Leslie H. Gelb
15 March 2009
.......We can’t defeat the Taleban in Afghanistan, as the last seven years have shown. Numbers are part of the problem: Most Taleban are members of Afghanistan’s majority tribe, the Pashtuns. More confounding, the Taleban and their Qaeda allies have found in northwestern Pakistan a refuge that has proved almost impregnable. These factors make overcoming the enemy in Afghanistan infinitely harder than it was in Iraq.
What we can do is effectively reduce the risk of terrorist attacks from Afghanistan against its neighbours, the United States and its allies. We can do this in a way that would allow for the withdrawal of American forces, though economic and military aid would continue. The first step is to provide significantly increased economic support, arms and training to friendly Afghans as United States combat forces gradually depart over, say, three years. We could use the intervening time to increase present counterinsurgency operations to better protect Afghans and give them a boost to fight on their own, if they have the will.
The second step is to try to separate less extremist elements of the Taleban from their leadership and from Al Qaeda. Obama is already considering reaching out to Taleban moderates, and he could do this through the Afghan government and covert contacts. No group is monolithic once tested with carrots and sticks, as we saw in Northern Ireland and Iraq.
The Taleban are no exception. While most of them want to drive America out, they have no inherent interest in exporting terrorism. As nasty as the Taliban are, America’s vital interests do not require their exclusion from power in Afghanistan, so long as they don’t support international terrorists.
Third, while we should talk to the Taleban, Washington can’t rely on their word and so must fashion a credible deterrent. The more the Taleban set up shop inside Afghanistan, the more vulnerable they will be to American punishment. Taleban leaders must have good reason to fear America’s military reach. Their leaders could be hit by drones or air strikes.
The same goes for their poppy fields, from which they derive considerable income. Most important, Obama must do what the Bush team inexplicably never seemed to succeed in doing—stop the flow of funds to the Taleban that comes mainly through the Arab Gulf states. At the same time, he could let some money trickle in to reward good behaviour.
Fourth, Obama has to ring Afghanistan with a coalition of neighbours to show the Taleban they have no place to seek succour, even after an American departure. The group would include China, India, Russia, NATO allies, and yes, Iran. They all share a considerable interest in stemming the spread of Afghan drugs and Islamic extremism. China and Russia should be more willing to help in this anti-Taleban effort as the American military presence recedes from their sensitive borders.
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http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/opinion/2009/March/opinion_March57.xml§ion=opinion&col=Leslie H. Gelb is the president emeritus of the US Council on Foreign Relations and the author of the forthcoming “Power Rules: How Common Sense Can Rescue American Foreign Policy”edit: NY Times link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/13/opinion/13Gelb.html?_r=1&em