Poll shows Nader could hurt Kerry in Pennsylvania

[joeunderdog]

HARRISBURG, Pa. - Ralph Nader's presence in the presidential race could hurt Sen. John Kerry's chances of beating President Bush in Pennsylvania, according to a poll released Wednesday.

In the three-way race, Republican Bush is supported by 44 percent of the state's voters, compared with 40 percent for Democrat Kerry and 7 percent for Nader, who is running as an independent, according to the poll by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. Eight percent were undecided.

Without Nader in the race, Kerry and Bush would be running even - with 45 percent and 44 percent respectively - and 7 percent of the voters were undecided, the poll found.

While Nader's candidacy would draw some Democratic and Republican votes away from Kerry - and none from Bush - the biggest effect would be among the independents who support the Massachusetts senator, the poll indicated. Forty-eight percent of the independents said they would back Kerry if Bush were the only alternative, but that dropped to 38 percent with Nader in the mix.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/politics/8207298.htm

[mac56]

1. Can Ralph even get on the ballot in Pennsylvania?

This may be much ado about nothing.

[lancdem]

2. I hope he can't

I live in PA and didn't realize it's hard to get on the ballot here. Another poster brought that up.

[PaDUer]

3. This was in our local paper this weekend..

Why Democrats need to fear Nader, Greens

For now, the Green Party of Pennsylvania is gathering signatures on nominating petitions to put two of its own up for president and vice president on the November statewide election ballot.

http://www.scrantontimes.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=11117428&BRD=2185&PAG=461&dept_id=415898&rfi=8

[Stuckinthebush]

4. This is a beautiful example of poor polling methods

And/Or the margin of error in action.

In 2000, Ralph Nader received 103392 votes out of 4913119 in PA. That is 2.1% of the total. In 2000, Ralph Nader had a great deal of support, name recognition, and a generally positive image. We heard the false assertion that Bush and Gore were exactly alike, and so the vote for true progressives was a vote for Nader. Many believed that rhetoric and voted for Nader.

Jump forward 3 1/2 years. It is clear to all progressives that Gore and Bush would never have been the same. Most progressives see the massive stakes in this election year. Many Nader voters in 2000 have said that they will not vote for him this time because of the stakes. With this in mind, I do not see how Ralph Nader has miraculously picked up another 1/4 of a million votes in PA. There is no way that Nader picked up 250,000 votes - in fact, there is no way he will get 103392 votes in PA this time.

Bad poll --- throw it in the poll scrap heap because you will see better numbers from the next polls to come out.

[Timefortruth]

7. The Nader results have been all over the place in most polls.

It is very strange.

How anyone who cares about the future of this country could sacrifice that future to make a statement about the two party system is beyond me. Nader is almost certainly on the Republican payroll, he certainly doesn't care about the country.

[Merlin]

15. That's a damn fine analysis! However it may suggest other problems.

I totally agree with you. Thanks for going the extra rational mile to pert this out. The only way I can see them coming up with this is by including large portions of the non-voting, citizen drop-out corps which, as we know, comprises over a third of the electorate. In other words, they're polling people who are not truly "probable voters."

If what you say is accurate, though, then I'm concerned about their Bush v Kerry breakdown. In other words, when you drop these people out, does it not suggest that Bush is then up by several points in PA?

[CityDem]

5. Big trouble if true

If Kerry is having trouble in Pennsylvania, he is in big trouble.

[neverborn]

26. Nah

PA is the only blue state trending red.

[moondust]

6. Keeping Nader in the race is a cornerstone of the Bunk* campaign.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Rove machine is telling Repigs to answer "Nader" when the pollsters call to make sure Ralph gets plenty of encouragement.

[tom_paine]

8. Polls showing Nader getting 7% are bullshit

Though it wouldn't surprise me to see it happen in Diebold States (the Busbeviks have to keep updating their cheating methodologies in order to confuse the victims).

[peachy]

9. Dems should welcome Nader

In my opinion the Dems in disrespecting Nader and critising his choice to run are only hurting themselves. I think Kerry would win big points and some supporters too if he openly welcomed Nader into the race and invited him to participate in three way debates this summer.

