NC-Sen, NC-Pres: Obama leads by 2, Hagan by 8

[iandhr]

Source: Daily Kos

Public Policy Polling. 9/27-28. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/17-19 numbers)

Hagan (D) 46 (46)
Dole (R) 38 (41)
Cole (R) 6 (6)


Public Policy Polling. 9/27-28. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/17-19 numbers)

Obama (D) 47 (46)
McCain (R) 45 (46)

Read more: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/29/192223/301/414/614889

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Who Would have thunk it that a Democrat would have a chance to knock off Dole but we see time and again a strong showing from Kay Hagan in the polls.


On the Pres side it says Obama is up two. I think is possible in this case that the Bradley Effect is in play here.

What to you all think

[McCCain4retirment]

1. I think NC just thinks barack is a better leader

no bradley effect

[Doctor_J]

2. This is Hugh

If we can recover some Dixiecrats that we lost to Reagan, our reign will be long and successful. The Left Coast & Rust Belt & NE will never turn red again in my lifetime, so if we can bring in NC & VA & MO & IA our supermajority won't be far off

[Kingofalldems]

3. I am series!!!11!!11

Just a couple weeks ago Obama down by umpteen in N.C. What a turnaround.

[nyy1998]

4. fivethirtyeight.com actually looked at the bradely effect

And says that while it exist in numerous states, there's actually a reverse Bradley Effect in the South especially during the primaries. so Obama might be up by more actually.

P.S. Go Obama!(and go Jets!)

[iandhr]

5. Absoultey...

J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS

[Tutonic]

6. Don't they have early voting in North Carolina? If so this could be

a big week for Obama/Biden.

[Historic NY]

7. Lot of northern transplants there especially retired professionals.

[unc70]

9. Many transplants more conservative/Repub than locals

Many of the transplants from the North to NC are actually more likely to vote Repub than the locals -- particularly in down-ballot races. We still have many "Reagan Dems" who vote Repub for president.

Many of the transplants are whites from places like OH, PA, NJ and they often vote Repub. Raleigh/Wake County is a good example of this trend. The locals under about 50 always went to integrated schools in NC and do not have the same level of phobia of Black candidates.

Hagen is a bigger surprise to me.

[mnhtnbb]

8. I've been saying it--we're gonna' turn NC Blue! My freshman son

at UNC-Chapel Hill (already registered) said Dem registrars were going through the dorms
and registering all the students.

NC has lots of colleges/universities. If the Dems can turnout the student vote Obama has
an excellent chance!