 (-0.45%)
High 87.42 Low 86.94

[54anickel]

28. Feb meeting of the G7 could be quite interesting......

http://money.cnn.com/2003/12/30/news/international/euro_g7.reut/

G7 to discuss dollar's slide

Falling currency has some finance ministers from the Group of Seven richest countries concerned.
December 30, 2003: 10:07 AM EST



BERLIN (Reuters) - Finance ministers from the Group of Seven richest nations will discuss the dollar's slide when they meet in February, as Europeans become increasingly worried it may hurt economic recovery, a G7 source said Tuesday.

A euro level clearly higher than $1.20 could not be good for Europe's economy, while a level of $1.30 represented a "pain barrier," the source said.

A stronger single currency, which broke the $1.25 barrier for the first time Monday, can erode the euro zone's competitiveness by making goods produced there more expensive to customers outside the 12-nation region.

But the source said the United States should also not be happy with a sharply weaker dollar, which could lead to a flight of capital from the country, depressing stock markets and pushing up long-term interest rates.


Nice way to say that Greenspan is NUTS :crazy:

[mrsteve]

26. 2:50 - Nasdaq breaks upward, Dow unchanged

Nasdaq near opening numbers going into the last hour.

Dow 10,427.26 -22.74 (-0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,005.82 -0.66 (-0.03%)
S&P 500 1,108.68 -0.80 (-0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.281% +0.051

[Maeve]

27. 3:36 and taking a plunge

Polar Bear Club time, I guess! Brrr....

Dow 10,408.67 -41.33 (-0.40%)
Nasdaq 2,002.09 -4.39 (-0.22%)
S&P 500 1,107.44 -2.04 (-0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.279% +0.049

[Maeve]

29. Fake out! Bounce back!

:eyes: Ah the day-traders and the holiday games!

Dow 10,416.59 -33.41 (-0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,004.50 -1.98 (-0.10%)
S&P 500 1,108.66 -0.82 (-0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.279% +0.049

[Maeve]

31. Final figures--Nasdaq went black, Dow remained red

Dow 10,425.04 -24.96 (-0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,009.89 +3.41 (+0.17%)
S&P 500 1,109.62 +0.14 (+0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.279% +0.049

[mrsteve]

33. Funny - not much change from 2:50 numbers

Guess the last hour was a lot of light with little heat.

See all the usual suspects in the casino tomorrow!

[54anickel]

32. Break the water line and come up for air before the finals?

[54anickel]

30. Dollar update trying hard to rise to 87, but no cigar! BoJ confirms they

spent a record 20.057 trillion yen intervening in the foreign exchange market this year to keep the yen from rising too sharply.

http://www.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/index.cfm?story=ON-20031230-000489-0949


Last trade 86.96 Change -0.39 (-0.45%)
High 87.42 Low 86.90