NYT: Blue State New Jersey May Be Trying on Shades of Purple (dead heat?)

[DeepModem Mom]

New Jersey, a Blue State, May Be Trying on Shades of Purple
By DAVID KOCIENIEWSKI

Published: September 26, 2004


TRENTON, Sept. 25 - To those who view this year's presidential race as a battle between politically polarized red and blue states, New Jersey has usually been viewed as so unquestionably Democratic that it could be colored somewhere between midnight and navy.

But after trailing Mr. Kerry by 10 points in New Jersey as recently as late August, President Bush has sustained a bounce he received after the Republican convention, and three surveys released within the past 10 days suggest that the race for New Jersey's 15 electoral votes is now a statistical dead heat....

***

As Republican strategists predicted earlier this year, the message of their convention in Manhattan, which portrayed Mr. Bush as an unflinching avenger in the war on terror, seems to have resonated in New Jersey, which lost 700 people in the 9/11 attacks, and where the gaping absence on the New York skyline is a backdrop of daily life. The state's Democrats, meanwhile, have spent the past two months buried in an avalanche of bad news: sordid corruption investigations involving Gov. James E. McGreevey's aides and contributors and Mr. McGreevey's resignation amid a sex scandal.

Beyond those local factors, Mr. Kerry's struggles in New Jersey seem to mirror national trends, in which he has lost ground among swing voters, independents and soft Democrats after the Republican National Convention. So while a majority of New Jerseyans disapprove of Mr. Bush's performance as president - and oppose his stands on issues from the war in Iraq and health care to the economy and gay marriage - Republicans succeeded in focusing the race on Mr. Bush's strongest issue: the war on terror....


http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/26/nyregion/26jersey.html

[Leilani]

1. Could this really be true?

Hard to believe....

[Eloriel]

20. What I want to know is what kind of machines they vote on there

That's the key factor IMO.

[Lexingtonian]

2. yet another journalist playing with flame bait

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com

(likely voters)
New Jersey
Bush 42%
Kerry 50%
Nader 1%
Other 1%
Undecided 6%
September 13-16, 2004

Assuming a mere 2-1 split of the Undecideds against the incumbent (it's been 5-1 in recent Presidential elections says Bob Shrum) that's a 54-44 Kerry win at very worst. Actually, Bush still has ~2% (of ~4%) 'bounce' in most states, so Kerry will probably get about the same as Gore, 57%, or a little better even.

ARG is a far more accurate pollster than the ones cited- they're all assuming a massive Christian Right turnout for Republicans in their national modelling, and it hardly needs pointing out that this is not a good assumption in New Jersey.

[shockingelk]

9. If Kerry wins OH and FL ...

And all else is the same as 2000 other than ...

Bush taking NJ, WI, NM and OR.

Kerry would win 270/268.

[nmvisitor]

14. Kerry will take NM

I know it's close, but Bush will not win New Mexico. It'll be Kerry in a squeaker.

[DeepModem Mom]

17. Thanks for posting, nmvisitor -- and welcome to DU!

[PCIntern]

3. Two words

Bull shit.

the Times has been one of Bush's major cheerleaders all the while dissing him on the Op-Ed page with a wink towards Rove. They are hoping against hope for another 4 years so that their laissez-faire (read:lazy)reporting poilcy will be vindicated.

Privately, every newspaperman and woman I know, and I know many in the Philly press and national press from 25 years of clinical practice, states that this guy is just unbelievably bad for the country. Then they all get into a room together and give him every benefit of every doubt.

Just like the gave Clinton...every single one of these folk whom I know said that the Lewinsky stuff was not particularly germane to the management of a country and then assembled in a room and blasted him for sullying the Oval Office.

They're just inadequate, fearful assholes...

[bklyncowgirl]

4. Greetings from Asbury Park...

...well Little Silver but very close.

I'm not shocked. Disturbed but not shocked.

1. For the moment Bush has convinced many voters that he is the only one who can keep them safe. New Jerseyans, many of whom commute to NYC were seriously effected by 9/11.

2. Lack of strong immediate response to Swift Boat Veterans hurt Kerry making him seem weak in the eyes of many.

3. McGreevey hurt us big time. The Republicans new campeign theme "Democrats = Corruption"

4. Republicans appear better organized. Bush/Cheney signs up all over the place along with "Democrats = Corruption" signs. Very little visible Kerry presence.

This can all change and I think it will change. Hopefully it will change in time for the election.

[aquart]

15. NJ local politics have always been corrupt.

But to assume from that that Bush has an honest administration is beyond credibility.

Buying judges doesn't mean you're honest.

[progressivebydesign]

21. Remember... Bush/Cheney signs...

Unless they are physically ON someone's lawn, by their door, they are not a sign of support. Count bumper stickers instead.

Our town has republcan signs over Democratic signs 30 to 1! However... bumper stickers is exactly the opposite. Very few people have actual candidate signs in their yards... most are on strips of public property in FRONT of people's homes and businesses.. but not put up by the property owners. The GOP has spend millions on sign placement companies to put signs everywhere. Watch the bumper stickers... signs are meaningless.

[Guaranteed]

5. Gore won NJ by 15%. Come on, folks.

God, these fucking whore are trying SO HARD.

[rfkrocks]

6. McGreevy was a disaster

and his scandals appear to be numerous-that is depressing the vote for Kerry-I believe New Jersey is going to be closer but still go our way cause Shrub has been so bad but NJ elected dems are going to hit big time

[aquart]

16. "Appear to be"???????????

Gosh, what investigation would you mean by that? Got a link, for instance?

