Fla.: Kerry Takes Commanding Lead in Early Voting! KERRY 56, BUSH 39!!

[Dems Will Win]

Fla.: Kerry Takes Commanding Lead in Early Voting

-SNIP-

Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney were favored by 49 percent to 46 percent for Kerry and running mate John Edwards among likely Florida voters surveyed by Quinnipiac University pollsters between last Friday and Tuesday. Independent candidate Ralph Nader received 1 percent, while 4 percent said they were still undecided.

Among 16 percent of Florida voters who said they had cast early ballots, Kerry received 56 percent of those compared to Bush's 39 percent.

"This puts the pressure on the Bush campaign to get out more votes on Election Day," Richards said.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,268 Florida registered voters, including 944 who described themselves as likely voters. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/10/29/84842.shtml

FINALLY! A REAL POLL OF ONLY 160, BUT ONE THAT ISN'T WEIGHTED. THEY JUST TOOK THE 16% FROM THE WHOLE STATE AND COUNTED THEM! AND IT'S KERRY 56, BUSH 39! THEY MUST HAVE WEIGHTED THE REST OF THE POLL LIKE CRAZY TO MAKE UP FOR ALL THE EXTRA DEMOCRATS.

LET'S GO CRUSH THESE BASTARDS AND TAKE THE HOUSE AND SENATE WHILE WE'RE AT IT

[BeatleBoot]

1. Sounds Good To Me!

[napi21]

2. Was this an exit poll?

How did they get this information? I really hope it's true, but as far as I know, no state is actually tabulating ballots prior to the close of the polls on tues.

[Dems Will Win]

6. As they were doing their regular poll, they came upon 16% already voted.

Sort of an Exit poll, but definitely the first actual numbers we've seen outside of party percentages on early voters. Since the Dems are beating the Rs on early voting, Election Day may be closer. My bet is the percentage will be roughly the same 10-15 point landslide for Kerry we're seeing here.

[Sinnerman]

3. Kerry internal polls show Kerry winning by 10 points

[goforit]

27. Now that sounds even better!!!

[Nordic]

30. and you know this ..... how?

just curious

[Sinnerman]

40. Voter Turnout Projections vs. 2000

[Catherine Vincent]

4. Newsmax?

[Dems Will Win]

7. It's Newsmax reporting on the Quinniapiac Poll!

That allows it to pass DU muster I believe.

It's the Marist College poll from NY...

[monobrau]

12. I'll be damned

I'm amazed that it would be there, but I'll take that bit of good news!

[Mabus]

23. Just think of Tyson

after the Tyson-Lewis fight. Tyson was verbally abusive up until ring time. {Remember that bizarre news conference?} Lewis beat the cr*p out of Tyson. When Tyson came to he went to Lewis and wiped away the sweat and was acting all whipped. Maybe newsmax is surrendering peacefully.

[davidinalameda]

25. Newmax peaceful?

LOL

remember the French knight in that one Monty Python movie?

that's how peaceful those fascist bastards will go

[Mabus]

39. LOL! n/t

[BlueScreen]

26. Newsmax is a Scaife-funded website

A little surprising that they would post this, unless they are trying to strike fear into the hearts of complacent GOP voters in Florida to GOTV.

[wickerwoman]

37. Or they want us to assume it's already won

and not get out the vote.

Either way, I wouldn't go beyond cautiously optimistic based on this news.

[gulfcoastliberal]

5. Florida early voter checking in

We've gotta watch these thugs. They will try their sleazy tricks to steal it. We'll have to see how the vapor ballots go.

[ahem]

8. In my neighborhood (central, FL)...

There are hundreds or Kerry signs and only a handful of Bush signs. And in my apartment building all 5 apartments have K/E bumperstickers right on the front doors. All 8 tenants and the landlord are strongly Pro-Kerry.

Although I don't think we need Florida to win this election, there's a damn good chance that we'll have it.

[DS1]

9. They shouldn't be releasing this information

Yes, I like that it would show a sudden 'discrepancy' when the vote 'count' does come in Nov 2, yet this will really get the GOP vote out if they think they are really in danger.

It's unfair, and I suspect illegal.

[Piperay]

19. I agree

this information shouldn't be coming out until Nov 2 AFTER all the polls have closed.

[darthmix]

10. Of course it's good news

...but let's not get cocky. I fully expected the early voting to go our way, because we've completely outworked the pubs on that particular front. But we're still a long way from Florida's 27.

