More HOGWASH from Gallup

[nine30]

Gallup is bent upon changing the election dynamics for 2004 :

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September 24, 2004
Poll: Still Close in Florida, Bush by Three Points
Single-digit leads for Bush in Iowa, West Virginia, and Nevada among likely voters


by David W. Moore

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE


PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll in Florida shows virtually no change in the presidential contest since last month, with likely voters leaning toward President George W. Bush by three percentage points. Similar polls of likely voters in Iowa, Nevada, and West Virginia also show Bush with single-digit leads of six to nine points that are just below or at the polls' respective margins of error.

Former Vice President Al Gore won Iowa in 2000 by a mere 0.3 percentage point, but the current poll shows Democratic candidate John Kerry trailing Bush by six points among likely voters, 50% to 44%.

The other three states reported here were all won by Bush in 2000, though by closer margins than what the polls now show.

Bush's 2000 margin in Florida was a mere 537 votes, not even 0.1 percentage point, while now the poll shows a 3-point advantage for Bush among likely voters and a 2-point margin among registered voters.


Nevada went for Bush in 2000 by 3.5 percentage points, but Bush has a 9-point lead in the poll among likely voters. However, among the larger group of registered voters, Bush's lead is just two points in the poll -- well within the poll's margin of sampling error.


Bush leads by six points among likely voters in West Virginia, and by nine points among registered voters. In 2000, he won the state by six points.

<snip>

http://gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=13162

[featherman]

1. Good news for Kerry if you add 8 points to Gallup numbers

Hate to lose NV by one though. Sigh.

[featherman]

5. Jeepers...I hope nobody is still taking Gallup seriously

after all that has been written about their faulty methodology on this board and many other places. I was just being facetious in the above comments 'cause I thought everybody already knew Gallup is a joke.
Example: from 2000 Oct 8 Gallup Poll: Bush 50% Gore 42%

[shraby]

2. If you counted all the

ballots that weren't counted and people turned away from the polls and taken off the rolls in Florida in 2000, Bush didn't lead the polls in Fla. Cripe he didn't even take the state.

[clydefrand]

3. Look! Most of the military in Iraq will vote for Kerry!

And look at all the relatives back here for every troop in Iraq who will be voting for Kerry. Just think how that number grows and grows! There's no way in hell Bush can win with the voter registrations up all over the country. I met a senior citizen the other day at the dems office who just heard about the increase in Medicare premiums. She was being taken to register by her daughter/granddaughter. Never voted? Don't know, but by golly when she finally heard that her premiums were going up, she got on the stick. How many more old geezers--I'm one, so I can say that, will be voting who hadn't bothered before or not for years??? I think this is going to be a landslide victory for Kerry/Edwards. Edwards is kicking ass for Kerry every day! Damn, he's not only cute as a bug in a rug--whatever the hell that means--he's got the balls to call it like it is! :bounce: :bounce:

[Leilani]

4. Thats not true about the military vote...

The military vote usually goes Repub...this time it will split...that is whats important. Kerry will get more military votes than Gore did.

The votes will come from enlisted, Guard, & reserve members.

Career types & officers will still go mostly to Shrub.

[VegasWolf]

6. Jeez!!! Another poll of "Likely Voters". These polls are all over

the map and each one claims a +- 3,4,5 percent accuracy.
BS. They are based on the same polling population of the same
three candidates!

Someone by DEFINITION is WRONG!!

BTW, in the fine print this poll says they polled 6% Spanish
speaking people. They never specify their algorithm for
what a "Likely Voter" is. Last one I saw had the algorithm
at 7 R's per 5 D's, but that was a FOX poll.

[shockingelk]

7. FOX's polls are among the more accurate IMHO

They are among the only pollsters who have had Kerry doing better among likely voters, which is what you'd expect to see with this amount of anger at the president. IE, some Rs stay home and sit this one out, more people moticated to vote against Bush.

And FOX's numbers have always been on the same curve as Zogby: http://fearofclowns.com/text/net_difference_poll_results/

[Moderator]

8. Too old for LBN

Sorry.