STOCK MARKET WATCH THREAD--Monday July 28, 2003--#1

[Maeve]

Monday, July 28, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 543
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 258
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 230 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 288 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 130
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 614
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 0
Other Arrests of Execs = 53


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS

NASDAQ FUTURES...........S&P FUTURES



AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 25, 2003
Dow 9,284.57 172.06 (1.89%)
Nasdaq 1,730.70 29.28 (1.72%)
S&P 500 998.68 17.08 (1.74%)
10-Yr Bond 4.209% +0.031
Gold futures…363.70 0.90
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DOW…........NASDAQ…......S&P (auto-update, hit refresh/reload)


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details &
links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more,
are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actionsCitizens For Legitimate Government
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[Maeve]

1. Heat Exhaustion

August is around the corner, and the market could get sleepy. Watch out.
July 28, 2003: 8:28 AM EDT
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Senior Writer
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - More often than not as we head into August markets get into a muddle, where it can be difficult to figure out what's driving them. Or, in fact, whether anything is driving them at all.
It can be a difficult time for investors -- dangerous, if they're not careful.
It's not hard to figure out why the market tends to head into a funk in the late summer. As second-quarter earnings season winds down, plenty of investors pack up the family in the car, put Barney into the CD player and go. And this is a global phenomenon. In Japan, their heading home for Obon; in France it's Aout Vacance. And suddenly, there is a dearth of new ideas, old ideas exhaust themselves and markets becomes themeless
Story

[Maeve]

2. Premarket blather

8:55AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.5. Futures trade retains the bulk of its gains, and continues to suggest that the major indices will start the day on a positive note... Impressive gains on the Asian (Tokyo's Nikkei +2.0%) and European (France's CAC 40 +2.0%) markets, analyst upgrades of DIS and T (see Upgrades/Downgrades for full ratings changes), and a round of mostly better than expected earnings reports have laid the groundwork for the uptick at the open
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

And a good Monday, marketeers! Another gray day here in Central Ohio, but if that means it stays cooler next weekend, I'm happy (got an outdoor festival coming up and last year it was near 100 all three days!)

Which way today? :shrug: The futures haven't been much of a predictor lately and the political landscape is land-mined....

:donut::donut::donut::donut:

[JNelson6563]

3. Happy Monday All

Mornin' Maeve and all--

More flowers and sunshine on the Street today eh? Hmmmm. I hafta wonder 'bout that.

Glad to see the Nikkei up again, poor Japan.

Hope you had a good weekend-

Julie

[Maeve]

4. 9:34 and we're off--so is the market

Dow 9,276.17 -8.40 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq 1,729.83 -0.87 (-0.05%)
S&P 500 997.80 -0.88 (-0.09%)

[Maeve]

5. 9:40--that's better!

Dow 9,296.13 +11.56 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 1,737.04 +6.34 (+0.37%)
S&P 500 1,000.24 +1.56 (+0.16%)

[Maeve]

6. 9:49 and WORSE!

Gee, make up yer minds, traders!
Dow 9,261.04 -23.53 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,729.81 -0.89 (-0.05%)
S&P 500 996.13 -2.55 (-0.26%)

[Maeve]

7. 10 o'clock bounce gives us mixed markets

Dow 9,254.53 -30.04 (-0.32%)
Nasdaq 1,731.89 +1.19 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 995.80 -2.88 (-0.29%)

[JNelson6563]

8. I get the feeling

it will take next to nothing to send this market to the extreme in either direction.

We live in some crazy, uncertain times!

Julie

[joshcryer]

9. Hmm, I figure we'll have late buying.

But who knows.

[Maeve]

10. 10:48 and still mixed

Dow 9,266.09 -18.48 (-0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,735.06 +4.36 (+0.25%)
S&P 500 997.57 -1.11 (-0.11%)

[JNelson6563]

11. everytime I glance at it

it's in another position. Crazy!

Man, did you get a look at those treasury yields??? Holy cow!!

Julie

[Maeve]

12. 11:26 and back in black

Dow 9,295.08 +10.51 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,739.35 +8.65 (+0.50%)
S&P 500 999.82 +1.14 (+0.11%)

[JNelson6563]

13. high noon and lookin' dark

ok, I'm not high and it's a bit after noon but ya get the jist of it:

12:05


Dow 9,264.48 -20.09 (-0.22%)
Nasdaq 1,732.53 +1.83 (+0.11%)
S&P 500 996.18 -2.50 (-0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 4.262% +0.084

Look at that 10yr!!!

Well, I'm off to spend buckets of money on groceries for our cottage visit and general stocking the shelves.......I'm no Maeve but maybe it will help the economy. ;-)

Back in a bit--
Julie

[Capn Sunshine]

14. OUCH

As you all may or maynot be aware over the weekend the Philippine Financial district was briefly seized by Army troops in a coup attempt.

This bit of news prompted a lot of us over the weekend to put spread trades on in the overnights around the various markets affected by the immediate possibility of political unrest in the PI

Unwinding these cautionary trades provokes a lot of selling in the ten year which in turn crossed magic number that triggers a computer/institutional trade for anyone holding Mortgage backed Securities, called a convex; you have to hedge you MBS by selling the long end of the curve.


