Exit poll says Labor to win, PM to lose seat

[Swagman]

Source: news.com.au

Major exit poll points to Labor winning election
Poll also finds Prime Minister may lose his seat

A MAJOR exit poll of voters in today's federal election predict Kevin Rudd will be the next prime minister of Australia and that John Howard will lose his seat of Bennelong.
November 24, 2007 04:45pm

The Sky News exit poll taken in 31 key seats predicts a two-party preferred result of 53 per cent to Labor to 43 per cen to the Coalition.

It also predicts John Howard will lose his seat of Bennelong and that Eden-Monaro, the traditional bellwether seat which has changed hands with each change of government 1974, will be comfortably won by Labor.

Actual voting trends in the election 2007 are expected to become clear within 30 minutes of the 6pm close of polling in Australia's eastern states tonight.



Read more: http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22813391-2,00.html

[Bolo Boffin]

1. "Actual voting trends in the election 2007 are expected to become clear within 30 minutes"

God, I remember when America was like that.

[saltpoint]

2. O yes.

[Andrushka]

3. All I can say is:

WOOOO-HOOO!!

Looking at live results about to come in here: http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/

Listening (for a laugh) to RRR's 'Roll out the Pork Barrel' coverage here: http://www.rrr.org.au/

And about to crack open a beer here: My house!

:toast: :applause:

[cboy4]

4. Australia takin out the trash!!

:party:

[Andrushka]

5. I reckon

This should be the official DU Howard death-watch thread. What say you all?

Here's hoping my American DU friends wake up today to see some good news from my neck of the woods!!

(on edit: said "wake up tomorrow" but of course it will be "today" - duh!)

[Barrett808]

6. I say aye

This may be premature, but even so I want to congratulate our Aussie friends for getting it done.

[magellan]

7. Exit polls showed Gore winning, too

Funny how that didn't work out. I'll refrain from congratulating the Aussies till the final results are posted.

[YvonneCa]

39. Kerry/Edwards...

...too.

[Progressive Friend]

8. Another top Iraq War criminal is losing political power

First in Spain, then in Italy and now in Australia.

[Endangered Specie]

9. Ah, you know you are true political nerd if...

you are following a foreign election on a Friday night. :)

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. You forgot after turkey day

:-)

Still it is a good thing...if the polls maintain

[Dudley_DUright]

37. And even nerdier if you get up super early on Saturday

to check the returns. ;-)

[Andrushka]

10. Live TV streaming

ABC has it here: http://www.abc.net.au/streaming/election.asx (click or paste into WMP)

I will be leaving it on to see Howard's concession speech. Oh, I have waited for this day for a LONG time.

[Andrushka]

12. Some good, some bad news

The good: Howard's seat is slightly now leaning Labour (woo-hoo!)

The bad: Ruddock has been re-elected. Arsehole.

[canetoad]

13. Kerry O'Brien on ABC

just called Bennelong for Maxine McKew.

[Lasher]

14. Ha ha, Howard's going down.

SYDNEY (AFP) — Australian Prime Minister John Howard will be defeated decisively in Saturday's general elections, according to an exit poll taken for television channel Sky news.

The poll in key marginal seats gave Kevin Rudd's centre-left Labor Party 53 percent of the vote against 47 percent for Howard's conservative Liberal-National coalition, Sky news said.

The results, if backed up in the final tally, would give the 50-year-old Rudd a commanding majority in parliament.

The exit poll also showed Howard would lose his own seat of Bennelong in Sydney, which would make him the first prime minister to suffer such a humiliation in 78 years.

Howard, 68, has held the seat since 1974 and has been prime minister since 1996.

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5h7GwBtZKEeA0B3UyM2Wj9W1Zl2Kw

So what will happen? Will Rudd get Australian troops out of Iraq?

[Kaotac]

15. WAHOO!

Just saw on Sky News that McKew is ahead of Howard even before prefferences and they just said that Labor is getting preferences at a rate of 2:1.
They also just called Lindsey for Labor.

[Andrushka]

16. Yes

Bennelong is 17% gone and he's looking likely to be given the arse by a small margin, but who-the-fark cares!!

