Cordesman: Iraq Insurgency has 50-50 chance of success

[Barrett808]

Analysis: Iraq insurgency fights on
By STEVEN R. HURST, Associated Press Writer

...

By week's end al-Maliki's government was forced to declare a state of emergency and shoo its citizens off Baghdad's streets with two hours notice after the tenacious insurgency took the offensive Friday along Haifa Street, just blocks from Iraq's seat of government.

...

"Sectarian and ethnic violence has come to rival the insurgency in terms of casualties and the threat it poses to political, social and economic progress in Iraq," security analyst Anthony H. Cordesman writes in an advance copy of a book he is writing at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"There is less and less difference between insurgency and civil war, and all sides are to some extent guilty of terrorism," he says.

...

"In short," Cordesman writes, "the odds of insurgent success are at best even."

(more)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060624/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_tenacious_insurgency

[kenny blankenship]

1. When revolt against "friendly" gov't and sectarian civil war blend in ways

indistinguishable to western eyes, IT'S TIME FOR US TO GET OUT.

We can help keep them divided and help them to keep killing each other, but we aren't going to put a stop to the violence, bring legitimate political order or fix any of the problems we've made for them-- nor any of the problems they've had with each other for centuries.

The U.S. has a sick, sick messiah complex that it has to get over BEFORE IT KILLS ANOTHER MILLION PEOPLE.
That goes for many Democrats around here no less than the Bible humping FReeptards.

[cliss]

2. 50- 50 chance of success. Really?

I would not bet one dollar on the Iraq race dog. Fifty-fifty odds is actually pretty good. This is about the same as tossing a penny on the sidewalk. You have a 50% chance it will land on heads.

That's damn good odds.

Regarding odds: I've read that about 2 years ago, there was a high-level memo being discussed that pretty much said we would not win in Iraq. By "win" here I mean be able to stay, build those 14 bases, finish that palatial Embassy, control the Middle East.

It's not going to happen.

They already know this in Washington. Right now, they're trying to figure out what to do. They just don't know. They've set in motion this Juggernaut, this Heavy machinery and it's a little tough to just - STOP.

[Barrett808]

3. Agree -- these are very good odds for an insurgency

Strange how Cordesman phrases it as if they "only" have even odds...