Bush's illegal amnesty and its effect on the 2004 race

[cryofan]

A UPI editorial/analysis:

WASHINGTON, Jan. 8 (UPI) -- President George W. Bush's proposed immigration reform plan may prove to be a masterstroke from a maestro political strategist playing at the top of his game. It may backfire on him, but it probably won't.

....


So far, opposition to the plan from the right has been far stronger up in Colorado than down in Arizona, for example. Howard Dean may even hope to pick up a state or two in the West, where gun ownership is important but gay marriage less so. But at the end of the day, against either Dean or a Wesley Clark, who is now picking up momentum pledging to soak the rich, conservative erosion against Bush will be very small and with the Religious Right mobilized to turn out its base for him, it will not hurt him very much.

The president has no Pat Buchanan lurking in ambush during the primaries as his father faced in 1992. And there appears virtually zero likelihood of a viable third-party figure like Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996 leaching key votes away from the Republican candidate. Nor does Bush risk the fate of Al Gore in seeing millions of votes from his base being leached off the way Ralph Nader sank Gore with his Green Party challenge three years ago.

Finally, the president's initiative is a classic example of the strategic "proactive" or "offense" politics that he and adviser Karl Rove love to practice. As well as playing excellent defense politics, the GOP's dynamic duo revels in winning major support from core constituencies of their flailing opponents.

more at http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20040108-125639-5422r

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Interesting description of Clark's tax plan. I did not realize that it was that drastic a proposal. I like it! And it seems as though it has been many a year since that kind of phrase has been used in a presidential campaign.

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. last time that phrase was used was oh

1932

This is that kind of an election and who knows? We may be in the trongs of a depresion by then

[dreissig]

2. Sly Old Texas Fox

This thumb sucker piece doesn't take into account the effect of the brawling campaign that's certain to emerge. If things remain as they are, Bush will win easily. But there's no reason to make that assumption.

The Bush "home runs" have been hit off the tee, not against actual pitching. He cues up the ball, then hits it deep into right center. His supporters applaud as he circles the bases. This is not what will happen in the real game.

I do not believe that Bush is clever. He's going to have to make decisions on the fly, and even some of his set piece decisions haven't been winners for him. He has lots of negatives going into a re-election campaign.

Let us not forget how energized Democrats are to defeat him. There won't be any carping against the Democratic nominee once that person is identified.

[cryofan]

3. Yes, I think a Dem landslide is possible. And record high participation is

possible. This election is going to be one for the books. I only Dean were half the lefty he pretends to be.