Greens looking good to keep balance of power in senate, but early days for the upper house count. Hope they can get another two in (on top of the two they have there now)

[Kaotac]

20. Senate?

Where do you get counts on the Senate? No TV coverage is mentioning it and I want to know how Dr. Karl is going.

[Andrushka]

26. No figures

Just heard one of their guys on radio. Also a bit of wishful thinking!

Hope Dr Karl gets in, too!!

[Kaotac]

27. I voted #1 Dr. Karl..

Which meant also voting for #2-#79.. Was worth it if Dr. Karl gets in.
Go Senator Dr. Karl! WOOOO! *crosses fingers*

[Andrushka]

28. Good stuff

Senate results coming in now, and I am wrapped! My man Richard di Natale is Victoria's first Green senator!!

:beer: :woohoo: :woohoo:

You bloody beauty!!

[Matilda]

17. Labor currently on track to win a possible 20 seats.

That will allow them to form government with a definite majority.

It's encouraging that the Green vote is well up everywhere, so a strong
possibility that this can translate into a couple of extra Senate seats,
and the balance of power.

Nobody seriously calling Bennelong yet, but Howard's in trouble.

[Andrushka]

19. Hey Matilda!

Was wondering when you'd show!

Look, it's looking very good all round, all given. My seat (Deakin) is swinging 6.8% to Labour - incredible stuff.

Her's hoping di Natale gets a Green seat for Vic - that'd REALLY make my night!

[Matilda]

21. I'm starting to get a warm glow from the figures.

It's interesting that of all the doubtful seats, the Libs are ahead in
only two.

I don't think we're going to have a hung parliament.

[Nutmegger]

18. Exit polls showed a Kerry win too. They don't mean jack shit!

:sarcasm::crazy::sarcasm:

[Matilda]

23. We're lucky in one important regard -

we vote with pencils and paper, and no machines for people to tamper
with.

Plenty of dirty tricks during the campaign, but the elections are
overseen by the neutral Australian Electoral Commission, and no political
party controls the organisation of the elections, or the counting of
votes. There is strict, bi-partisan scrutiny, and if we can feel
confident about one thing, it is that the votes are counted honestly.

[Kaotac]

33. Heh..

And the Senate is really safe.. There's no way to dispose of those paper table cloths.
Problem is for the future, that doesn't the law say the ballots have to be kept? So all that paper can't be recycled.

[Swagman]

22. another 30 minutes and Howard is gone!!!

booted out of his own seat..another war criminal bites the dust.

[canetoad]

24. They're backpedalling on Bennelong now

Gap is closing. Howard could still win.

[Matilda]

25. Antony Green (the god of elections) is calling 79 seats for Labor.

He's cautious, and this is looking very, very good.

Howard losing Bennelong would be very sweet, but for some reason, there
was a high (40%) postal vote, which could change everything. They just
can't call it at this stage.

It is interesting that the only time a sitting PM has lost his seat,
Stanley Bruce in around 1926, it was because of Industrial Relations.
Howard should have studied history.

[Matilda]

29. The swing to Labor is now 6%,

comfortably above what they need to win government.

70% of votes counted, so this looks solid.

Oh, how I long to see the look on Howard's face ....

Edit to add: Maxine McKew is now on a swing of 5% with 66% counted -
my God, she could do it!!

[Andrushka]

30. I have a beer here

I have been saving for the moment!! That speech can't come too soon (just, hope he lets me get the kids into bed beforehand - I don't want to be reading to them when the moment comes!!)

[Matilda]

31. We have a nice bottle of Cloudy Bay Champagne in the fridge ...

I thought it was worth it.

[Andrushka]

32. You lucky...

Cloudy Bay - best NZ wine by a mile! :9

[Matilda]

34. Absolutely.

I thought tonight was worth splashing out.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

38. Remarkable. Stunning.

An Ozzie has a beer to celebrate with. This strange, one-off occurance could be the start of a trend. ;-)

Congratulations on taking out the trash.

[xchrom]

35. well -- this is going to set some conservative hair on fire --

and i'll enjoy watching the show.

[anakie]

36. Hi all

How good is it??