I'm sorry, but the stench of disinformation is gagging me.

[rfkrocks]

18. this is a NYT article

I am convinced that the wiretap where McGreevy was intercepted saying Machiavelli-which was the go ahead for his approval of an open space corrupt deal is why he resigned -not because he was "gay". I feel more is going to come out and that he let the party down in a big way-I don't know the validity of the poll here and I believe NJ will stay in our column but to deny a gov resigning in the fashion that he did will not impact the state is naive at best-I am sure CT Rethugs will pay for their corrupt Gov. -below NYT Times piece



McGreevey's governorship has, in a way, been similar to his dramatic performance yesterday. His goals were noble, and some of his accomplishments laudable - like the millionaire's tax he pushed through as a partial solution to the problem of the state's huge deficit, and his efforts to protect critically important watershed areas. But the story has always been marred by ethical questions swirling around his office.

The cast of characters is long, and the details unsavory. They include a trash hauler and fund-raiser charged in a scheme to extort money from a farmer, and another fund-raiser who is accused of using a prostitute to try to silence a witness in a federal investigation. The governor, tape-recorded without his knowledge in a private meeting, was linked to one scandal when he uttered the word "Machiavelli," which prosecutors claimed was a code word. He has maintained that the use of the word was a coincidence.

In the murky politics surrounding him, being gay may be the least complicated issue Mr. McGreevey could address - and that may explain why he did not delve into the other troubles in his speech.

__________________

[JI7]

7. the Kerry team does their own internal polling

if their numbers show a problem they will do this. this happened with california in 2000 where republicans tried to claim there was a close race there and put out "questionable" polls. but the campaign had their own numbers and saw there was no need to spend resources in california. it's a good thing also since california is expensive and that would have taken away from swing states that gore won and resulted in bush winning those states.

it's also not unusual for republicans to put out fake polls showing races are closer than expected to force democrats to spend money in states they will win anyways in order to take away their spending in swing states.

[robbedvoter]

8. BS!BS! BS! NJ has the best pair of Senators in the country

as a New Yorker I admire (and envy) their voting record. mcGreevy was a good governor as well.
There os a strong dirt machine in New Jersey - as noticed during the replacement of Toricelly, nor with McGreevy. In 2000, Corzine's adversary was making calls to voters at 2 AM pretending he was from Corzine's campaign and saying the black community will appreciate their vote for Corzine
They'd love to get Kerry to leave Ohio and shore a sure thing like New Jersey. Affected by 911? Not more than NY - and we hate W with unprecedented passion.
DIRTY TRICKS! (please remember them at exit polls time)

[2Design]

10. i thought nj people were intellegent - did they all leave???

[GoldenOldie]

11. Who do you believe --- your ears or the media whores

How many people have registered to vote for the very first time? They could be of any age yet this will be the first time they will vote. We already know that the numbers registering to vote for the very first time are making records.

Those that are registering these individuals maybe and most likely from the Democrat or Republican Party. How many of them are nudging the new voter to register in their party.

I know many people that are registered in a Party yet always vote independantly. I have talked to many young, first time voters and the reason they have become involved and seem to be really up on what is happening is they are truly concerned with George Bush getting another 4-years and how it will affect them personaly: education, jobs, military, etc. They have educated themselves about this election far more than any generation that I can remember....and I am as old as dirt.

Do you beleive these polls and the talking heads, I don't. How many of these talking heads ever leave their comfortable digs in DC or NYC to talk with the average citizen. They debate and write exactly what is given to them by Rove and the Bush administration.

[robbedvoter]

12. Nope. They are there - and the kerry signs are everywhere.

This is manufactured news - like the "insecurity moms" or the "likely voters" BS

[jamesinca]

13. Fine let the polls say it

But Democracy is not a spectator sport. To all NJ Dems get out there and work. Don't write it off as media lies or spin. Turn the state for Kerry so he does not need to spend the resources there to guarantee the win there. This race is about getting our people in as much as it is about getting the malignant rat bastards out. We need to work our asses off this year. Any Dem that has an ass left, who does not look like they have a frying pan in the back of their pants did not do their job. We need it in SD, FL, CO, CA or any other state that has a Senate, House or a swing state vote coming its way. I still can do more to help. I give money to Sen. Boxer, and Daschle and some of the 527 and I register voters. I am in CA and it is considered safe but I have to work and never do I feel this year or the next that I can lie down and feel safe. I am not going to feel that CA is safe, no more than some should feel NJ will be blue in Nov. If it was a given, we would not have to have these elections and contest. Don't ever get comfortable with these malignant rat bastards.

Thanks for your time and I will get off of my soapbox now.

[progressivebydesign]

19. Bush didn't keep us safe on 9/11 WHY would he do it now?

That's something that seems to be missing in the collective intelligence of AMerican voters. Bush was on the job (actually he was on vacation!) for the 9/11 attacks! He and his administration IGNORED the pleadings and warnings by Clinton's intelligence advisors about Bin Laden and Terrorism. The Bush admin. IGNORED the Hart/Ruddman report which outlined quite clearly the threats AND reccommended a Department of HOmeland Security be set up immediately! The White House response was to SHELVE the report and say that 'Cheney would be putting together his own report and reccomendations later'. Clinton's intelligence people thwarted a major attack at the Milennium...

I think that the DVD release of F/911 will help put things back into perspective for many people.. it'll be flying off the shelves, and people will be reminded what the facts are!

How in the WORLD people could think Bush would keep them safe is beyond me... I know that broadcast television has rendered most Americans unable to think beyond a 6th grade level, but this makes no sense!