It seems like every time Kerry or someone in his camp makes a strong statement against Bush, Kerry seems to run from it shortly after. Wouldn't Kerry do better to embrace the Nader campaign and echo the parts of that campaign that he can agree with. Like this:

http://www.votenader.org/issues/index.php
The quagmire of the Iraq war and occupation could have been averted and needs to be ended expeditiously, replacing US forces with a UN peacekeeping force, prompt supervised elections and humanitarian assistance before we sink deeper into this occupation, with more U.S. casualties, huge financial costs, and diminished US security around and from the Islamic world. The faulty and fabricated rationale for war has the US in a quagmire. Already more than $155 billion has been spent, adding to huge Bush deficits, when critical needs are not being met at home. We should not be mired in the occupation of Iraq risking further upheavals when our infrastructure, schools and health care are deteriorating. Four years of free public college and university tuition for all students could be paid for by $155 billion.

[Rowdyboy]

10. In a word, HELL NO!

No to Nader in debates. He is nothing but a spoiler. Why not add representatives of all the minor parties (there are dozens). He speaks for a miniscule number of people and does not deserve representation on a national stage.

To give him equal acess elevates him from obscurity to even with the serious candidates. Thats not right. Its unfair to the greens, socialist, communists, constitution party, reform party, reform party II, libertarian and all the other minor parties. He deserves no more public acess than any of them, and they don't have any business debating the real candidates...

He has not earned that respect.

[gone fishing]

14. i say yes, another

person on the podium going after bush can only help the cause.
i respect nader's opinions. he's saved more lives than either bush
or kerry by getting the corvair off the roads.

[Tuttle]

18. Are you lost?

Nader is responsible (by proxy) for the loss of at least 4,000 American lives if you count the 9-11, Afghan and Iraq bdoy counts.

I prefer my chances in a Corvair to giving Bush another four years of planetary destruction!

Tut-tut

[Momof1]

11. Bullshit. Gore won this state in 2000. What the hell is Nader

going to do to bring back jobs? Good thing the Heinz ketchup factory is in Pennsylvania.... duh.

[LynneSin]

12. Dems have won PA for the last several prez elections

This is a bullshit poll to frighten dems

[peachy]

13. But it does frighten them and it shouldn't

I came back to the Dems this year after defecting to the greens, now with Kerry as the almost sure nominee I'm wondering if I should have done it. Apparently the Dems still have learned that they would do themselves better by moving back to the left. Am I going to have to go through another campaign season listening to the democratic candidate tell us how he'd do the same things as shrub only better???

Get a spine!

[mndemocrat_29]

16. John Kerry is one of the most liberal senators in the country

[Merlin]

17. Only the most incredibly naive people in the world think Kerry ~ Bush

I'm tired of hearing that Kerry is pretty much Bush lite, "just like Gore." They were wrong about Gore. They're wrong about Kerry.

Where in the hell are the brains these people claim to have?

Are they incapable of all understanding?

Are they so godam spoiled that since Kerry isn't 100% pure Nader, he is 99% Bush?

Spoiled damn brats! Infantile idiots!

Wake up to reality, for God's sake. We're dyin' out here!!!

[creeksneakers2]

19. Other polls

have shown Nader with three to six points elsewhere. I think this is for real and its going to get worse. Nader will run as a protectionist, and that will be very popular this year.

[LiberalFighter]

20. Their poll seems to have conflicts

March 17, 2004 -- Nader rains on Kerry parade in Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll finds; Keystone State voters split between Bush-Kerry

Source: Quinnipiac Website

[PassingFair]

21. Love to see this crap. Here's my hope:

that 'Pukes will see this misinformation and get confused. They'll think, "A vote for Nader will screw up the democrats", and in their total kneejerk ignorance, they will vote for Nader, all the while thinking their screwing us.
Just a nice dream...

[Just Me]

22. Oh,...bah,...this is just more fear-factoring,...

,...that we all must dismiss. Geez. The guy is an asset is so many ways. I wish people would stop freakin'. He is,...well,...it doesn't matter what I say.

[Gopens]

23. Um, what's going on in Pennsylvania?

How can it possibly be close between Kerry-Bush there? Hasn't Shrub pretty much destroyed that state like he has Ohio?

Of course, I don't understand how it can be close anywhere.

[JCMach1]

24. Nader will hurt in ANY state that is VERY close

:(

[AlFrankenFan]

25. Shit....no offense to anyone who supports Nader

but since he came into this race he has really fucked things up for us :(

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

27. WHO ARE THESE Nader supporters?

Has anyone met one? Do these pieces even ever interview any? Who are they?