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Edited on Fri Jun-03-11 12:42 PM by karynnj
Had Gore won in 2000, and if he, through prudent policy secured the airports and planes, there would have been no 911. However, no one would have any idea what could have happened had that happened. In 2000, the tech bubble burst and the economy started to slow down. Gore would have faced a recession. We now know that Bush fueled the economy before 2004, by allowing leverage to go from 1:12 to 1:44! This led to the early stages of the housing bubble.
It is reasonable to think Gore would have taken a more prudent path. A smaller tax cut, mostly to the those who needed it and money invested to secure SS and Medicare. Sounds great now, but we don't know the future. The economy would be slowly recovering from the recession. It is possible that Gore, maybe with Kerry leading it in the Senate would have actually pushed through something to deal with global warming while simultaneously sparking the economy. But, it is likely that Jeffords would have remained a Republican and they would face a Republican controlled Senate. It is very possible that in 2002, the Democrats would have been punished for the bad economy.
By 2004, it might depend on how the economy was doing as to whether Gore would get re-elected. It is possible that the Republicans would have run Romney, campaigning that he could do better on the economy or McCain, but if he were remember, he would be seen more as the McCain of 2000 than 2004 - still a media favorite. (I suspect the media would have continued to call Gore and Leiberman bores.)
Assuming Gore pulled out a re-election, I really do not see Leiberman winning in 2008. Not to mention, he would be seen as the Leiberman of 2000, before most of his party disliked him. In addition, the Republicans would have torn him apart.
As to the other supposition, had Kerry won, it is very likely that Edwards would not have met Rielle and he would not have been running a campaign and possibly misusing funds. He would have won the sympathy of the country as Elizabeth bravely fought her cancer with him by her side. Kerry likely would have found good uses for both Edwards on some domestic issues - somewhat like Obama has used the Bidens. Kerry would have done many things to put us in a better position than we are now - and I think in 4 years he would have had us out of Iraq and Afghanistan. (and blamed for "losing" them by the Republicans.) I think he would have responded faster on the economy, but all the pieces for the disaster would have been in place before he took office. I respect Kerry more than any politician in my lifetime, but I think it likely that even if he did an incredible job and I fully believe he would have done everything he could, there is a very good chance he might not have been re-elected. No one would have known how bad it could have been. That would have left a widowed John Edwards, whose marriage would have been seen as perfect with a sad ending, as a very likely 2012 candidate - whether Kerry won a second term or not.
Oddly, given that he did not put 100% of his effort behind electing JK, there is no politician more impacted by the loss. Kerry, of course, will never be in the list of Presidents, but will be remembered as an outstanding public servant and a very good Senator. Bush would have been the second one term Bush, but he also would have not been seen to be the failure that many saw him due to that second term.
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