Siena poll: NY-23 race too close to call

Joanne98

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Sat Oct-31-09 10:31 AM
Original message

Siena poll: NY-23 race too close to call

Source: Post Standard

Washington – The campaign for the 23rd Congressional District seat has turned into a two-person race that is too close to call only days before the election, according to an independent poll released today.

Democrat Bill Owens (36 percent) and Conservative Doug Hoffman (35 percent) have emerged as the frontrunners, the Siena College poll of likely voters found.

At the same time, Republican Dede Scozzafava – the early frontrunner – has seen her support sink to 20 percent of likely voters, the Siena Research Institute poll found.

Scozzafava, a state Assemblywoman and the only candidate in the race with political experience, was favored by 35 percent at the start of October, when she led the pack.

“Unfortunately for Assemblywoman Scozzafava, this has become a two-person race between Owens and Hoffman,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said in a statement today.

The poll found Hoffman’s strongest support in the district comes from Central New York, where he is favored by 44 percent of voters to 33 percent for Owens.

Scozzafava, a social moderate who supports same-sex marriage and abortion rights, was favored by only 12 percent in Central New York, down from 20 percent in mid-October.

The Central New York portion of the district encompasses all of Oswego and Madison counties, and a portion of Oneida County. The 11-county district stretches from the counties surrounding Syracuse to the Canadian border and east to the Adirondacks.

Owens continued to draw his strongest support from likely voters in the eastern part of the district (46 percent), and Scozzafava polled strongest near her home region in Jefferson, Lewis and St. Lawrence counties.

The telephone poll of 704 likely voters in the 23rd Congressional District was conducted Tuesday through Thursday. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

With only three days until the election, Greenberg said the difference will likely come down to whether Owens or Hoffman does a better job getting their voters to the polls on Tuesday.

Greenberg said there is also a strong possibility that the election will not be decided on Election Day.

“Given the tightness of the race and the need to count every vote, however, including those from the military, it is certainly possible that the victory party will have to be delayed beyond Tuesday night,” Greenberg said.

Military ballots must be postmarked by Nov. 2, but a new state law allows more time for the ballots to be received from overseas. As a result, elections officials must count any properly postmarked military ballot received by Nov. 16.

The Siena poll found Owens continued to build steady momentum this week, particularly among Democratic and independent voters. He now has the support of 66 percent of Democrats and 35 percent of independents.

Hoffman gained momentum with voters from almost every demographic, except Democrats. His strongest gains were among Republican, younger and Catholic voters.

All three candidates plan an aggressive schedule of appearances across the district leading up to Tuesday’s election.

Gov. George Pataki will fly to Syracuse today, where he plans to campaign with Hoffman in Madison County.

Vice President Joe Biden will fly into Watertown on Monday morning for a “get out the vote” rally with Owens

Read more: http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2009/10/siena_poll_ny-23_race_too_clos.html

LOL. Wouldn't it be nice to kick Palin's ass again?