StarTribune.com
Tax cuts good for growth?
You often hear the claim, but you don't often hear the evidence for it. And there's a reason.
Douglas Stene
Published: June 19, 2007
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The commonly accepted measure of economic growth is the Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). You can get the truth about tax cuts and economic growth by comparing the different decades. If tax cuts were an economic miracle, you would expect to see more economic growth in the decades of tax cuts and slower growth when taxes were increased.
The real GDP grew 36.9 percent during the '70s, before tax cuts were the fad. During the '80s, after the Reagan tax cuts the real GDP grew 37.8 percent, just slightly better than the '70s. During the '90s, after the Bush I and Clinton tax increases the real GDP grew 38 percent, even better than the '80s. During this decade after the Bush II tax cuts, the real GDP is projected grow 30.7 percent.
The fact is that the best economic growth came after the Bush I and Clinton tax increases, and the least economic growth is projected to be this decade after Bush II tax cuts. One obvious reason for this is that the tax cuts are offset by the borrowing necessary to replace the lost revenue.
What has increased with the tax cuts is the gross federal debt. The gross federal debt tripled in the '80s after the Reagan tax cuts. The debt continued to grow in the early '90s, but was brought under control by the end of that decade. In this decade, the Bush administration projects that we will add $5 trillion in debt and the annual gross interest on that debt will exceed $500 billion a year by 2010. We are not cutting taxes, we are just passing them on to the next generation.
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