Canadians -- anybody else think Paul Martin's going to have an election ..

[Lisa]

Real soon now?

Okay, I know that summons up some risque imagery. Sorry. But I'm getting the distinct feeling that the Governor-General's going to get a visit from PM the PM in the next couple of months. A few days ago, the government unexpectedly gave the appearance of acting on 2 major issues (the Arar case, and same-sex marriage). The fact that this shoves the issues into the future -- for example, a public inquiry will take months to organize and report back -- is surely not a coincidence.

But they have to give us at least a month to campaign, even for a surprise "snap" election. And we've got that campaign finance reform law in effect now, which makes things a bit different in terms of fundraising.

The NDP have already started to pick candidates and organize volunteers. Saanich-Gulf Islands confirmed its nominee today ... Victoria is set to have their nomination meeting in 3 weeks.

Any guesses as to when the writ's going to be dropped?

[canuckagainstBush]

1. You think it'll be before May? n/t

[Minstrel Boy]

2. Conventional wisdom is saying the writ drops in April for a May vote.

It won't be earlier on account of the Conservative leadership race, which will be settled in March.

Until the mandate runs out an election call is at the PM's discretion, and I've thought there's an off chance he may hold off until the Fall if he can't get his ducks in a row. He is stumbling, though probably not enough to put off a Spring election.

Life-long NDPer here, and I've never been more optimistic about our chances. Layton will be exciting to watch on the campaign trail.

[MrPrax]

5. He is stumbling - no kidding

Good point (I am not the only one to notice)

Remember the school photo-op with the 'paper puppet'--surreal, weird

BUT that was before Martin's less than spectacular performance which I found to be quite interesting as he is a seasoned politician.

CBC seems to be carrying his can quite nicely tho (NOTE: CSL contracts get little attention, but 'snow' in Canada!!! ran as their lead through the whole news cycle)

There are a few potential potholes that might make Paul think twice about going to the polls in the Spring
1) more AF deaths esp due to crap equipment
2) BC scandal could spread - membership scandals, party bad blood in general (come on down, Shelia Copps!)
3) Conservative Mo' and the potential of 'star' candidate entering the fray
4) polling slump (esp in the Liberal heartland of South Ontario that will give the NDP seats)
5) more potential CSL disclosures/Liberal spending scandals (potential problems with Goodale's budget due shortly)
6) American sell-out without solutions to any of the trade problems

Etc etc

But yeah you make a good point--I don't think the Spring date is in stone

[Screaming Lord Byron]

3. The election will be on May 10th - I have it from a few different sources.

[TrogL]

4. OK, I heard near the end of April

from other sources. The later the better for me, otherwise I end up pounding signs into snowdrifts and freezing my tushie off deliverling fliers.

[Minstrel Boy]

6. I can barely contain my glee at the prospect of Belina Stronach

leading the Conservative Party. And it's not impossible. Her camp has the money, and it's intending to buy bulk memberships in Quebec (where the party has no organisation to speak of), and each riding is weighed equally in the leadership campaign.

All three Conservative candidates have negatives, but what an election that would be. And what a debate.