[NastyDiaper]

11. But the repugs were huge on absentee.

I'm a Repug georgewbush.com 'team leader' (zero points) and got FOUR separate postcards the last two months begging me to absentee. The Dems have been big on early voting. Please don't read too much into this.

[LiberalEconomist]

13. As Stalin said, it is not who votes but who counts the votes

that matters. Last time around a shit load of people voted for Gore over Bush in Florida. Well, we know how that turned out. I only hope that the GOTV in Florida included voter education this time around.

[Sinnerman]

18. I Agree

[depakid]

14. Not weighted, but still BAD data

this poll isn't generalizable in any way to the electorate- it only says what early voters have reported in a few precints.

[prodigal_green]

22. Zogby said early voters pretty much vote the way

the general electorate votes, it doesn't usually favor one party or another.

[Lorien]

15. I got to meet Kerry today in Orlando

and I told him that he really shouldn't worry about our city, because it's looking really good. He gave me big grin and thank you. :-) I wasn't just blowing smoke; there have been far more Kerry supporters at the polls, far more Kerry signs in my neighborhood than * signs (a big change from 2000). I'm so glad that it's not just my imagination!

Some photos I took at our rally today:









Cool and confident, unlike smirking, shrill Shrub!

[PDX Bara]

31. Great Photos

Of our next President! It will be wonderful have a President who looks as intelligent as he is. The last four years have been an insult to real chimpanzees which I believe are one of the most intelligent non-human primates.

[wryter2000]

16. You go, Florida

:yourock:

[Carolab]

17. Attention: OTHER 49

FOLLOW THIS LEAD.................

[nine30]

20. Not a good idea

Exit poll data should not be revealed this early. It will define the bar for the other side and only encourage them to come out in droves on election day.

[wrate]

42. Maybe that is the reason of the news. To influence the repugs into voting.

n/t

[Rjnerd]

21. Margin of error huge...

With a sample of only 160, the margin of error could be 15% (don't feel like running the calculations). What they did is known in the trade as a substudy. Statisticians hate when the research staff wants to do one, because the whole sample is usually just barely big enough to be reliable, so a subset that is less than half, doesn't have power to show anything.

[Dems Will Win]

24. Agree, but this is merely confirming that Dems voted early in big

numbers. Although you can only vote once and it's a small sample, this still indicates that the total vote could very well be a several percent win for JK.

Plus Russert just announced Kerry is currently ahead by 60,000 votes in Iowa.

Welcome to the new world of early voting and no laws on reporting polls of early voters!

[JusticeForAll]

34. MOE is not too bad...+/- 8% (for 160)

Full calculations for actual respondents polled are shown in my post below. This is still good news statistically, and for the reasons that Dems Will Win gives.

[Zang]

28. Hmm, Newsmax?

even fark.com makes big fun of newsmax, its like the opposite of yellowtimes.org

[coreystone]

29. GO! GO! FLORIDA!!!!! .....

Florida is my adopted (via MoveOn intiative to do so) state.

I so very much wish and hope Florida can come through for Kerry!!



:kick:

[iam]

32. This is IT everyone!

Get of yer asses and Do something with the few remaining days we have! Call a friend, call a sranger, anything to get these animals out of the seat of power. What will you tell your children when they ask you what you did to protect freedom? What will you say when your kids ask why we can see the air? What a tiger is? Why are the police in the LIBRARY? What will you say?

[JusticeForAll]

33. This is good news...

Is the 16% who voted a percentage of the likely voters, 944, or of all voters who responded, 1268? I'm not sure what the 160 in Dems post refers to..16% of 1000?

This makes a difference in figuring out what the MoE is for these statistics.

Likely voter basis: uses 151 respondents +/- 8.1% MoE

Kerry Range = 48%-64%
* Range = 32%-46%

All voters basis: uses 203 respondents +/- 7.0%
Kerry Range = 47% - 63%
* Range = 33% - 45%

It's still good news, and both results fall into acceptable, reasonable ranges of what the actual population may reflect.

[fujiyama]

35. Early voting

looks good in FL and IA, but let's not let up. The big day is Tuesday. We've gotta make sure everyone makes it there.

[The Chronicler]

36. 16% of those who have already cast? Or 16% overall?

[JusticeForAll]

38. The way it is written in the article,

16% have already voted in FL according to this study.

Of those that already voted, they responded Kerry 56%, Bush 39%.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

41. Read it like this...

With 16% reporting, Kerry holds a commanding 56-39% lead. If you hear that on election night, you know who's won. :)

[robbedvoter]

43. Best part of this - it's public knowledge - it is, isn't it?

makes shoplifting a bit harder to sell