Rove Will Go Down in Plames: Do the Numbers!

[skip fox]

The more we learn, the more it seems as though Rove orchestrated the leaking. Today we learn in the NYT that he was rabidly out to get Wilson, a bit rabidly even for some WH staffers. This weekend we learned Cooper probably had more than the two named sources (Rove and Libby) he gave to the grand jury. We also know Rove was the primary source for Cooper and Libby one of his confirming sources. We so know there were at least 6 primary contacts (incl. Miller, Cooper, Novak, and Pincus) as reported. We also know that there were at least two different primary sources (Libby for Novak and Rove for Cooper) and maybe more (remember Miller's source did not explicitly release her, but Cooper's gave him an explicit waver). And we know that 3 contacts confirmed their stories with one or more other "high administration officials." Therefore, there were minimally 9 calls/contacts. All this with every thing we know about Rove strongly suggests coordination, collusion, and/or conspiracy.

Anyone in the administration who discovered the Plame-Wilson-Niger connection would have taken the information to the world master of personal assassination: Rove. (I'm guessing the VP's office first learned the information since they would have felt somewhat responsible for Wilson's trip to Niger. I'm also guessing the topic of leaking the Plame information was discussed at an emergency meeting of the White House Iraq Group). With 6 original calls, Rove would have to make sure that no two officials tried to act as a primary source for a single reporter (it would appear too eager) He would make sure the primary contacts pitched the information in an off-hand manner, not as the main subject, to make the contact think the source is trying to do him or her a favor ("Don't go too far out on this Wilson thing, I don't want you burnt."), etc. He would also have insured that no two official had exactly the same pitch. Then he would have to arrange for a number of officials (probably 3-4) would be ready and willing to confirm the story. Some of the confirming sources could be primary sources for other reporters, but JUST DOING THE NUMBERS one realizes that there had to be at least 4 officials involved and that they coordinated the leak (and maybe later their responses to the prosecutor).

Therefore an indictment appears likely for Rove and 3 others. In addition, Rove will either be indicted for or censured for his role in the coordination.

Rove would have to coordinate! To establish guidelines like: No source should call another's primary contact, Pitch the information off hand, not as the main subject, Make the contact think the source is trying to do him or her a favor ("Don't go too far out on this Wilson thing, I don't want you burnt."), etc. AND Rove would have had to field a group of officials to support the sources stories.

And then the three chuckleheads on Faux News this morning and on Friday, were putting some distance between them and Rove, even though the RNC seems to be in offensive mode.

And then we haven't even begun to ask the question of how Rove got the information. (Doesn't leaking the information to him also constitute a crime?) Did Plame give information to officials as one report suggested? Why did Ashcroft recluse himself? (This rings of possible involvement of Cheney or W.) Did Rove have the proper clearance prior to becoming Deputy Chief of Staff to have seen the material? Or were other federal laws broken to the effect that classified information was used for political purposes? Etc.

I think the great thing we have going for us on this case is Patrick Fitzgerald. By all accounts a fine prosecutor.

[jensmygov]

1. Rove

EXCELLENT ANALYSIS!!! THANKS!!!

[Village Idiot]

2. Nice to see someone else thinking like this...

Rove would have had to put some small timers on to the story first, to leak it initally, then make himself available to confirm it's validity as a senior administration official, to keep him out of harms way...

A very old, but effective trick, making them look less desparate to smear Wilson, since all the big-namers are doing is corroberating, yet gets the smear job done RIGHT.

[skip fox]

3. good point

Oliphant thinks that if Republicans start breaking away from Rove, they will do so almost "all at once." W. is trying to avoid this with a Supreme Court nomination tomorrow.