Prewar report saw Iraq instability

[fishface]

Douglas Jehl and David E. Sanger/NYT ~~article_owner~~
Tuesday, September 28, 2004


WASHINGTON The same intelligence unit that produced a gloomy report in July about the prospect of growing instability in Iraq warned the Bush administration about the potential costly consequences of an American-led invasion two months before the war began, according to government officials.

The estimate came in two classified reports prepared for President George W. Bush in January 2003 by the National Intelligence Council, an independent group that advises the director of central intelligence. The assessments predicted that an American-led invasion of Iraq would increase support for political Islam and would result in a deeply divided Iraqi society prone to violent internal conflict.

One of the reports also warned of a possible insurgency against the new Iraqi government or American-led forces, saying that rogue elements from Saddam Hussein's government could work with existing terrorist groups or act independently to wage guerrilla warfare, the officials said. The assessments also said a war would increase sympathy across the Islamic world for some terrorist objectives, at least in the short run, the officials said. The assessments were described by three government officials who have seen or been briefed on the documents. The officials spoke on condition that their names and agencies not be identified. None of the officials are affiliated in any way with the presidential campaigns of Bush or Senator John Kerry. The officials, who were interviewed separately, declined to quote directly from the documents, but said they were speaking in order to present an accurate picture of the prewar warnings.

The contents of the two assessments had not been previously disclosed. They were described by the officials after two weeks in which the White House has tried to minimize the council's latest report, which was prepared this summer and read by senior officials early this month.

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?file=540883.html

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