This accelerates the selling and that's what's up with the 10 yr. this am. It aint pretty but we are looking at some ponderous monster future activity that is overwrought and overdone; basic math gives you a too far too soon too fast variable on the VIX of the 10 yr; I am looking for a retracement (aka dead cat bounce) here and am buying on the way down ---with a very short leash.
IF we live another day, I'll get back to you;
If not, please pry my smoking hands from the keyboard and have them bronzed as a warning to future generations not to tease the dragon.

[Maeve]

15. I'm not sure I understood all of that

But best wishes! Eeek...

[JNelson6563]

17. hang in there Cap'n

we'll get these thugs out of power ASAP!

I thought it was a "too far too soon too fast" thing with the 10yrs.

I don't think we'll be pryin' your hands from anything soon, oh dragon slayer. ;-)

Let us know how you survive the day......

Julie--who likes the idea of "teasing the dragon"

[Maeve]

16. 2:06 and well.....

I did my part--I went out to shop--but DOW and S&P are still slightly underwater.
Dow 9,282.26 -2.31 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 1,737.00 +6.30 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 998.55 -0.13 (-0.01%)

[JNelson6563]

18. same here Maeve

and I took my two plus an extra kid with me so I spent waaaaay too much money at the grocery store. I thought it merited at least a head-above-water status on the DOW but I guess not.

On the bright side, my son--the mathematician/science guy-is starting to get into this market watching business. :-) He's eleven. When we got home I wondered aloud how the markets are doing and he offered to check. Was reporting it all to me as I unpacked and belted out orders to the others. This kid's got promise I tell you.

I'm hoping to get him to the Senate someday. I hope to keep my daughter out of the papers.....haha

Julie

[Maeve]

19. Gee, turn away for an hour and OOOOoooooooo......

Dow 9,249.64 -34.93 (-0.38%)
Nasdaq 1,733.96 +3.26 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 995.09 -3.59 (-0.36%)

[Maeve]

20. Final numbers for the day

"Listless" is how some describe the day...others opt for "dull"
Could have been worse!

Dow 9,266.51 -18.06 (-0.19%)
Nasdaq 1,735.34 +4.64 (+0.27%)
S&P 500 996.52 -2.16 (-0.22%

[JNelson6563]

21. today's word: troublesome

I think things are going to go downhill quickly. I have heard one too many talkingheads announce that the reason the 2nd quarter numbers were pretty decent was cost cutting measures, not increased business. Duh! We've been saying that abuot decent earnings reports all year. Again, DU ahead of the curve.

BTW, man did the treasuries end up taking even a worse beating than earlier!!! Ouch!! More to come, stock up on the morphine for pain.

Dr. Julie

[Maeve]

22. Late story/commentary of interest

The Market's Been Stuck Since June
Stocks haven't gone much of anywhere since June. Where they go next could matter a lot.
July 28, 2003: 3:54 PM EDT
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Senior Writer
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Lately it seems like the stock market's get up and go got up and went.

The market hasn't been bad, exactly, it's just that it hasn't done much of anything at all. After rampaging higher through the spring, stocks are stuck. The S&P 500 has been tarrying near the 1000 level ever since June, breaching it for a few days and then falling right through.

"Face it, the market really hasn't made much progress," said Larry Rice, vice president at Janney Montgomery Scott. "Maybe it's telling you to err on the side of caution."

At the very least, it's telling you that investors are finding few fresh incentives to buy.
<more and worth checking out>

[radfringe]

23. stores are jumping on the child tax credit checks

that only a some people will get... had to do some shopping yesterday and there are signs in various stores ofering to CASH their child credit checks FREE....

Meanwhile, AWOL was in Pittsburgh PA, polishing up the old Compassionate conservative bushit... He "complained" that too many people are without jobs, but didn't mention that he was the cause. He "complained" that too many people don't have decent houses, and didn't mention that he contributed that that situation....

With the California Recall of Gov. Davis going on, it looks like an unofficial kick off for a repug 2004 campaign. One of the big gripes is the California economy and budget deficits. Looks like a good time for some DEM Presidential candidates to run a simultaneous campaign in California to point out how bad the national economy is and how large the national deficits have grown and how this has effected California and other states. I think all they will have to do is to take the repug gov. candidates speeches, replace Davis's name with Bush's name.... :)

August doldrums and dog days will soon hit the markets... 9-11 report is raising more questions than answers, WMD's are still missing as is Saddam and Bin-Laden, our soldiers are still dying while AWOL is still lying. The Phillipines, in all likelyhood, will erupt again... and then there's Liberia, North Korea, Syria and Iran. AWOL will be in Crawford working on the new product for September. Our manufacturing sectors are bleeding jobs, and other sectors are outsourcing jobs to overseas locations.

Repugs are saying the economy is recovering... my question is Who will survive the "republican" recovery?

MAGIC 8-BALL - looks like with the various socio-political unrest around the world, and being the end of the month - this weeks markets will be on a teeter-totter, ups and downs as buyers and sellers try to find some balance.

Next month wll bring more of the same in anticipation of AWOL's new "product". Look for more speeches emphasizing compassionate conservatism... this is the turning point for him as he moves his public face away from the right and more to the middle... DEM's have to be ready for it,and point out that in his compassionate conservatism bushit that jobs are lost, programs (such as head start) have been cut, states are running deficits, fed is in record breaking deficits and get on the message of "Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?"