New Oil Shock ahead as $100 spike looms

[katty]

New oil shock ahead as $100 spike looms

more: http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,,1764412,00.html

Oliver Morgan and Heather Stewart
Sunday April 30, 2006
The Observer


The growing international crisis over Iran's nuclear programme could trigger a catastrophic oil price spike, sending crude prices over $100 a barrel, senior Wall Street analysts are warning.
With prices already at around $72 a barrel, such an increase could mean drivers facing prices of 110p a litre on forecourts, according the the Petrol Retailers Association. Last week Lord Browne, chief executive of BP, warned that prices could rise to £1 as he unveiled bumper $5.27bn profits for the first quarter.

Shell is also expected to announce close to record numbers next week, with analysts expecting profits around $5.57bn, driven largely by the oil price.

A single political shock could be enough to send oil markets into panic, said Adam Sieminski, senior energy economist at Deutsche Bank in New York. 'If we have one more big problem we are going to have triple-digit oil prices.'

[BR_Parkway]

1. I don't think China and Russia would let it get to that price, it would

hurt their own economies too much.

[phantom power]

3. What can they do to stop it?

And if they could stop it, why did they "let" it get to $75/barrel? That's been quite a drag on everybody's economy already.

[bemildred]

4. Russia exports oil. High prices don't bother Russia much.

China you are right about.

[sarcasmo]

2. I drive out of the way to buy from Citgo. We need to continue to pass

on the word about Citgo. To HELL with Shell and Exonn/Mobil.

[cliss]

5. OK: here's what I predict will happen if oil

shoots to $100.00/barrel. It's not impossible, mind you. If we have another summer like 2005, it will happen.

Now, keep in mind that world events are like a pool game: you hit one ball, it hits another, and that ricochets off 2 others. It's a network of events.

1) Gas prices will go through the roof. We are looking at $6.00 per gallon. This will have a profound effect on our economy. It will be an upheaval like nothing we've ever seen before. Trucking companies will go broke, agriculture will have a hell of a time surviving. Prices, everything will go sky-high. People will scramble and try to adjust. They will carpool, ride bikes, cut back on everything except survival. I see people just abandoning their SUV's, not even trying to sell them because nobody wants to buy them.

2) I see global tensions go off the richter scale. ALL countries will feel the pinch. Those countries who use the most oil will feel it the worst, like the US, Europe, Japan. Countries who don't use as much won't feel the pain so much (like India). The US will be gearing up for war against any country which has oil.

3) All oil producing countries will play a major part in this upcoming Inferno. They will be pressured to the MAX to produce more. The problem is - many of them can't.

4) I see Bush folding from this. There is no way he can lead in a situation like this.

5) Suddenly, the world will start to take a VERY close look at Brazil, which is now energy self-sufficient.